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February 15-MOrch possible wintry threats


tombo82685

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Advisory criteria?

STRONG WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY JET WILL CAUSE THE PRECIPITATION TO BE RAIN AND NOT SNOW WHEN IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION. HOWEVER, SOME LINGERING LOW LEVEL SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THE ONSET FROM AROUND THE INTERSTATE 78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD. EVEN THOUGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AROUND OR SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT, READINGS MAY NOT RECOVER QUICKLY ENOUGH IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES TO PRECLUDE SOME PROBLEMS WITH ICE.  EVENTUALLY, WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY FOR SOME OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE TIME BEING.
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06 gfs/GEFS have backed down a little vs 00z but still bring snow to our area. The GFS is the most NW global. The non-US models GEM/ukie/Euro all shear the shortwave in the middle of the country and keep the storm SE. While the US models SREF/NAM/GFS all maintain a stronger wave and a better storm threat.

prec.png

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GFS not nearly aggressive as NAM with primary into KY. I think primary into east KY into secondary off NC/VA can be a good set-up for us. This usally happens once or twice a year. May be on the right end of it living up here now! 

GFS actually doesn't do this still a good track for 295/ Turnpike northwest. ACY/ MIV/DOV/ GED  :yikes:

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12z euro is worse than the 0z. Still has the storm exiting hse but has no precip anywhere really. The whole issue is the gfs phases in that northern stream which causes the whole trof to negative tilt. While the euro just shears it out

 

 

Disagree, at H5 the stronger vorticity associated with the wave is further north than 00z, extending up into PA/NJ. Definitely slightly more amplified but still not there.

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post-105-0-59697300-1360522606_thumb.jpg

 

Top map 0z, bottom map 12z Euro.

 

There might be a slightly farther north placement of the vort but the southern system is sheared out and really doesn't appear stronger to me at 500.  It's a piece of sh*t flat wave that streams out and really doesn't have much organization to it on this particular run of the Euro.  The northern wave is more robust but it doesn't matter since it's so far behind the flat southern wave.

 

There's actually MORE separation between the two features, not less, between 0z and 12z, which may explain why there's less precipitation since there's very little phasing going on.  The southern wave being much weaker does not help this cause.

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Disagree, at H5 the stronger vorticity associated with the wave is further north than 00z, extending up into PA/NJ. Definitely slightly more amplified but still not there.

That looks better. But the whole surface reflection is worse than 0z. 0z had precip into Delaware and south jersey. This run just looks like a sheared mess with not much precip

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