HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 HM i think you should start a friday threat thread. You have been all over this storm, so its fitting you should get the honors. Period after friday's storm keeps looking better. Brief warm-up then a cold period with better storm threats. GEFS has been very consistent on a good pattern If we get any trend toward a colder solution this afternoon/evening, I'll do the honors! I agree that winter is far from over and that 2/20 time period still holds interest. I'm not so sure about the west based -NAO but I'll look into it later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 If we get any trend toward a colder solution this afternoon/evening, I'll do the honors! I agree that winter is far from over and that 2/20 time period still holds interest. I'm not so sure about the west based -NAO but I'll look into it later. sounds good then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 sounds good then. Should we dedicate the thread to the wonderful posters in the NE forum, who stand the best chance at getting something good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 anyone think we should keep fridays potential talk in here? keep the medium range thread clear of storm threat talk? HM said if things trended cooler later, he would make a separate thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Should we dedicate the thread to the wonderful posters in the NE forum, who stand the best chance at getting something good? +1 hahaha you are the creator of the thread, what you choose to name it is solely up to you. If we get colder solutions I'm really expecting a good title, so don't let me down. I'm going to move all this over to the feb 1-15 threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 anyone think we should keep fridays potential talk in here? keep the medium range thread clear of storm threat talk? HM said if things trended cooler later, he would make a separate thread. yea i'll move it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Should we dedicate the thread to the wonderful posters in the NE forum, who stand the best chance at getting something good? Add NY too for good luck. This threat reminds me a little of the 69 Lindsay storm. very painful memories in SE Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That is the analog that JB has been pushing for the last week he has been looking at this storm. That one gave PHL and Balt - 3" / Chesco 2" / DC 5"/NYC 20" and BOS 11" - if that came to pass it would be PHLs biggest storm of the year! Add NY too for good luck. This threat reminds me a little of the 69 Lindsay storm. very painful memories in SE Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah, this is not ideal for the Mid Atlantic and it is interesting to see why this period did get signaled in the long range (from over a month out) but didn't quite make the "KU" checklist. The "split flow on the heels of a retreating cold source" setup always produces a threat. However, this is the first time we've seen a nice interaction with a decent high to the north. How quickly the cold erodes is something that modeling still struggles with to this day. Also, small details in s/w strength, will make a huge difference on the things you mention like how quickly the low transfers/takes over. It is possible E NJ catches the developing CCB with this one and flashes back over to a heavy wet snow. Wouldn't it be fitting after the 11/6-7 event?!?! haha But dude, I'm not getting snow sooo you havent been right with much of anything this winter Seriously though, it is awesome to see this threat materialize at the very least. It will get lost in the boards because snow results are all that matter to most, but in terms of a split flow threat during the retreating cold pattern call goes, great job from weeks out. Unfortunately the original hopes of some NAO help, and up to more recently a more +PNA are not panning out well with this, but ultimately you can argue that is the seasonal tendencies muddling/adjusting the threat to what it has become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 ^^^^ +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Should we dedicate the thread to the wonderful posters in the NE forum, who stand the best chance at getting something good? Why thank you..lol. I got my flags raised here..never like seeing the beautiful work of art painted perfectly 4 days out, but we'll see. We aren't all bad..I know a few busted your balls...but I think it comes down to many not understanding what an outlook is or thoughts presented. Sorry they don't always work out...tis the business afterall. We know it...sometimes weenies don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Not a single person can complain this winter as to this is better then last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 But dude, I'm not getting snow sooo you havent been right with much of anything this winter Seriously though, it is awesome to see this threat materialize at the very least. It will get lost in the boards because snow results are all that matter to most, but in terms of a split flow threat during the retreating cold pattern call goes, great job from weeks out. Unfortunately the original hopes of some NAO help, and up to more recently a more +PNA are not panning out well with this, but ultimately you can argue that is the seasonal tendencies muddling/adjusting the threat to what it has become. The position of the block is awful and definitely keeps this from being something more. The PNA situation is okay and really anything more "perfect" in that department may have brought on a solution more like the 00z Sun ECMWF run or something crazy like that. Seasonal tendencies are a funny thing because we are sort of giving this "force" that dictates things when in all actuality it really doesn't apply. The tropical forcing went through classic phase 8-1 with a huge +AAM spike and split flow. This really isn't anything like winter 2012-13 so far...but I do know what you mean about things just not being harmonious this year. The NAO responds, it seems, at the worst time for the Pacific and vice versa. There probably is something to that besides our "bad luck." By the way, you have to watch phase 2-4 octants in March. They can be sneaky and sometimes memorable. If we rush through the IO, then this point won't matter. Next MJO phase shift across the E PAC / Atlantic should occur late March but what happens early Mar? I also see a MT spike in 10 days and we are very much similar to mid-late Dec right now in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 But dude, I'm not getting snow sooo you havent been right with much of anything this winter Seriously though, it is awesome to see this threat materialize at the very least. It will get lost in the boards because snow results are all that matter to most, but in terms of a split flow threat during the retreating cold pattern call goes, great job from weeks out. Unfortunately the original hopes of some NAO help, and up to more recently a more +PNA are not panning out well with this, but ultimately you can argue that is the seasonal tendencies muddling/adjusting the threat to what it has become. Agree on call. Haven't had this type of threat all year. