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February 15-MOrch possible wintry threats


tombo82685

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The GFS makes more sense to me at this point given the state of the NAO a more ene component to the storm but phasing too late for any of us including New England as I see it right now.

 

However it is nice to see the NE wind tonight could the NAO be showing up a little bit because really it is our only hope for the Friday to Saturday storm.

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fwiw i just saw the euro indiv ens members and about 12-14 of them out of the 51 bring good snow into the area. with 7 of them being 6 inches or more

Lucky!

I think the key piece is the ULL hitting the west coast and how much it's able To pump up that ridge. It's transient, but good timing makes that Northern vort dig a bit mores we run the risk of torching, but it's what we need to get hit by the CCB an get our snows. The quicker, the better.

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Gotta love that little 6" dot directly over my little town on the mean.

Edit, there is some science to that dot. As Isotherm and others have pointed out during nor'easter's the north east wind off the atlantic and raritan bay enhances precip over Monmouth primarily due to orographic left. The hills along the Atlantic and bay side rise up to 420" asl to provide a little extra lift.

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if the 0z euro heads in the 18z gfs direction NE forum will implode.

luckily they have the 0z gfs to view as a filler ;)

 

They are already chewing their nails and asking questions about how much weight do you put into the 18z gfs. If the 0z gfs goes that way they better block all the entrances to the bridges up there. This certainly does have a feeling of the way the EURO painted our 6-12" to a coating storm a few weeks back. While the GFS said nope. We shall see! 

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What's mean and median? Either way those both look good for all of us

 

 
Mean, median and mode are three different kinds of statistical averages for a given set of numbers.
Mean: The arithmetic average of a set of numbers.
Median: The middlemost number in a set of number arranged in order.
Mode: The value in a set of numbers that appears the most.
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This to me may be all or nothing from the nj turnpike northwest. If the low comes up the coast, phase I would think dynamical cooling would change rain to snow that would be heavy. If the low moves out to sea or east, little interaction we have rain showers perhaps mixed with snow. Also I see the euro control ensemble it was one of Tombo's hits for most of the region. NAM really isn't that far away from being a home run but it can't make contact and is a strike out run If moderate to heavy precipitation was falling on this NAM run on Friday it would have been cooler from 295 northwest. 

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