Quakertown needs snow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 gfs has some precip around abe and north for tuesday otherwise not much else till that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Best thread ever but Tom, you jinxed us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Euro has some light snow Sunday and that's it. Feels great today. Would love a early spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I have a feeling we torch in feb but March will be below avg temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I note enthusiasm and depression over model runs, run to tun, model to model. I don't think we should throw away weather sense for biased models, none of which have any consensus. Smart money on some event taking place based on multiple shortwaves, with ridging to the east, means we get "something". Best shortwave which sets up to the south is Sunday, and I'll put 2-4" on this event for Philly. I'm being intentionally conservative, as this one could surprise if it sets up closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM for Friday is a Sussex County special -- an inch or so down there. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro was a bit weeni'ish in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS is coming on board for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro was a bit weeni'ish in the medium range. yeah 216hr looks interesting for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS is coming on board for Sunday. But the euro is off the board. Also, the gfs with its temps would be a non sticking snow for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 But the euro is off the board. Also, the gfs with its temps would be a non sticking snow for nyc Yeah with temps in the upper 30's at best, it won't amount to much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 But the euro is off the board. Also, the gfs with its temps would be a non sticking snow for nyc For now. GFS has been good this season. Temps aren't a concern on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 For now. GFS has been good this season. Temps aren't a concern on the GFS. Huh? Mid to upper 30s isn't an issue. Granted in future runs it may not but the last run it was. A southerly wind is never good for I 95 and the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice changes overnight for a stronger system on sinday. No matter what the outcome here gives us a much better shot at following systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Huh? Mid to upper 30s isn't an issue. Granted in future runs it may not but the last run it was. A southerly wind is never good for I 95 and the coast. I didn't really look at the soundings. At work right now. South winds during an event sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM for Friday is a Sussex County special -- an inch or so down there. Congrats. Euro was a Long Island Special with its norlun trof on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice changes overnight for a stronger system on sinday. No matter what the outcome here gives us a much better shot at following systems. Its good to see as HM said a couple of days ago that some of the forcing is coming from the Pacific. Hard to see a shut out over the next couple of systems. Conversely, may be difficult to put up widespread crooked numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Its good to see as HM said a couple of days ago that some of the forcing is coming from the Pacific. Hard to see a shut out over the next couple of systems. Conversely, may be difficult to put up widespread crooked numbers. We need southern stream involvement. The northern stream storms are going to be tough unless one digs under us. The euro has majority of them tracking over us or just to our south, which favors nyc on northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nam looks pretty wet. Surface mid 30'S? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nam looks pretty wet. Surface mid 30'S? Eeee its the nam, its been horrible outside 12hrs this year. Though, I'm waiting on soundings for temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 We need southern stream involvement. The northern stream storms are going to be tough unless one digs under us. The euro has majority of them tracking over us or just to our south, which favors nyc on northeast. Atleast we are in the ball game now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM is way out of its range ,but so far healthy precip totals for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM is way out of its range ,but so far healthy precip totals for Sunday. but do to the low track, its snow to rain for philly and surrounding burbs on south. Its hard to get a snow event when you have southerly winds and storm passing to your north. Need the secondary to form faster or further south or primary come south or die faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 We need southern stream involvement. The northern stream storms are going to be tough unless one digs under us. The euro has majority of them tracking over us or just to our south, which favors nyc on northeast. What the southern stream needs is some deer antler spray. Looks like the kind of scenario where elevation would do ok, other less fortunate may see more wetish snow (not 30:1 with this one). Surface forecast temps at this temporal distance skill-wise are so-so. Hard to get it to rain with thicknesses less than 528 so ptype might not be the issue, sticking maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mookiemike Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Started this last night on being bullish for Sunday, though I admit there are equal reasons to dismiss the chances. Everyone has stated most of them already, but I'm relying on the second shortwave in the wagon train to dig farther south than currently modeled. I know I'm new here, not a Pro Met, but I've been successful as the folk in the NYC region know, from my ten years living in NYC. Incredible, but after running there yesterday, for a 15 minute coffee at "Starbucks", for a business connection, I'm going back there again in an hour for meeting two, playing the networking game, bringing together disparate on the surface parties, to a possible "marriage" of joint interests. It seems I can't maintain escape velocity to avoid NYC. Anyway, it is Super Bowl Sunday, so it won't be a total loss if I'm wrong, and better to have tried and lost ( forecasting ) , than never to have tried at all. Hope everyone enjoys their day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM and 09 sref both trended stronger with Sunday system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 What the southern stream needs is some deer antler spray. Looks like the kind of scenario where elevation would do ok, other less fortunate may see more wetish snow (not 30:1 with this one). Surface forecast temps at this temporal distance skill-wise are so-so. Hard to get it to rain with thicknesses less than 528 so ptype might not be the issue, sticking maybe. If it digs far enough south we'll be OK. Again even if its marginal here a bombing low near NE will help us out down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Super Bowl and snow (even if it doesn't stick) = perfect together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 gfs looks better for tomorrow nights snow for phl south, gets .05-.1 into areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Gfs really digging the energy farther south this run. A lot more then 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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