RedSky Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That will be our storm near 3" qpf in eastern PA the "tombo" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 near 3" qpf in eastern PA the "tombo" storm the valentine storm is mitchells Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 i think the future Feb 16th-28th Thread will be epic. Maybe Mike should create it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 I'll take the Morch thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 march is worthless in my eyes anyways, i hope its warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 18z GEFS.. looking @ the ensemble individuals, some pretty weenie solutions in there. Good consensus with a storm somewhere on the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Steve, another shot around the 14th and then around Presidents day, looks cold after so Feb is setting up nicely plus HM has spoken The one thing that has and continues to prevent me from being more confident in our area is the NAO. You just can't call for some major-historic snowstorm in our area / south without it. Situations like this week can still produce for our northern areas and New England but we need something better than a PV revolution / transient N. Atlantic ridge if we want big snows further south. Having said that, the models are definitely moving in the right direction with awesome lows closing off (cyclonic wave breaking) through the next 10 days. This could bring on a legit -NAO in time for PD weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6z GEFS still looking nice for the GAINESTORM! Not 2 bad looking storm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6z GEFS still looking nice for the GAINESTORM! I have been watching that one in hope of some nice pow pow for Stowe. It would be a nice treat before our return to the PA hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 6z GEFS still looking nice for the GAINESTORM! Not 2 bad looking storm: that is a pretty nice blocky pattern up there in canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 that is a pretty nice blocky pattern up there in canada. Yeah, Not bad at all. That -EPO is kicking ass too on the western side. The 6z GFS cuts it inland, but the blocking it develops is pretty nice towards the Davis straights. Fun times ahead though track these bigger systems. Better than "hey look, im getting a 2 mile wide band of a coating"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wouldn't mind a few inland runners or jumpers if it means getting a -NAO in time for PD weekend/beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wouldn't mind a few inland runners or jumpers if it means getting a -NAO in time for PD weekend/beyond. I wish you people would stop wishing for my first week at my new job (regional, over the road truck driver) to be a hell week... All joking aside, I'm glad that you, and the other good mets, take the time to post your thoughts in this forum. They may not be what I want to hear, but they are appreciated. Does it really look "good" for President's Day week? I've been watching the GFS flip back and forth regarding that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I wish you people would stop wishing for my first week at my new job (regional, over the road truck driver) to be a hell week... All joking aside, I'm glad that you, and the other good mets, take the time to post your thoughts in this forum. They may not be what I want to hear, but they are appreciated. Does it really look "good" for President's Day week? I've been watching the GFS flip back and forth regarding that week. Hey, no problem. I don't mind posting in here. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS looks terrific at 132 hrs, looks like it might go full SECSY on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 GFS looks terrific at 132 hrs, looks like it might go full SECSY on us. Meh... The GFS is basically a rainstorm but a good snow event for the interior, possibly our most NW dude in the forum. I don't like situations where we have to rely on when something decides to swing out. If it waits too long, it gets crushed; if it speeds ahead, it goes well inland. At this point, I'd give it a 25% chance at pure snowstorm for the Delaware Valley and 75% for all other options (rain, miss). Got to get lucky with the timing, so I certainly could be way off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 more rain than snow for VD hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 How's the next two chances look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 euro goes off carolinas to the fishes for valentines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 My storm looking more and more suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 0z GEFS (for VDAY) different than the 240hour storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 6z gfs run keeps the potential's around after warmup. could be a fun ride into spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Meh... The GFS is basically a rainstorm but a good snow event for the interior, possibly our most NW dude in the forum. I don't like situations where we have to rely on when something decides to swing out. If it waits too long, it gets crushed; if it speeds ahead, it goes well inland. At this point, I'd give it a 25% chance at pure snowstorm for the Delaware Valley and 75% for all other options (rain, miss). Got to get lucky with the timing, so I certainly could be way off. Today's run of the GFS has a perfect placement of the previous system's low (acts like a 50-50) and the next southern low for VD. If we can get a nice timing here, we'll see mostly snow. We see how timing can be your friend or not your friend with today's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Well 06z was a beauty for the vd storm. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Today's run of the GFS has a perfect placement of the previous system's low (acts like a 50-50) and the next southern low for VD. If we can get a nice timing here, we'll see mostly snow.We see how timing can be your friend or not your friend with today's storm. And here comes your storm @ 162..... about the GAINESTORM, looks funky with the eveolution of the southern stream. Briefly closes it off (very small area), and enhances the precip most likely. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Today's run of the GFS has a perfect placement of the previous system's low (acts like a 50-50) and the next southern low for VD. If we can get a nice timing here, we'll see mostly snow. We see how timing can be your friend or not your friend with today's storm. That whole setup just seems tricky. We have to rely on the cold air to establish on the coastal plain and the storm not bumping north. Its good to see the euro and its ens offshore? The kicker on its heels probably won't allow it to cut and the storm next tuesday timeframe if it blows up could be your 50/50 like you mentioned. The cold air source just seems suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 And here comes your storm @ 162..... about the GAINESTORM, looks funky with the eveolution of the southern stream. Briefly closes it off (very small area), and enhances the precip most likely. We shall see. I've got no storm. lol but I appreciate the sentiment. There were a lot of people all over this month too; then again, there were a lot that said winter is over. Glad to see that the threats continue. I laughed at the 00z ECMWF solution for day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I agree HM. Better than tracking clippers. That's one helluva signal on H5 on today's gfs. Obviously, truncation screws the pooch on this run, but fun to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I agree HM. Better than tracking clippers. That's one helluva signal on H5 on today's gfs. Obviously, truncation screws the pooch on this run, but fun to look at. The trough modeled after the VD storm is exactly the kind of response the MJO-AAM signal was suggesting for the last few weeks. Will it just get very cold or will we have another opportunity at a monster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 The D5 strorm has been bouncing around but keeps coming back maybe we can get lucky.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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