eastonwx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Advisory criteria? STRONG WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN AND NOT SNOW WHEN IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER, SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE ONSET FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT, READINGS MAY NOT RECOVER QUICKLY ENOUGH IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO PRECLUDE SOME PROBLEMS WITH ICE. EVENTUALLY, WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR SOME OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE TIME BEING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 06 gfs/GEFS have backed down a little vs 00z but still bring snow to our area. The GFS is the most NW global. The non-US models GEM/ukie/Euro all shear the shortwave in the middle of the country and keep the storm SE. While the US models SREF/NAM/GFS all maintain a stronger wave and a better storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 NAM being the NAM this morning as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The NAM has it going up through Kentucky and looks to head to Ohio! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Gfs looks like it will be good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS not nearly aggressive as NAM with primary into KY. I think primary into east KY into secondary off NC/VA can be a good set-up for us. This usally happens once or twice a year. May be on the right end of it living up here now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS not nearly aggressive as NAM with primary into KY. I think primary into east KY into secondary off NC/VA can be a good set-up for us. This usally happens once or twice a year. May be on the right end of it living up here now! GFS actually doesn't do this still a good track for 295/ Turnpike northwest. ACY/ MIV/DOV/ GED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Gfs looks way warmer than it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 Gfs looks way warmer than it has been. yup, the low level cold is an issue south of i95...heck it even starts as rain in philly briefly. Till the euro jumps on board I'm not sold on it. Though once we get inside 72 hrs and the gfs still has it then i think the chances start to go up a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It has pushed back the bulk of the precip to between 1 AM and 7 AM on Thursday, which may help with the sticking when it does turn over to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Another thread-the-needle event. Trend North and flood with waa, trend colder and we have a Southern slider. Not too impressive right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Does this look to be a Philly on south event or can RDG and ABE get in on some of it too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Does this look to be a Philly on south event or can RDG and ABE get in on some of it too? You guys, barring a 50-75 mile NW shift, would be fringe right now. A nw tick would help you out otherwise it may just be virga and flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If you just look at 12Z yesterday, 0Z last night and 12Z today, GFS seems to be trending slowly southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z clown map has a 1-2" "jackpot" Philly southern suburbs on northwest. Ratios are going to be awful even if it does snow for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Even if this weeks storm is a dud the pattern looks really good. The day 7 setup looks pretty sweet. I'd be shocked if there wasn't a 6" snowstorm for philly until end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Ensembles continue to be much more amped than the operational GFS. OP Gfs is definitely not alone with this threat, just about every one of it's ensemble members (maybe 9/12) have a good size hit for us. And the model madness continues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Model split continues. 12z GEM is flat, Ukie a little more amped than last night but flatter than GFS. Just have to let it play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Model split continues. 12z GEM is flat, Ukie a little more amped than last night but flatter than GFS. Just have to let it play out. yeah this is what I'm concerned about, the GFS is kinda alone compared to the foreign reliable globals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 yeah this is what I'm concerned about, the GFS is kinda alone compared to the foreign reliable globals. HPC is taking the middle road with a 06 GFS/00z EMCF Ensemble blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z euro is worse than the 0z. Still has the storm exiting hse but has no precip anywhere really. The whole issue is the gfs phases in that northern stream which causes the whole trof to negative tilt. While the euro just shears it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 ECMWF has had a low precipitation bias with several southern systems in past winters. Low track doesn't look that bad on the low res EC I've seen. vort max crosses Delmarva. UKMET not that bad looking through 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 As to the weekend event the euro does show precip like .25 or more. While the setup looks really nice the issue to me is the cold air before hand if a storm does develop The euro has mid 50s on friday before precip comes in. Though still tons of time for it to move one way or the other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 12z euro is worse than the 0z. Still has the storm exiting hse but has no precip anywhere really. The whole issue is the gfs phases in that northern stream which causes the whole trof to negative tilt. While the euro just shears it out Disagree, at H5 the stronger vorticity associated with the wave is further north than 00z, extending up into PA/NJ. Definitely slightly more amplified but still not there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Top map 0z, bottom map 12z Euro. There might be a slightly farther north placement of the vort but the southern system is sheared out and really doesn't appear stronger to me at 500. It's a piece of sh*t flat wave that streams out and really doesn't have much organization to it on this particular run of the Euro. The northern wave is more robust but it doesn't matter since it's so far behind the flat southern wave. There's actually MORE separation between the two features, not less, between 0z and 12z, which may explain why there's less precipitation since there's very little phasing going on. The southern wave being much weaker does not help this cause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Mt. Holly's Ice forecast for early Mon. AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 10, 2013 Author Share Posted February 10, 2013 Disagree, at H5 the stronger vorticity associated with the wave is further north than 00z, extending up into PA/NJ. Definitely slightly more amplified but still not there. That looks better. But the whole surface reflection is worse than 0z. 0z had precip into Delaware and south jersey. This run just looks like a sheared mess with not much precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Consistant GFS v Consistant Euro 5 days out.. Not a tough choice to lean to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 That 12z ec just looked weird for Wed/Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 See no changes with 18z NAM compared to its 12z run so it should likely show a storm again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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