Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

February 15-MOrch possible wintry threats


tombo82685

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 929
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I haven't seen the euro yet (I wait for free sites womp) but it sounds like it has shifted to a faster phase and CCB development?

thats correct.

Hour 78, 996 low sitting east of Va beach/ chesapeake bay... @ 0z, same time frame, it was 1004mb.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 points come to mind quickly:

 

1. I picked a great year to move to S NJ from NW NJ. :axe:

 

2. Internal dynamics and wave interactions can bring significant changes in a relatively short period of time. I still remember the HPC Mar 2001 discussion at 72 hr that basically said NJ would be paralyzed.

 

3. People will underestimate the potential impact this will have initially because it has been a long while since a wind tunnel like this has set up in a winter storm. There will be significant wind gusts / a widespread blizzard with pressures like that in the NE.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I haven't seen the euro yet (I wait for free sites womp) but it sounds like it has shifted to a faster phase and CCB development?

 

The northern vort dug a bit more this run compared to last, leading to an earlier phase and earier ccb development. It's also much colder than the GFS 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

def starts as rain. mid levels are warmed a good bit by 78 hrs.. 540 line is back towards poconos. But precip is light because of the northern stream. Somewhere on the order of .1-.25 (hour 78). heavier as you get S&E of lehigh valley. .75"-1" hits cape may county.

84 gets interesting with the temp profiles. Thicknesses crash into central nj with the 850s, would prob be a wet paste for eastern pa/elevated areas/NW NJ. Maybe Se pa?? surface line is still back towards Poconos/scrnton area.

@90, there's still some lingering precip eastern chesco to BGM and points east on the order of .1-.25, more as you head into NW NJ

at this point, boston is getting pummeled with 1.75"-2" of liquid in 6hrs... ( ALL SNOW)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One post in NE thread is talking 2.5" QPF all frozen.  Yes, faster phase.  I haven't seen myself, but that's what is being thrown around.

 

Check that.  donsutherland1 saying 3.49" QPF frozen for BOS from model output.  Whether or not it verifies, puts one heck of a smile on my face just seeing that forecast. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the transient ridge out west is a little more pumped, causing the northern stream to dig a bit more. Little bit helps here and there,but that window is getting smaller for SE PA. Earlier phase is where its at! CCB FTW (whoever gets it)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Euro is crazy big, but you have to imagine the QPF figures come down closer to the event - they almost always do.  At least they always do around PHL metro haha.  I don't follow Boston specials very often.

 

Question for the progged -NAO though: since the pacific has been driving this winter, will a -NAO at this point really make much difference?  At least the STJ is finally in on the action.  Too bad the cold has left at this point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

After a closer examination of the euro, I think I'm going to have to make a thread. To me, it is mostly snow in northern NJ, so that's close enough for a thread. Also, as the storm's arriving, the temps are cooler than the GFS too with the euro's better resolution.

 

If you are in the developing CCB (eastern and northern NJ, perhaps NE PA), I don't care what your lower level temps are, you are snow and snowing hard. The obvious caveat here is a warm nose above 850mb that I cannot see.

 

Unfortunately, this solution is based on s/w madness so this whole thing could come down from its current "epic" status for NE.

 

Finally, I don't think I'm a big fan of the next system and the euro does something odd with the Plains trough (misses a phase). Let's wait and see how the ensembles handle this because it looks funny. If the euro is a little too slow / overphased off the NE coast, that could be affecting the Plains trough.

 

I still like 2/20-22 for the next threat but I could be wrong about the in between period.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...