phlwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 BTW, I just ask the 2/13 storm get delayed to 2/14. Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 This is the raw Euro. ENS is not much different although the gradient is a bit looser. You aren't getting 12" of snow anywhere in PA per this run. So we'll mark you down as ruling out 50:1 snow ratios. party pooper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 FWIW... 12z ECM EPS Control agrees with the ECM track, is more amped and colder... 6-12" eastern PA from about Quakertown north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 BTW, I just ask the 2/13 storm get delayed to 2/14. Thanks in advance. So you don't have to fork over $100 for a Valentine's Dinner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So you don't have to fork over $100 for a Valentine's Dinner? No, that's on 2/15 regardless (res already set). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Huge battle between GFS and Euro around Boston. GFS = 1-3 inches Euro = 24+ inches May decide supremacy this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Wife is 9 months pregers. Our first. I am banking on big snow on the day it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Anyone think the Euro could be over amp'ing the northern stream? (Like it's tended to do this winter?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 Anyone think the Euro could be over amp'ing the northern stream? (Like it's tended to do this winter?) Honestly Bri, I think everything and anything is in the realm of possibilities from a hit to cloudy skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 The GFS makes more sense to me at this point given the state of the NAO a more ene component to the storm but phasing too late for any of us including New England as I see it right now. However it is nice to see the NE wind tonight could the NAO be showing up a little bit because really it is our only hope for the Friday to Saturday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 fwiw i just saw the euro indiv ens members and about 12-14 of them out of the 51 bring good snow into the area. with 7 of them being 6 inches or more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 So, I have a Friday morning meeting in Albany (was going to drive up night before). Guess I should think about canceling if I don't want to get stuck there into the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 fwiw i just saw the euro indiv ens members and about 12-14 of them out of the 51 bring good snow into the area. with 7 of them being 6 inches or more Lucky! I think the key piece is the ULL hitting the west coast and how much it's able To pump up that ridge. It's transient, but good timing makes that Northern vort dig a bit mores we run the risk of torching, but it's what we need to get hit by the CCB an get our snows. The quicker, the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 fwiw here is the cips analog guidance and the mean and median snowfall off hr 72 of gfs mean median Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 Gotta love that little 6" dot directly over my little town on the mean. Edit, there is some science to that dot. As Isotherm and others have pointed out during nor'easter's the north east wind off the atlantic and raritan bay enhances precip over Monmouth primarily due to orographic left. The hills along the Atlantic and bay side rise up to 420" asl to provide a little extra lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 if the 0z euro heads in the 18z gfs direction NE forum will implode. luckily they have the 0z gfs to view as a filler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 fwiw here is the cips analog guidance and the mean and median snowfall off hr 72 of gfs mean median What's mean and median? Either way those both look good for all of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 fwiw i just saw the euro indiv ens members and about 12-14 of them out of the 51 bring good snow into the area. with 7 of them being 6 inches or more so about 25% of them from today's "noon" run... what was it from last night's run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 so about 25% of them from today's "noon" run... what was it from last night's run? someone posted it on twitter, just saw the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdamobile Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 if the 0z euro heads in the 18z gfs direction NE forum will implode. luckily they have the 0z gfs to view as a filler They are already chewing their nails and asking questions about how much weight do you put into the 18z gfs. If the 0z gfs goes that way they better block all the entrances to the bridges up there. This certainly does have a feeling of the way the EURO painted our 6-12" to a coating storm a few weeks back. While the GFS said nope. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 someone posted it on twitter, just saw the 12z run. just curious if we're trending the right way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What's mean and median? Either way those both look good for all of usi believe mean is average, Median would be the middle analogue. a single event.correct me if i'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 What's mean and median? Either way those both look good for all of us Mean, median and mode are three different kinds of statistical averages for a given set of numbers. Mean: The arithmetic average of a set of numbers. Median: The middlemost number in a set of number arranged in order. Mode: The value in a set of numbers that appears the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 6, 2013 Author Share Posted February 6, 2013 just curious if we're trending the right way From what i have read i think they are trending better. But they still have to trend some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 This to me may be all or nothing from the nj turnpike northwest. If the low comes up the coast, phase I would think dynamical cooling would change rain to snow that would be heavy. If the low moves out to sea or east, little interaction we have rain showers perhaps mixed with snow. Also I see the euro control ensemble it was one of Tombo's hits for most of the region. NAM really isn't that far away from being a home run but it can't make contact and is a strike out run If moderate to heavy precipitation was falling on this NAM run on Friday it would have been cooler from 295 northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 If that has wintery chances you got the thread just like hm has this one if it occurs GFS is inland. Still would be thread worthy by the weekend . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 GFS is inland. Still would be thread worthy by the weekend . From this far out thats pretty close to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 For what it's worth euro has a better look than GFS for potential valentines day storm Day 7 low headed northeast out of the gulf not too much of a 50/50 almost want to say a valentines day 2007 look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 18z gfs crushes the poconos boston style valentines day but it could involve sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2013 Share Posted February 6, 2013 That will be our storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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