metalicwx366 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Only NC exists on this sub-forum. Happy? Exactly. If you say something about your area, people will whine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I noticed some jesting earlier about sun angle and ground temps. Let me make a serious post for a change. There are three main factors that affect accumulation. solar radiation ground temp snow rate Solar radiation is by far the least important. Unless there are drastic changes that have major snowstorms occurring with full sun it will remain the least important. Ground temp can be important in certain circumstances combined with precip rate. The rate of precipitation is far and away the most significant factor in accumulating snow. Lets take the, hopefully, upcoming event as an example. In the areas where the models show .3 to .4 everyone is assuming a 10 to one ratio and saying the model is predicting three to four inches of snow. Well it is and it isn't. It may snow 3 to 4 inches worth but that doesn't mean there will be anything like that on the ground. Taking the high end of .4. If that falls fairly evenly spread out over an 8 hours period, with the occasional lulls we usually get, even an inch of snow on the ground will be hard to come by. It is over 60º today. This is where ground temps, combined with a low precip rate severely limits accumulations. The ground would cover, especially grassy areas, and then reappear in a precip lull. This would repeat itself again and again without ever really moving into the realm of accumulating snow. There would be much wailing and gnashing of teeth. If we get that same .4 inches of precip as snow in a 2 hour period we would end up 2 or 3 inches on the ground and everyone would be happy. So, my fellow weenies and mets as well, it's up to you to predict accumulations. The models are just giving you total amounts of precip. I'm convinced we would be much happier in here if most folks would use the models as tools, instead of following them as gospel from 10 days out. Just 2 cents worth from the funny old man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Just for the record, as a TN poster.....................I am wishing you guys the best of luck with this one. I mentioned earlier in the week when everyone was jumping that this sure looked like a central Carolinas and points north and east type of system and to keep an eye on it. It's good to see these recent trends for yall. I hope it continues and you have snowballs to throw and snowmen to make come the weekend! Yup...except for Jeremy.... Still the best regionalism moment ever was when Cosgrove wished an inch of ice on the Carolina posters....IIRC he did not like our definition of CAD. It was missing Sargasso and Sonoran I think... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yup...except for Jeremy.... Still the best regionalism moment ever was when Cosgrove wished an inch of ice on the Carolina posters....IIRC he did not like our definition of CAD. It was missing Sargasso and Sonoran I think... That was the best!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It might snow but my maple trees are heading into spring quite a bit early. Took this a few minutes ago. Quite a bit early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 NWS JAX no longer putting frozen precip in the forecast. Just cold chasing moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm looking at that ICE STORM next Thursday/Friday, really cold air around! lol .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S..THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OFRAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm looking at that ICE STORM next Thursday/Friday, really cold air around! lol .THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. .THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S. Hey at least it doesn't have freezing rain in the upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I noticed some jesting earlier about sun angle and ground temps. Let me make a serious post for a change. There are three main factors that affect accumulation. solar radiation ground temp snow rate Solar radiation is by far the least important. Unless there are drastic changes that have major snowstorms occurring with full sun it will remain the least important. Ground temp can be important in certain circumstances combined with precip rate. The rate of precipitation is far and away the most significant factor in accumulating snow. Lets take the, hopefully, upcoming event as an example. In the areas where the models show .3 to .4 everyone is assuming a 10 to one ratio and saying the model is predicting three to four inches of snow. Well it is and it isn't. It may snow 3 to 4 inches worth but that doesn't mean there will be anything like that on the ground. Taking the high end of .4. If that falls fairly evenly spread out over an 8 hours period, with the occasional lulls we usually get, even an inch of snow on the ground will be hard to come by. It is over 60º today. This is where ground temps, combined with a low precip rate severely limits accumulations. The ground would cover, especially grassy areas, and then reappear in a precip lull. This would repeat itself again and again without ever really moving into the realm of accumulating snow. There would be much wailing and gnashing of teeth. If we get that same .4 inches of precip as snow in a 2 hour period we would end up 2 or 3 inches on the ground and everyone would be happy. So, my fellow weenies and mets as well, it's up to you to predict accumulations. The models are just giving you total amounts of precip. I'm convinced we would be much happier in here if most folks would use the models as tools, instead of following them as gospel from 10 days out. Just 2 cents worth from the funny old man. I agree with this. Soil temps (and I would think surface temps would coorelate) have a significant impact on accumulations IMO. GSP discussed it in pretty good detail in their afternoon disco today. Sun angle? Hill o' beans... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I noticed some jesting earlier about sun angle and ground temps. Let me make a serious post for a change. There are three main factors that affect accumulation. solar radiation ground temp snow rate Solar radiation is by far the least important. Unless there are drastic changes that have major snowstorms occurring with full sun it will remain the least important. Ground temp can be important in certain circumstances combined with precip rate. The rate of precipitation is far and away the most significant factor in accumulating snow. Lets take the, hopefully, upcoming event as an example. In the areas where the models show .3 to .4 everyone is assuming a 10 to one ratio and saying the model is predicting three to four inches of snow. Well it is and it isn't. It may snow 3 to 4 inches worth but that doesn't mean there will be anything like that on the ground. Taking the high end of .4. If that falls fairly evenly spread out over an 8 hours period, with the occasional lulls we usually get, even an inch of snow on the ground will be