Toronto's Biggest snowstorms since 1855

[dmc76]

If you find errors let me know. I used EC's data base. I used TORONTO, ONTARIO and only used one event from PEARSON INT.

 

 

Number of 24"+ events 0

Number of 20"+ events 4

Number of 18"+ events 7

Number of 15"+ events 21

Number of 12"+ events 44

 

Longest gap between 20"+ events 72 years 1872-1944

 

Longest gap between 18"+ events 72 years 1872-1944

 

Longest gap between 15"+ events 33 years 1966-1999

 

Longest gap between 12"+ events 14 years 1910-1924

 

 

% chance of seeing a 12"+ snowstorm in a snowfall season 28%

                                   15"+                                                    13%

                                   18"+                                                    4%

                                   20"+                                                    2.5%

                                    24"+                                                  RARE

[Chicago WX]

You figured it out, nice. And job well done.

 

19th century Toronto observer a slant sticker?

[dmc76]

You figured it out, nice. And job well done.

 

19th century Toronto observer a slant sticker?

 

 

Next project investigate March of 1870.. My lord. That is SSC wet dream right there

[snowstormcanuck]

Holy ****, you went all the way back to 1855 to find all that. Plus the conversions. That's dedication. You have my props.

 

And yeah, Tim, it's either climate change or the guy was dropping the ruler in the snow horizontally.

[dmc76]

Holy ****, you went all the way back to 1855 to find all that. Plus the conversions. That's dedication. You have my props.

 

And yeah, Tim, it's either climate change or the guy was dropping the ruler in the snow horizontally.

 

 

Yea when I was scrolling through that month I was amazed. Imagine living through a month like that. I wonder if LES played a role... maybe? 

[Chicago WX]

Holy ****, you went all the way back to 1855 to find all that. Plus the conversions. That's dedication. You have my props.

 

And yeah, Tim, it's either climate change or the guy was dropping the ruler in the snow horizontally.

 

Old school measuring techniques.

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/gallery/image/41-24-of-snow/'>http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/gallery/image/41-24-of-snow/

[OntarioWX]

I noticed that in the March 1870 data, the total snowfall in cm was derived from just multiplying the total precip for the day by 10. In fact, it seems like the vast majority of snowfall measurements in the 19th century according to EC's site were calculated based solely on how much precipitation fell. So days where 6.4mm of precip fell, it was recorded as 6.4cm of snow. Kind of makes me suspicious of those actual numbers since it doesn't take into account if any fell as rain.

 

Maybe I'm just skeptical of seeing Toronto get 158.6cm of snow in March when its been years since they've had that in an entire winter.

[IWXwx]

I noticed that in the March 1870 data, the total snowfall in cm was derived from just multiplying the total precip for the day by 10. In fact, it seems like the vast majority of snowfall measurements in the 19th century according to EC's site were calculated based solely on how much precipitation fell. So days where 6.4mm of precip fell, it was recorded as 6.4cm of snow. Kind of makes me suspicious of those actual numbers since it doesn't take into account if any fell as rain.

 

Maybe I'm just skeptical of seeing Toronto get 158.6cm of snow in March when its been years since they've had that in an entire winter.

It also doesn't take into account 20:1 ratios with no rain.

[snowstormcanuck]

I noticed that in the March 1870 data, the total snowfall in cm was derived from just multiplying the total precip for the day by 10. In fact, it seems like the vast majority of snowfall measurements in the 19th century according to EC's site were calculated based solely on how much precipitation fell. So days where 6.4mm of precip fell, it was recorded as 6.4cm of snow. Kind of makes me suspicious of those actual numbers since it doesn't take into account if any fell as rain.

 

Maybe I'm just skeptical of seeing Toronto get 158.6cm of snow in March when its been years since they've had that in an entire winter.

 

If it was a computing error, I'd expect to see a more sudden change in Toronto's snowfall per annum. For example, if the practice you described was causing inflated totals and in say, 1940, they corrected it, we'd see a drastic decline in Toronto's snowfall starting that year. Instead, it's been a gradual decline since the late 19th century with that trend continuing to this date. So I think it's at least possible those nutso amounts are truth.

