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February Banter Thread


burgertime

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It doesn't look as impressive to me for some reason.  Sure there will be a few impulses floating around in the flow, coming through TN and the southern apps.  I just don't see anything that would actually drop measurable snow (except for the upslope areas of the mountains).  Maybe if we can get one to rotate in during the night, then we could see a small accumulation for the valley areas, but I just think it will be hard to score accumulations (and especially keep them) b/c of the time of year without a synoptic snowstorm.  In other words, KTRI might see enough qpf for 4-5 inches of snow over 3-4 days, but never have more than a dusting to an inch on the groung.  Highs in the mid 30s are fine if you want to see snow this time of year, but not if you want to see and keep accumulations from a series of minor events.  We need the heavy stuff.

All that said, I would LOVE to be wrong.

 

Yeah, I have to say that it looks like the typical NW flow snow showers/flizzards that I used to get back when I lived in the lowlands of WV (near Charleston) for a few winters.  Sure, you see snow a lot, but it rarely accumulates and even when it does accumulate to a dusting or maybe on rare occasions a coating, it melts away in 30 minutes after the snow shower as the sun comes back out.  Typically, the snow showers dissipate after dark, too, which makes it worse as far as accumulations go.  Sometimes, you can get lucky, though, so you never know and, of course, I could be wrong!  Any snow is better than no snow, in any case!

 

Of course, things are different in the mountains.  These things can work out well for them.

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It doesn't look as impressive to me for some reason.  Sure there will be a few impulses floating around in the flow, coming through TN and the southern apps.  I just don't see anything that would actually drop measurable snow (except for the upslope areas of the mountains).  Maybe if we can get one to rotate in during the night, then we could see a small accumulation for the valley areas, but I just think it will be hard to score accumulations (and especially keep them) b/c of the time of year without a synoptic snowstorm.  In other words, KTRI might see enough qpf for 4-5 inches of snow over 3-4 days, but never have more than a dusting to an inch on the groung.  Highs in the mid 30s are fine if you want to see snow this time of year, but not if you want to see and keep accumulations from a series of minor events.  We need the heavy stuff.

All that said, I would LOVE to be wrong.

 

You are probably right and getting much accumulation in the valley is a long shot.  But, I guess I've just adjusted my expectations over the past decade or so; the prospect of having periods of snow showers from Thursday evening through Sunday evening is exciting to me.  A few weekends ago we had bursts of moderate snow on a Saturday morning and Sunday morning.  It didn't pile up, but it was fun to drive around in.  I'm mainly encouraged that the GFS has been so consistent with showing this and that it is strung out over 4 days.

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Ok so then why do you all use the models then?

 

I think the models can be used to show potential. Then you have to use meterology to try to figure out exactly what will happen. I think a lot of times for central NC that is really hard to do, though, unless you have the absolutely perfect setup. But that rarely happens, and even minor changes can mean a forecast can bust either on the low or high side.

 

It seems this winter the models have shown better things in the long range than the meterology showed. Now the meterology looks great for a big winter storm around here within the next couple of weeks. However, if the models aren't going to show anything, then all we have is a great setup but with nothing to show for it.

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It doesn't look as impressive to me for some reason. Sure there will be a few impulses floating around in the flow, coming through TN and the southern apps. I just don't see anything that would actually drop measurable snow (except for the upslope areas of the mountains). Maybe if we can get one to rotate in during the night, then we could see a small accumulation for the valley areas, but I just think it will be hard to score accumulations (and especially keep them) b/c of the time of year without a synoptic snowstorm. In other words, KTRI might see enough qpf for 4-5 inches of snow over 3-4 days, but never have more than a dusting to an inch on the groung. Highs in the mid 30s are fine if you want to see snow this time of year, but not if you want to see and keep accumulations from a series of minor events. We need the heavy stuff.

All that said, I would LOVE to be wrong.

I agree with this. LR GFS looks pretty much cold and dry with perhaps a few clippers moving through. This is normal in a NW flow pattern. Doesn't favor big systems in general.

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WilkesboroDude, on 25 Feb 2013 - 15:12, said:snapback.png

I startled about 10-15 birds when I opened the door outside. 

 

Anyone in WNC seeing the same thing?

 

 

 

I would think it would have to be someone in your immediate neighborhood.  with mountains and clouds I doubt visibility is that high. 

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