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Why thank you..lol. I got my flags raised here..never like seeing the beautiful work of art painted perfectly 4 days out, but we'll see. We aren't all bad..I know a few busted your balls...but I think it comes down to many not understanding what an outlook is or thoughts presented. Sorry they don't always work out...tis the business afterall. We know it...sometimes weenies don't. You are one of the reasons I go over there and read the forum (along with most of the mets there). But I simply don't have the strength anymore to deal with that level of ignorance and posting...which is a shame because I like talking with the core of your group. There is definitely a lot that can go wrong so I wish you the best of luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 You are one of the reasons I go over there and read the forum (along with most of the mets there). But I simply don't have the strength anymore to deal with that level of ignorance and posting...which is a shame because I like talking with the core of your group. There is definitely a lot that can go wrong so I wish you the best of luck. Well I hope you don't stay away....this met certainly appreciates your thoughts and has learned a few things for sure. The banter crap will stay in those threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Dang HM. What a call. Trending colder. When do you start a topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS rain for us but trending, lol NE, Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 What a bomb. Euro-like solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS rain for us but trending, lol NE, Congrats! Took a big step there. Hopefully we continue the cooler trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Interesting that there have been february 2006 analogs popping up as Fridays storm is similar to my eyes. That blizzard was only barely cold enough to snow as it wrapped up tight and hugged the coast then mild weather followed. Need to get the 850 track further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 H850 track is uggggly that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Still need a bit of a shift this far south. The primary is a double-edged sword. Its needed to amplify the flow but it brings in warm air aloft. That is a nice high position with a CAD signature which could easily trend stronger. Has an ice/sleet look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 H850 track is uggggly that run I've seen much worse. At least it transfers! And to address when I'll make a thread, it would be after all of today's data and with a good reason. The biggest change from last week to this week on the modeling besides resolving the southern stream better is the situation with the polar vortex. I told you guys it was due to revolve southward 2/8-10 but the models were treating the clipper waves as useless. The PV displacement acts as a temporary 50/50 type of low, even with the neutral NAO signal. This is perfect for New England, should phasing of the streams occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 The position of the block is awful and definitely keeps this from being something more. The PNA situation is okay and really anything more "perfect" in that department may have brought on a solution more like the 00z Sun ECMWF run or something crazy like that. Seasonal tendencies are a funny thing because we are sort of giving this "force" that dictates things when in all actuality it really doesn't apply. The tropical forcing went through classic phase 8-1 with a huge +AAM spike and split flow. This really isn't anything like winter 2012-13 so far...but I do know what you mean about things just not being harmonious this year. The NAO responds, it seems, at the worst time for the Pacific and vice versa. There probably is something to that besides our "bad luck." By the way, you have to watch phase 2-4 octants in March. They can be sneaky and sometimes memorable. If we rush through the IO, then this point won't matter. Next MJO phase shift across the E PAC / Atlantic should occur late March but what happens early Mar? I also see a MT spike in 10 days and we are very much similar to mid-late Dec right now in that department. Yea I guess the PNA comment was more a comment to the whole pacific situation..Good point that it may actually benefit us in this situation, but typically i wouldnt think you'd want to see a trough like that crashing onshore the west coast that closely spaced to our northern shortwave...But this is far from a typical setup. The tropical forcing/MJO has been a pretty tricky and elusive at times through this period as you well know. It was fairly straight forward when we came alive in octants 3-4-5 mid-jan, and when we entered 7 timed with the stratosphere, the cold regime seemed pretty straightforward too. It's been anything but that since and I'm still a bit confused as to where we are at and where we are heading down the road. It just seems muddled and confusing to me. I do think the GFS is inaccurate with its portrayal of looping in phase 8 though, and this is likely contributing to a cold bias in the 11-15 day...In the end I think the cold is centered further west like the euro suite..and i think the positive heights in Greenland may be another faux NAO signal...but we shall chat later I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 some of the gefs do show a "snowier" outlook for the friday storm. We catch the very end of the ccb or the streams stay separate and we get the northern stream shenanigans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 some of the gefs do show a "snowier" outlook for the friday storm. We catch the very end of the ccb or the streams stay separate and we get the northern stream shenanigans yeah on the whole the warming with the primary is weaker. An improvement since 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 here we go, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yea I guess the PNA comment was more a comment to the whole pacific situation..Good point that it may actually benefit us in this situation, but typically i wouldnt think you'd want to see a trough like that crashing onshore the west coast that closely spaced to our northern shortwave...But this is far from a typical setup. The tropical forcing/MJO has been a pretty tricky and elusive at times through this period as you well know. It was fairly straight forward when we came alive in octants 3-4-5 mid-jan, and when we entered 7 timed with the stratosphere, the cold regime seemed pretty straightforward too. It's been anything but that since and I'm still a bit confused as to where we are at and where we are heading down the road. It just seems muddled and confusing to me. I do think the GFS is inaccurate with its portrayal of looping in phase 8 though, and this is likely contributing to a cold bias in the 11-15 day...In the end I think the cold is centered further west like the euro suite..and i think the positive heights in Greenland may be another faux NAO signal...but we shall chat later I'm sure. The GFS ensemble has been pretty persistent with the coming -NAO for about three to four days. Will be interested in the discussion since I think the GFS may be a tad better this year than the Euro,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Sitting off the Capes at 78... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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