[dmc76]

If it was a computing error, I'd expect to see a more sudden change in Toronto's snowfall per annum. For example, if the practice you described was causing inflated totals and in say, 1940, they corrected it, we'd see a drastic decline in Toronto's snowfall starting that year. Instead, it's been a gradual decline since the late 19th century with that trend continuing to this date. So I think it's at least possible those nutso amounts are truth.

 

 

There were only 9 events of 12"+ and 2 of 15"+ from 1886-1939. 53 years. 

 

1959-2012 had 11 events of 12"+ and 2 of 15"+

[snowstormcanuck]

There were only 9 events of 12"+ and 2 of 15"+ from 1886-1939. 53 years. 

 

1959-2012 had 11 events of 12"+ and 2 of 15"+

 

Are you just pointing out an interesting stat or was this meant to refute my point? Because if you look at snowfall averages per decade, there's no doubt Toronto has been and continues to get less snowy.

[Jonger]

Are you just pointing out an interesting stat or was this meant to refute my point? Because if you look at snowfall averages per decade, there's no doubt Toronto has been and continues to get less snowy.

 

This corridor isn't very good for big storms.... I think my area has cracked 20 inches maybe once since records began. Chicago and Detroit both had one of their best snowy decades on record... It must have been bad luck for Toronto.

 

Almost everyone had their best years between 1970-1980... So yes, it declined from there. I guess we just need to pump more sulfates into the atmosphere to replicate that again.

[dmc76]

Are you just pointing out an interesting stat or was this meant to refute my point? Because if you look at snowfall averages per decade, there's no doubt Toronto has been and continues to get less snowy.

If there is a decline it began after 1886. Look how horrible those winters were between 1910-1924.

[Jonger]

If there is a decline it began after 1886. Look how horrible those winters were between 1910-1924.

 

The 1940's-1950's we BAD for lower Michigan, but slightly better than average for Toronto... Toronto did get the screw over the past decade, probably a case of bad luck considering upstream did well.

[snowstormcanuck]

If there is a decline it began after 1886. Look how horrible those winters were between 1910-1924.

 

At work so I can't confer with my spreadsheet that has decadal breakdowns but I'm almost certain they're better than what's going on now.  

[Jonger]

At work so I can't confer with my spreadsheet that has decadal breakdowns but I'm almost certain they're better than what's going on now.  

 

1999-2010 was down about 10 inches from the 100 year average in Toronto.

[dmc76]

At work so I can't confer with my spreadsheet that has decadal breakdowns but I'm almost certain they're better than what's going on now.

Actually they weren't too bad. Just had lack of bigger storms

[dmc76]

The 1940's-1950's we BAD for lower Michigan, but slightly better than average for Toronto... Toronto did get the screw over the past decade, probably a case of bad luck considering upstream did well.

I think there was one 6"+ snow event in the 40's that is horrid.

[Jonger]

I think there was one 6"+ snow event in the 40's that is horrid.

 

Its a 2 year sample... But I'm starting to think we might be entering one of those periods. The pacific is raging and that drought in the plains could spell doom for late starting winters. We had a TERRIBLE run of bad winters following the dust bowl era, why would this be any different?

 

Flint failed to crack 40 inches from 1931 to 1942!!! That is amazing.

 

This pertains to Toronto too... Its upstream.

[Toronto4]

Awesome dmc76. Thanks so much for this.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Its a 2 year sample... But I'm starting to think we might be entering one of those periods. The pacific is raging and that drought in the plains could spell doom for late starting winters. We had a TERRIBLE run of bad winters following the dust bowl era, why would this be any different?

 

Flint failed to crack 40 inches from 1931 to 1942!!! That is amazing.

 

This pertains to Toronto too... Its upstream.

Good post. I really do feel that we are in a similar period to the 1930s to 50s. These past two winters have been very similar to ones like 1949-50 and 1952-53. We've had a scorching summer along the lines of 1936 and 1955 in the plains and lakes.Even the snowy winter of 2007-2008 was somewhat along the lines of 1951-52 (November and December 1951 saw a lot of snow).

