iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Big hit on the GFS, low gets sub 988 right on the benchmark. about 1" qpf over epa, snj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Temps are an issue, and maybe pros can chime in, but the precip intensity would overcome that I would think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Temps are an issue, and maybe pros can chime in, but the precip intensity would overcome that I would think. Looks like a some rain to heavy snow type of deal, but unlike the last storm, this bombs out in time for our area and crashes the temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray8002 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Does anyone ever post in this Region? I spend most of my time in the NY forum and I'm from South Jersey... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Does anyone ever post in this Region? I spend most of my time in the NY forum and I'm from South Jersey... We just have less posters. It is a quality over quantity type thing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Big hit on the GFS, low gets sub 988 right on the benchmark. about 1" qpf over epa, snj assume we're talking wednesday/thursday storm?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Big hit on the GFS, low gets sub 988 right on the benchmark. about 1" qpf over epa, snj It will be interesting to see what the EC does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 assume we're talking wednesday/thursday storm?! I apologize, but yes, we're talking about the Vday storm. GFS has nothing for the weekend storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 assume we're talking wednesday/thursday storm?! I'm on my phone but I would guess so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It will be interesting to see what the EC does. I think the Euro trends north. It's always had a bias of holding back the sw energy too much. There is really no reason for this not to come up further north, as there is no confluence or blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think the Euro trends north. It's always had a bias of holding back the sw energy too much. There is really no reason for this not to come up further north, as there is no confluence or blocking There is a 50-50 low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looking at the soundings, there is a mid-level warm layer that will be overcome by heavy precip, looking like a good bet on 5"-10" on the GFS for EPA/SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 There is a 50-50 low... Yes, but it is not going to do much to shear this out completely. I agree it is a progressive flow, but it will be a pretty potent sw coming across Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looking at the soundings, there is a mid-level warm layer that will be overcome by heavy precip, looking like a good bet on 5"-10" on the GFS for EPA/SNJ Just for laughs, SV maps have 12-18" snow bullseye over SE PA. lol. ANyhow,, on a more serious note, Perplexed at how adamant the GFS is, Inside 84 hours. EIther going to score a major coup, or crash and burn badly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think the Euro trends north. It's always had a bias of holding back the sw energy too much. There is really no reason for this not to come up further north, as there is no confluence or blocking Yeah the 12Z Euro at h5 looked awful. The vort max was all strewn out even though it had a pretty good 850 track. It will be interesting to see if it can consolidate the energy better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 0z GGEM just trended at least 200-300 miles further north lolhttp://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 GFS stubbornly hanging on to storm. Doesn't shear the shortwave like 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 0z GGEM just trended at least 200-300 miles further north lol GEM much less sheared also. Maybe the Euro will come around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ukie is a nice hit also. Nice set of runs so far tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Don't forget about the Ukie... North as well. And as far as temps, Philly S & E might start as RN or a mix initially. By h78 h925 is frozen and your all snow except for perhaps the SE coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Gefs are a decent hit.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nogaps looks ok. North shift on this model too: That's for this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 18Z DGEX was a hit as well fwiw. The Euro stands alone for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Hearing euro is improved but does not look as good as the gfs. Obviously some new data ingested tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's correct^^// way better looking with the storm, little stronger and more Northern stream interaction more comparable to the 0z GFS than it's 12z run. @ 72 hours, the 0z Euro has precip touching halfway up the Delmarva, the 12z euro barely had any precip past VA beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's for this weekend whoops... sorry guys, long weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iverson3 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Great hit on the 06z NAM, colder as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That's correct^^// way better looking with the storm, little stronger and more Northern stream interaction more comparable to the 0z GFS than it's 12z run. @ 72 hours, the 0z Euro has precip touching halfway up the Delmarva, the 12z euro barely had any precip past VA beach. There's much less separation between the northern wave and the southern feature...hence a better outcome on the Euro. It's still not as robust as the GFS has it though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Pretty easy to see why the GFS is showing snow and the Euro is not. GFS is sharper with the northern trough and is more robust. Euro is flatter with the northern trough, less robust although compared to the 12z run it is a much closer look to the GFS last than it was 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 BTW, 6z GFS looks an awful lot like the 0z Euro at 500 mb. The result is a less robust storm...still produces some rain and snow but it's more of a slopfest than a thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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