HM Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 The problem is we dont have a lot of cold air to work with, and by the time the streams actually phase the storm gets kicked pretty fast because of the kicker out west. The kicker won't be an issue but the cold air is an issue. There would be two possibilities for snow, neither of which are strong at this point: 1. Initial waa / precip that moves in before the warmth takes over. 2. The exploding CCB / comma either just offshore or along the coast that could flip the rain back to snow. This would be more likely to our Northeast at this point (maybe southern New England). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 4, 2013 Share Posted February 4, 2013 18Z GFS SAYS "euro a crazy" model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 If it matters much the last three or four clippers underperformed out here. There just is no moisture source with any of these systems (minus the front last week). We've had moderate calls say 3 to 5 and 4 to 6 all not verify in this area--it has been more like 1 to 2 each event. I just don't think it's in the cards for anything significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 If it matters much the last three or four clippers underperformed out here. There just is no moisture source with any of these systems (minus the front last week). We've had moderate calls say 3 to 5 and 4 to 6 all not verify in this area--it has been more like 1 to 2 each event. I just don't think it's in the cards for anything significant. thanks for the observation. The radar is not very encouraging for more than an inch, but we shall see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS just caved to the euro.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS just caved to the euro.... nice..snow or more disappointment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 There's no phase, so the northern stream and southern stream battle for precip. We get dry slotted to some extent. Looks like the pononos would have sleet/snow issues (bank on it, im driving up to the Poconos after work). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 nice..snow or more disappointment? rain for immediate burbs, maybe some mixed bag precip lehigh valley poconos this run verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 GFS just caved to the euro.... Has been slowly catching on to stength of southern stream feature. Nice hit for NE. Threat for northern parts of out area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 There's no phase, so the northern stream and southern stream battle for precip. We get dry slotted to some extent. Looks like the pononos would have sleet/snow issues (bank on it, im driving up to the Poconos after work). Yeah looks like we get slotted between the two systems since there is no phase. Pretty light precip on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I can't believe pages upon pages get written about these terrible car toppers and dustings yet it seems the potential for something more substantial is out there on Friday/Saturday and nothing is written. Reading other threads it looks like the trend is there for a coastal to spin up off the VA Capes and take a fairly favorable track for us. I know the GFS output is warm but it seems like it has moved towards at least cooler solutions. What did the Euro run last night show for us? What do we need to look for for this to give the PHL area at least some frozen? Still like 4 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 I can't believe pages upon pages get written about these terrible car toppers and dustings yet it seems the potential for something more substantial is out there on Friday/Saturday and nothing is written. Reading other threads it looks like the trend is there for a coastal to spin up off the VA Capes and take a fairly favorable track for us. I know the GFS output is warm but it seems like it has moved towards at least cooler solutions. What did the Euro run last night show for us? What do we need to look for for this to give the PHL area at least some frozen? Still like 4 days to go. Taking the EC output literally... it shows you (N DE) rain. BL is too warm. By the time it blows up enough to bring cold air back down, its way off to the northeast. In fact, it shows the majority in NYC as rain too, though there's a big discussion over there about how if it bombs fast enough (a bit faster than shown) it can draw the cold air down into the CCB and snow heavy there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 after seeing the 0z euro warmth i lost excitement for friday/saturday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 I can't believe pages upon pages get written about these terrible car toppers and dustings yet it seems the potential for something more substantial is out there on Friday/Saturday and nothing is written. Reading other threads it looks like the trend is there for a coastal to spin up off the VA Capes and take a fairly favorable track for us. I know the GFS output is warm but it seems like it has moved towards at least cooler solutions. What did the Euro run last night show for us? What do we need to look for for this to give the PHL area at least some frozen? Still like 4 days to go. Because it really hasn't been shown a threat at all to deliver snow to the region except for the pocs maybe. Could it change maybe, but things need to start changing faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Because it really hasn't been shown a threat at all to deliver snow to the region except for the pocs maybe. Could it change maybe, but things need to start changing faster. That's arguable. I, of course, see the same temperatures that you do; but, are we to assume there would be no additional cooling from now until Friday with that high positioning and inverted ridge? I think there will be additional cooling, assuming the models are reasonable with handling the s/w, but I'm not sure by how much (as you've suggested). Obviously, I think we would all rather be talking about precip type issues/increased moisture than crappy clippers at this point. I think PHL has recorded snowfall every day since 1/31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 That's arguable. I, of course, see