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February 15-MOrch possible wintry threats


tombo82685

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Steve, another shot  around the 14th and then around Presidents day, looks cold after so Feb is setting up nicely :) plus HM has spoken :)

The one thing that has and continues to prevent me from being more confident in our area is the NAO. You just can't call for some major-historic snowstorm in our area / south without it. Situations like this week can still produce for our northern areas and New England but we need something better than a PV revolution / transient N. Atlantic ridge if we want big snows further south.

Having said that, the models are definitely moving in the right direction with awesome lows closing off (cyclonic wave breaking) through the next 10 days. This could bring on a legit -NAO in time for PD weekend.

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that is a pretty nice blocky pattern up there in canada.

Yeah, Not bad at all. That -EPO is kicking ass too on the western side. The 6z GFS cuts it inland, but the blocking it develops is pretty nice towards the Davis straights.

Fun times ahead though track these bigger systems. Better than "hey look, im getting a 2 mile wide band of a coating".....

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I wouldn't mind a few inland runners or jumpers if it means getting a -NAO in time for PD weekend/beyond.

 

I wish you people would stop wishing for my first week at my new job (regional, over the road truck driver) to be a hell week... :P

 

All joking aside, I'm glad that you, and the other good mets, take the time to post your thoughts in this forum. They may not be what I want to hear, but they are appreciated. Does it really look "good" for President's Day week? I've been watching the GFS flip back and forth regarding that week.

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I wish you people would stop wishing for my first week at my new job (regional, over the road truck driver) to be a hell week... :P

All joking aside, I'm glad that you, and the other good mets, take the time to post your thoughts in this forum. They may not be what I want to hear, but they are appreciated. Does it really look "good" for President's Day week? I've been watching the GFS flip back and forth regarding that week.

Hey, no problem. I don't mind posting in here.

;-)

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GFS looks terrific at 132 hrs, looks like it might go full SECSY on us. 

 

Meh...

The GFS is basically a rainstorm but a good snow event for the interior, possibly our most NW dude in the forum. I don't like situations where we have to rely on when something decides to swing out. If it waits too long, it gets crushed; if it speeds ahead, it goes well inland. At this point, I'd give it a 25% chance at pure snowstorm for the Delaware Valley and 75% for all other options (rain, miss). Got to get lucky with the timing, so I certainly could be way off.

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Meh...

The GFS is basically a rainstorm but a good snow event for the interior, possibly our most NW dude in the forum. I don't like situations where we have to rely on when something decides to swing out. If it waits too long, it gets crushed; if it speeds ahead, it goes well inland. At this point, I'd give it a 25% chance at pure snowstorm for the Delaware Valley and 75% for all other options (rain, miss). Got to get lucky with the timing, so I certainly could be way off.

Today's run of the GFS has a perfect placement of the previous system's low (acts like a 50-50) and the next southern low for VD. If we can get a nice timing here, we'll see mostly snow.

We see how timing can be your friend or not your friend with today's storm.

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 Today's run of the GFS has a perfect placement of the previous system's low (acts like a 50-50) and the next southern low for VD. If we can get a nice timing here, we'll see mostly snow.We see how timing can be your friend or not your friend with today's storm.

And here comes your storm @ 162.....

about the GAINESTORM, looks funky with the eveolution of the southern stream. Briefly closes it off (very small area), and enhances the precip most likely. We shall see.

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Today's run of the GFS has a perfect placement of the previous system's low (acts like a 50-50) and the next southern low for VD. If we can get a nice timing here, we'll see mostly snow.

We see how timing can be your friend or not your friend with today's storm.

That whole setup just seems tricky. We have to rely on the cold air to establish on the coastal plain and the storm not bumping north. Its good to see the euro and its ens offshore? The kicker on its heels probably won't allow it to cut and the storm next tuesday timeframe if it blows up could be your 50/50 like you mentioned. The cold air source just seems suspect to me. 

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And here comes your storm @ 162.....

about the GAINESTORM, looks funky with the eveolution of the southern stream. Briefly closes it off (very small area), and enhances the precip most likely. We shall see.

I've got no storm. lol but I appreciate the sentiment. There were a lot of people all over this month too; then again, there were a lot that said winter is over. Glad to see that the threats continue. I laughed at the 00z ECMWF solution for day 10.

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I agree HM. Better than tracking clippers.

That's one helluva signal on H5 on today's gfs. Obviously, truncation screws the pooch on this run, but fun to look at.

 

The trough modeled after the VD storm is exactly the kind of response the MJO-AAM signal was suggesting for the last few weeks. Will it just get very cold or will we have another opportunity at a monster?

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