am19psu Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Moves NE at 84. Will come inside the benchmark. Congrats New England and New York State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Moves NE at 84. Will come inside the benchmark. Congrats New England and New York State. I refuse to step near the NE subforum over the next 5 days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I haven't seen the euro yet (I wait for free sites womp) but it sounds like it has shifted to a faster phase and CCB development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It is going to be devestating watching a blizzard near miss friday as our rain ends with a snow shower maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I haven't seen the euro yet (I wait for free sites womp) but it sounds like it has shifted to a faster phase and CCB development? Yes that's what I'm reading in the NY and NE threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I haven't seen the euro yet (I wait for free sites womp) but it sounds like it has shifted to a faster phase and CCB development? Very similar to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 One post in NE thread is talking 2.5" QPF all frozen. Yes, faster phase. I haven't seen myself, but that's what is being thrown around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It is going to be devestating watching a blizzard near miss friday as our rain ends with a snow shower maybe Just remeber what happens when you are in the bullseye 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I haven't seen the euro yet (I wait for free sites womp) but it sounds like it has shifted to a faster phase and CCB development? thats correct. Hour 78, 996 low sitting east of Va beach/ chesapeake bay... @ 0z, same time frame, it was 1004mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 3 points come to mind quickly: 1. I picked a great year to move to S NJ from NW NJ. 2. Internal dynamics and wave interactions can bring significant changes in a relatively short period of time. I still remember the HPC Mar 2001 discussion at 72 hr that basically said NJ would be paralyzed. 3. People will underestimate the potential impact this will have initially because it has been a long while since a wind tunnel like this has set up in a winter storm. There will be significant wind gusts / a widespread blizzard with pressures like that in the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 gawd lawdy, SNE/BOston is crushed!@! 84hrs, its 992.. 90hrs its 980mb, 96 it gets down to 976... Trip to boston anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 So what's the p-type for se Pa on this run of the Euro? Definitely trending better each run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I haven't seen the euro yet (I wait for free sites womp) but it sounds like it has shifted to a faster phase and CCB development? The northern vort dug a bit more this run compared to last, leading to an earlier phase and earier ccb development. It's also much colder than the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 def starts as rain. mid levels are warmed a good bit by 78 hrs.. 540 line is back towards poconos. But precip is light because of the northern stream. Somewhere on the order of .1-.25 (hour 78). heavier as you get S&E of lehigh valley. .75"-1" hits cape may county. 84 gets interesting with the temp profiles. Thicknesses crash into central nj with the 850s, would prob be a wet paste for eastern pa/elevated areas/NW NJ. Maybe Se pa?? surface line is still back towards Poconos/scrnton area. @90, there's still some lingering precip eastern chesco to BGM and points east on the order of .1-.25, more as you head into NW NJ at this point, boston is getting pummeled with 1.75"-2" of liquid in 6hrs... ( ALL SNOW) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS clown map. Parts of LI get six inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 One post in NE thread is talking 2.5" QPF all frozen. Yes, faster phase. I haven't seen myself, but that's what is being thrown around. Check that. donsutherland1 saying 3.49" QPF frozen for BOS from model output. Whether or not it verifies, puts one heck of a smile on my face just seeing that forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 2.5" NE , crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 the transient ridge out west is a little more pumped, causing the northern stream to dig a bit more. Little bit helps here and there,but that window is getting smaller for SE PA. Earlier phase is where its at! CCB FTW (whoever gets it) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If this EURO was 48 hrs out I'd def make a road trip to Boston...anyone with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Another storm developing @ 180hrs on EURO, more cold air in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I haven't seen the euro yet (I wait for free sites womp) but it sounds like it has shifted to a faster phase and CCB development? Check your gmail...its epic for new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If this EURO was 48 hrs out I'd def make a road trip to Boston...anyone with me? I honestly would if i wasn't headed to the poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 72-84hrs 2m temps to warm for any excitement here. 90hr wind for us, snow flurries? 204hr looks good for phl n/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 HM strikes again what a beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 What a bomb and three big winter storms on the Euro in little over a week. For all those whiners, many times in the past we've missed out on the first few storms as the pattern changed only to cash-in later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Euro is crazy big, but you have to imagine the QPF figures come down closer to the event - they almost always do. At least they always do around PHL metro haha. I don't follow Boston specials very often. Question for the progged -NAO though: since the pacific has been driving this winter, will a -NAO at this point really make much difference? At least the STJ is finally in on the action. Too bad the cold has left at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 After a closer examination of the euro, I think I'm going to have to make a thread. To me, it is mostly snow in northern NJ, so that's close enough for a thread. Also, as the storm's arriving, the temps are cooler than the GFS too with the euro's better resolution. If you are in the developing CCB (eastern and northern NJ, perhaps NE PA), I don't care what your lower level temps are, you are snow and snowing hard. The obvious caveat here is a warm nose above 850mb that I cannot see. Unfortunately, this solution is based on s/w madness so this whole thing could come down from its current "epic" status for NE. Finally, I don't think I'm a big fan of the next system and the euro does something odd with the Plains trough (misses a phase). Let's wait and see how the ensembles handle this because it looks funny. If the euro is a little too slow / overphased off the NE coast, that could be affecting the Plains trough. I still like 2/20-22 for the next threat but I could be wrong about the in between period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 #climo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 #climo It's got to be sweeet huh? I can't remember the last time I made a storm thread man. I feel like I should celebrate when we are under the "3.49 QPF bomb" but whatever... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 It's the JMA...but JMA support for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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