the same temperatures that you do; but, are we to assume there would be no additional cooling from now until Friday with that high positioning and inverted ridge? I think there will be additional cooling, assuming the models are reasonable with handling the s/w, but I'm not sure by how much (as you've suggested). Obviously, I think we would all rather be talking about precip type issues/increased moisture than crappy clippers at this point. I think PHL has recorded snowfall every day since 1/31. That is very true it could trend colder. IMHO, to see snow out of this, that northern stream needs to dig further south or die faster to limit the WAA. The coastal needs to get going faster to pull in the cold source up north. Even if that northern stream died out and it was cold enough for snow. It's 12 hours of precip that amounts to .25-.4 of qpf verbatim on the euro. With temps above freezing even if that would be snow that would have a hard time sticking. That could all change if the other things listed change for the better. You can see on the euro we get caught as you called it with the past storm "the screw zone" from the dying northern storm and the coastal firing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That is very true it could trend colder. IMHO, to see snow out of this, that northern stream needs to dig further south or die faster to limit the WAA. The coastal needs to get going faster to pull in the cold source up north. Even if that northern stream died out and it was cold enough for snow. It's 12 hours of precip that amounts to .25-.4 of qpf. With temps above freezing even if that would be snow that would have a hard time sticking. You can see on the euro we get caught as you called it with the past storm "the screw zone" from the dying northern storm and the coastal firing. Yeah, this is not ideal for the Mid Atlantic and it is interesting to see why this period did get signaled in the long range (from over a month out) but didn't quite make the "KU" checklist. The "split flow on the heels of a retreating cold source" setup always produces a threat. However, this is the first time we've seen a nice interaction with a decent high to the north. How quickly the cold erodes is something that modeling still struggles with to this day. Also, small details in s/w strength, will make a huge difference on the things you mention like how quickly the low transfers/takes over. It is possible E NJ catches the developing CCB with this one and flashes back over to a heavy wet snow. Wouldn't it be fitting after the 11/6-7 event?!?! haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That's arguable. I, of course, see the same temperatures that you do; but, are we to assume there would be no additional cooling from now until Friday with that high positioning and inverted ridge? I think there will be additional cooling, assuming the models are reasonable with handling the s/w, but I'm not sure by how much (as you've suggested). Obviously, I think we would all rather be talking about precip type issues/increased moisture than crappy clippers at this point. I think PHL has recorded snowfall every day since 1/31. That is very true it could trend colder. IMHO, to see snow out of this, that northern stream needs to dig further south or die faster to limit the WAA. The coastal needs to get going faster to pull in the cold source up north. Even if that northern stream died out and it was cold enough for snow. It's 12 hours of precip that amounts to .25-.4 of qpf. With temps above freezing even if that would be snow that would have a hard time sticking. You can see on the euro we get caught as you called it with the past storm "the screw zone" from the dying northern storm and the coastal firing. yeah, its like a double whammy for Our region. Because the northern stream holds on, the WAA is a bit stronger, and precip is held up north and suppressing the southern stream precip field. Lots need to happen, as a couple of you guys explained, to get frozen here. There is a decent high, (1032+) on most guidance, its just the northern stream slides under it, and limiting its effect on the coastal plain. At this point, hoping the poconos can cash in, I'm heading up there friday for the weekend with friends for snowboarding. Hoping my GF can get more than a few inches (of snow!!) for the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Yeah, this is not ideal for the Mid Atlantic and it is interesting to see why this period did get signaled in the long range (from over a month out) but didn't quite make the "KU" checklist. The "split flow on the heels of a retreating cold source" setup always produces a threat. However, this is the first time we've seen a nice interaction with a decent high to the north. How quickly the cold erodes is something that modeling still struggles with to this day. Also, small details in s/w strength, will make a huge difference on the things you mention like how quickly the low transfers/takes over. It is possible E NJ catches the developing CCB with this one and flashes back over to a heavy wet snow. Wouldn't it be fitting after the 11/6-7 event?!?! haha That is also my one concern with this huge storm. If i remember right for that storm wasn't the northern s/w came in stronger the last 24 hrs and basically kicked it further east. I wonder if that could happen this year. Seems this winter has been dominated by the northern stream storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Agree that friday is a long shot. Need the southern system to bomb out a little quicker than the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That is very true it could trend colder. IMHO, to see snow out of this, that northern stream needs to dig further south or die faster to limit the WAA. The coastal needs to get going faster to pull in the cold source up north. Even if that northern stream died out and it was cold enough for snow. It's 12 hours of precip that amounts to .25-.4 of qpf verbatim on the euro. With temps above freezing even if that would be snow that would have a hard time sticking. That could all change if the other things listed change for the better. You can see on the euro we get caught as you called it with the past storm "the screw zone" from the dying northern storm and the coastal firing. Tom/HM: Don't we need cyclogenesis South of the Va capes to really get in on the precip shield as the low bombs out and that comma head throws precip N-NW of the SLP center? With the Euro depicting SLP genesis off the VA capes, that always strikes me as too close to our region for good precip field and the moisture just surges North as the SLP winds up 150 mi off ACY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 That is also my one concern with this huge storm. If i remember right for that storm wasn't the northern s/w came in stronger the last 24 hrs and basically kicked it further east. I wonder if that could happen this year. Seems this winter has been dominated by the northern stream storms. Wait till people...weenies start talking about how strong the southern stream looks bc of thunderstorms and latent heat release causing a bigger phase.