Heisy Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Surface temp looks warm on the EURO, I just think it's a long shot for Philly to get anything significant, sorry to seem like a debbie downer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So far Feb has delivered.\ I was in snow Friday heading to cabin and experience one of the worst Squall snows in the poconos. White out conditions produced 3-4 inches of snow and icy roads. It snowed Sat at the cabin It snowed Sunday at the cabin It snowed Monday at the shore house It snowed Tuesday at the shore house. While the amounts are minor it simply has been cool to "be in winter" for a nice stretch. Tonight....light snow and now I hear of honking for Friday and Next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Looking at 12 Euro ensemble mean looks like southern system takes over a little faster. Need to look at individual members to see what was going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Is the 12z Euro showing any snow in Philadelphia? I know the temp profile and the 6 hr map suggests it *may* end as snow but is there any raw data that says snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Is the 12z Euro showing any snow in Philadelphia? I know the temp profile and the 6 hr map suggests it *may* end as snow but is there any raw data that says snow? only map i have seen so far cuts it off at the pa tpk right about ttn and it has 1-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 only map i have seen so far cuts it off at the pa tpk right about ttn and it has 1-3 1-3 north of that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 1-3 north of that? no, 1-3 down to that and the map gets cut off. So it could go further south, I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 no, 1-3 down to that and the map gets cut off. So it could go further south, I'm not sure. Am I allowed to post the WB Euro snowfall image or not allowed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Am I allowed to post the WB Euro snowfall image or not allowed? No, the admin on here doesn't want it. Just give outline ex... phl to rdg 1 inch.. 3 inch line ttn to avp etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 no, 1-3 down to that and the map gets cut off. So it could go further south, I'm not sure. Thanks... (I'm always skeptical on the rain ending as snow scenarios that it indeed ends as snow in the city...I'm not worried about it for those NE of Philly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The snow areas shown on the ECM actually match up with Mount Holly's briefing package well. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/phi/briefing/packages/current_briefing.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 guessing this would be a heavy wet snow and not leaf blower snow one of those silly snow maps for the ecmwf posted in NE thread shows 7-8" in upper bucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Ehh, I doubt Philly proper sees much of any white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 one of those silly snow maps for the ecmwf posted in NE thread shows 7-8" in upper bucks The weatherbell maps on snow have issues. I saw the map referenced...7" into Upper Montco and 10" in Schuylkill County, really? There's not even that much QPF that falls! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 As much as I love snow I think that's a dumb idea lol, no reason to put lives in jeopardy drivin up there. How so? Driving IN the storm, yeah.... driving up just AHEAD of the storm, no. I would presume he'd rent a hotel room someplace nice and spend most of the storm walking around in it. Edit: Nvrmnd, saw this was addressed. That's what happens when you sleep through the busiest portion of the posting day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 How so? Driving IN the storm, yeah.... driving up just AHEAD of the storm, no. I would presume he'd rent a hotel room someplace nice and spend most of the storm walking around in it. Yeah he said before the storm lol, I presumed he meant during, and I pictured him drivin in the storm in a little geo metro or something haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Heard 6-12" on the euro ens between Philly- Lehigh valley ? Highly doubtful, just what I saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Heard 6-12" on the euro ens between Philly- Lehigh valley ? Highly doubtful, just what I saw. Considering the QPF on the ENS BARELY has the LV and Philly over .75, 12" is highly doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 (map via SV...if there's an issue, go ahead and yank). This is the raw Euro. ENS is not much different although the gradient is a bit looser. You aren't getting 12" of snow anywhere in PA per this run. Even getting 6" in Bucks or Montgomery may be tough to do unless it falls 100% as snow, which does not seem likely south of 78 since the 0 line creeps near there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Considering the QPF on the ENS BARELY has the LV and Philly over .75, 12" is highly doubtful. I figured. Just trying to confirm/ non confirm from what i saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The weatherbell maps on snow have issues. I saw the map referenced...7" into Upper Montco and 10" in Schuylkill County, really? There's not even that much QPF that falls! They obviously use the JB snow coversion equation e=must snow more squared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Also the EC appears to be catching on to my idea about a storm on the 13th. Let the storm parade begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Also the EC appears to be catching on to my idea about a storm on the 13th. Let the storm parade begin. If that has wintery chances you got the thread just like hm has this one if it occurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If that has wintery chances you got the thread just like hm has this one if it occurs Great call by HM for Friday. He had this pegged a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The 13th-14th time period definitely does look interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Abc sayin BIG event thurs night and fri with snow and ice north of Philly, showin snow on us thurs night and heavy snow on us Friday not until noon does it turn from blue to pink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The weatherbell maps on snow have issues. I saw the map referenced...7" into Upper Montco and 10" in Schuylkill County, really? There's not even that much QPF that falls! WeatherBELL map was realistic. Had 1-3" north of I-76 and 3-6" north of I-80. You must have been looking at something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 WeatherBELL map was realistic. Had 1-3" north of I-76 and 3-6" north of I-80. You must have been looking at something else. Not an unreasonable forecast. I guess this winter that would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 WeatherBELL map was realistic. Had 1-3" north of I-76 and 3-6" north of I-80. You must have been looking at something else. At second glance it was actually a map through 9 days (the hr 216 part I didn't see when I made my comment...and that included next week's "threat"). This was the map in reference: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39166-feb-8th-9th-do-we-finally-get-a-coastal/page-38#entry2075152 That said, 1-3 north of 76 is probably more 1 than 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That said, 1-3 north of 76 is probably more 1 than 3. Completely agree... unless the trend continues to colder/earlier phase. I saw the SV image you also posted... and that is something else to take into consideration. Sharp cutoff isn't because of track as much as it is the dry slot screw zone that occurs with the transfer of energy to the coastal at 78.... 78 looked like crap and had the dry slot over much of eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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