[wxnut]

I noticed that in the March 1870 data, the total snowfall in cm was derived from just multiplying the total precip for the day by 10. In fact, it seems like the vast majority of snowfall measurements in the 19th century according to EC's site were calculated based solely on how much precipitation fell. So days where 6.4mm of precip fell, it was recorded as 6.4cm of snow. Kind of makes me suspicious of those actual numbers since it doesn't take into account if any fell as rain.

 

Maybe I'm just skeptical of seeing Toronto get 158.6cm of snow in March when its been years since they've had that in an entire winter.

 

Prior to 1963, snowfall was always converted 10:1 to a precip amount (e.g 6.4 cm of snow = 6.4 mm of precip). They started taking SWE values in the winter of 1962-63. So prior to 1963, 6.4 cm of snow was actually 6.4 cm of snowfall, but not necessarily 6.4 mm melted precip. 

[michsnowfreak]

Cool data dmc! May I ask what peaked your interest in Torontos snowstorm climo?

 

No doubt torontos snowfall is decreasing....its interesting how we have sort of caught up (using the 20-year totals from Tim's 42-city snow data bonanza)

 

....................TOR....DTW

1880-1899....59.8"....45.4"

1900-1919....58.8"....42.7"

1920-1939....52.9"....39.9"

1940-1959....55.0"....32.1"

1960-1979....57.2"....39.1"

1980-1999....49.6"....41.5"

2000-2012....43.1"....45.2"

[michsnowfreak]

Its a 2 year sample... But I'm starting to think we might be entering one of those periods. The pacific is raging and that drought in the plains could spell doom for late starting winters. We had a TERRIBLE run of bad winters following the dust bowl era, why would this be any different?

 

Flint failed to crack 40 inches from 1931 to 1942!!! That is amazing.

 

This pertains to Toronto too... Its upstream.

This winter has gotten a bum rap from SE MI posters since it began....the problem is, once again, people are completely ignoring climo (talking specifically metro-Detroit btw, not Toronto, or Muskegan, etc). Unless something Chicago-esque happens the rest of the way, NO WAY does this winter fit in with the average 1930s-1950s winter here. I'm not saying this has been a good winter either. But put it this way, Detroit has seen almost 20 inches of snow so far in what is a few days past the HALFWAY point of the snow season. Basically, Detroit will probably see at minimum 30" of snow this winter, most likely more than that. So if it is indeed a close to average snow season (as I think it will be), you will be looking at an epic stretch of snowiness (2007-2011), one very subpar (but nowhere near futility) snow season (2011-12) and then an immediate rebound in 2012-13 (again, this is assuming the snow does not miraculously shut off the next 2.5 months). This is nowhere near what we saw in that era. What happens next winter and beyond is anyones guess. I repeat..IM NOT saying this is a good winter...Im saying it is NOT fitting the mold of that horrible era of winters, and we have no signs that we are entering such an era, at least not yet (and hopefully not ever in our lifetimes )

[wxnut]

Next project investigate March of 1870.. My lord. That is SSC wet dream right there

 

March 1876 was no slouch either. If you look at the 10 year period from 1867-1876, the average annual snowfall in Toronto was 245 cm, over double the current "normal" (115 cm)  Either that was a very stormy period, or they were a bit more generous on snowfall measurements back then. 

[dmc76]

Awesome dmc76. Thanks so much for this.

 

TY. I had time and did not mind doing it. 

 

Cool data dmc! May I ask what peaked your interest in Torontos snowstorm climo?

 

No doubt torontos snowfall is decreasing....its interesting how we have sort of caught up (using the 20-year totals from Tim's 42-city snow data bonanza)

 

....................TOR....DTW

1880-1899....59.8"....45.4"

1900-1919....58.8"....42.7"

1920-1939....52.9"....39.9"

1940-1959....55.0"....32.1"

1960-1979....57.2"....39.1"

1980-1999....49.6"....41.5"

2000-2012....43.1"....45.2"

Thanks. It's my "slow" season and was bored and we were talking about biggest snowstorms in TOR. So I figured I would do my part in the amwx historical data for something.