hard to come by. It is over 60º today. This is where ground temps, combined with a low precip rate severely limits accumulations. The ground would cover, especially grassy areas, and then reappear in a precip lull. This would repeat itself again and again without ever really moving into the realm of accumulating snow. There would be much wailing and gnashing of teeth. If we get that same .4 inches of precip as snow in a 2 hour period we would end up 2 or 3 inches on the ground and everyone would be happy. So, my fellow weenies and mets as well, it's up to you to predict accumulations. The models are just giving you total amounts of precip. I'm convinced we would be much happier in here if most folks would use the models as tools, instead of following them as gospel from 10 days out. Just 2 cents worth from the funny old man. I agree, actually. Soil temps and BL temps above freezing and early March solar radiation contributed to the spotty accumulations of the March 2, 2010 storm. The lighter precip rates didn't help, either. The places that got under heavy snow for an extended period of time (i.e. Sanford area) or got the heavy stuff at night did really well. In comparison, in the places where the precip rates were light, it hardly accumulated at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I agree with this. Soil temps (and I would think surface temps would coorelate) have a significant impact on accumulations IMO. GSP discussed it in pretty good detail in their afternoon disco today. Sun angle? Hill o' beans... Thanks for reading. I was beginning to wonder if anyone would. Maybe I'd better stick to humor. This looks like fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Thanks for reading. I was beginning to wonder if anyone would. Maybe I'd better stick to humor. This looks like fun. LOL, that's great....what would be better is to go along down the road with a huge OMG I'm crazy scared face, and see people's reaction... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It was fun while it lasted. Look...party hats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Don't stop thinking about tomorrow. Don't stop...it will soon be here. More cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yep, looks like this one's falling apart at record speed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Spring training and NASCAR starting up,season is changing.Won't be long before you have to pull the mower out. Not much winter weather this year but I've seen less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Spring training and NASCAR starting up,season is changing.Won't be long before you have to pull the mower out. Not much winter weather this year but I've seen less. I had a little sleet and a light snow shower for about 10 minutes. Haven't seen accumulating snow in two years. Fun stuff. Almost time for beer and liquor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I had a little sleet and a light snow shower for about 10 minutes. Haven't seen accumulating snow in two years. Fun stuff. Almost time for beer and liquor. I've seen snow twice this year with a dusting in one.Also a dusting of sleet with a coating on ice on top.May see a few flakes tomorrow so seeing winter weather 4 times isn't all that bad to me. Sure don't want to walk in it for a couple months like they do up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nam0806 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If all the negativity is proven wrong tomorrow and people do get snow, I am done here. Too much negativity, model hugging, discussion without scientific reasoning behind it, by some that is. Wait until it starts, then if it's not apparent something it'll happen, then we can call "cancel". Especially since it's within 18 hours, just wait now and see what happens instead of worrying about who gets what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 If all the negativity is proven wrong tomorrow and people do get snow, I am done here. Too much negativity, model hugging, discussion without scientific reasoning behind it, by some that is. Wait until it starts, then if it's not apparent something it'll happen, then we can call "cancel". Especially since it's within 18 hours, just wait now and see what happens instead of worrying about who gets what. I know you don't want to hear this but everyone is entitled to express their opinion. The fact some differ from yours and you can't handle it is your problem, not the forum's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Lol that is childish as hell. Ignore them then dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm just glad we didn't have to rely on the models for that asteroid today... the entire board would be nuts! We're all going to live... we're all going to die... some of us are going to live... wait maybe not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm just glad we didn't have to rely on the models for that asteroid today... the entire board would be nuts! We're all going to live... we're all going to die... some of us are going to live... wait maybe not 24 hours out Poster 1: It looks like it is just gong to miss us. Poster 2: CLIFF JUMPER!!! CLIFF JUMPER!!! The trajectory could still change. The MJO(mighty Jupiter orbit) is moving into its deflective stage. We won't really know until it happens. I don't trust ACCUPHYSICS. It's nowcaster time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 24 hours out Poster 1: It looks like it is just gong to miss us. Poster 2: CLIFF JUMPER!!! CLIFF JUMPER!!! The trajectory could still change. The MJO(mighty Jupiter orbit) is moving into its deflective stage. We won't really know until it happens. I don't trust ACCUPHYSICS. It's nowcaster time. Bro you are crazy lmao. It's true though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'd love to see the OBS thread for that... Wilkes got vaporized, Bricks on fire, jburns is getting light ash and I'm pissed cause I still have some sunlight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'd love to see the OBS thread for that... Wilkes got vaporized, Bricks on fire, jburns is getting light ash and I'm pissed cause I still have some sunlight! The color is irrelevant to me. Oh wait. You said ash. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'd love to see the OBS thread for that... Wilkes got vaporized, Bricks on fire, jburns is getting light ash and I'm pissed cause I still have some sunlight! Where is Wilkes? I haven't seen him post in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 So for the 0Zs, are we expecting less precip, warmer temps, more positive tilt, eastward trending, southerly winds, a huge Mid Atlantic hit, and another meteorite strike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Where is Wilkes? I haven't seen him post in days.He finally went to the promise land and got higher than a kite. Or maybe it was Cambodia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 He's in Russia working on his sky healing thesis. Where is Wilkes? I haven't seen him post in days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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