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Tom/HM: Don't we need cyclogenesis South of the Va capes to really get in on the precip shield as the low bombs out and that comma head throws precip N-NW of the SLP center? With the Euro depicting SLP genesis off the VA capes, that always strikes me as too close to our region for good precip field and the moisture just surges North as the SLP winds up 150 mi off ACY... se va is usually where i want to see it. It also comes down to how fast it takes over. You could have a strong primary and a coastal that starts getting going over northeast nc and it still screws us because of the primary. The euro actuallyhas the southern stream storm down in the southeast but really gets its act togeth once to the outer banks. But do to the location and strength of that northern stream storm it hands it off later, missing us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Agree that friday is a long shot. Need the southern system to bomb out a little quicker than the 00z Euro. Well I wouldn't call it a long shot though. The 6z GFS only warms the 850mb temps above 0C because the CCB fails to develop in time. But you have to admit that it has an impressive southern stream wave which it did NOT have up until last night. Actually, it trended on the 18z run but failed to have a northern s/w. I would say things are 65/35 that this is mostly a winter type of system and not rain. My biggest worry is the compressing flow somehow prevents either s/w from interacting and we get the classic separation as tombo suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Tom/HM: Don't we need cyclogenesis South of the Va capes to really get in on the precip shield as the low bombs out and that comma head throws precip N-NW of the SLP center? With the Euro depicting SLP genesis off the VA capes, that always strikes me as too close to our region for good precip field and the moisture just surges North as the SLP winds up 150 mi off ACY... Cyclogenesis along the East Coast due to upper level features depends on what you are dealing with. This isn't quite the classic 500mb trough swinging through the Mid Atlantic where this type of climo applies. The southern stream s/w needs to interact more with the northern stream s/w than what the GFS/euro depict but it cannot be too soon either. If the northern s/w digs into the amplifying southern s/w around the VA-Delmarva coasts, then the CCB should develop in time for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherQ Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 se va is usually where i want to see it. It also comes down to how fast it takes over. You could have a strong primary and a coastal that starts getting going over northeast nc and it still screws us because of the primary. The euro actuallyhas the southern stream storm down in the southeast but really gets its act togeth once to the outer banks. But do to the location and strength of that northern stream storm it hands it off later, missing us. Strikes me with the setup that this is a true SNE special and DC to NYC will be in the cold rain....unless HM can jump a NOAA research plane and set up his CCB over the Philly metro.....or we get some synoptic setup to dam the cold air in over our region....do not know how you would stay cold in the current look with warm air advection off the ocean frying the BL....but y'all are much smarter than me in these things.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Cyclogenesis along the East Coast due to upper level features depends on what you are dealing with. This isn't quite the classic 500mb trough swinging through the Mid Atlantic where this type of climo applies. The southern stream s/w needs to interact more with the northern stream s/w than what the GFS/euro depict but it cannot be too soon either. If the northern s/w digs into the amplifying southern s/w around the VA-Delmarva coasts, then the CCB should develop in time for our area. HM i think you should start a friday threat thread. You have been all over this storm, so its fitting you should get the honors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 Period after friday's storm keeps looking better. Brief warm-up then a cold period with better storm threats. GEFS has been very consistent on a good pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 5, 2013 Author Share Posted February 5, 2013 Strikes me with the setup that this is a true SNE special and DC to NYC will be in the cold rain....unless HM can jump a NOAA research plane and set up his CCB over the Philly metro.....or we get some synoptic setup to dam the cold air in over our region....do not know how you would stay cold in the current look with warm air advection off the ocean frying the BL....but y'all are much smarter than me in these things.... In future runs just watch that northern stream. You need that to dig further south. Its weaker and further north, it will limit the WAA but it will also cause a later phase imho. We could though get the junk from the WAA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 5, 2013 Share Posted February 5, 2013 HM i think you should start a friday threat thread. You have been all over this storm, so its fitting you should get the honors. Agreed. If he's feeling it, then all is not lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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