Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 the nam would maybe be better after the run (post 84)...but it's still pretty meh. Yeah, still trying to pull together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 man, I'm hoping we get more than an 1" on this one.. I'm hoping for a big week next week. I was thinking the same thing...I can deal with these 1-3 type of events when we're adding to snowpack, but since we're starting from bare ground, nothing less than a 4-8, 6-12 type will make up for this epic snowpack disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 the nam would maybe be better after the run (post 84)...but it's still pretty meh. Yeah not quite like those weenie SREF members that dig the vortmax down into NC/S VA. But still not a bad solution. Again, I think it would be easier to blow this up without that interfering shortwave ahead of it, but alas, beggers can't be choosers and we'll have to try and blow this up despite that s/w. It can be done, but we'll want to root for a stronger s/w diving in and a more meridional flow (better western ridge) as we get closer. But I would welcome an advisory event regardless if we can get that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 the nam would maybe be better after the run (post 84)...but it's still pretty meh. verbatim, I think we would be huffing subsidence as the secondary took over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Yeah not quite like those weenie SREF members that dig the vortmax down into NC/S VA. But still not a bad solution. Again, I think it would be easier to blow this up without that interfering shortwave ahead of it, but alas, beggers can't be choosers and we'll have to try and blow this up despite that s/w. It can be done, but we'll want to root for a stronger s/w diving in and a more meridional flow (better western ridge) as we get closer. But I would welcome an advisory event regardless if we can get that. yeah i hear ya. i definitely take some snow over nothing - but I guess i'm sort of to the point where i'm kind of looking for a widespread, higher impact deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 yeah i hear ya. i definitely take some snow over nothing - but I guess i'm sort of to the point where i'm kind of looking for a widespread, higher impact deal. 6th and 10th but I will take a 2-4 dealio in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 verbatim, I think we would be huffing subsidence as the secondary took over. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 R people really expecting a big storm out of this? Seems like a good clipper with some pockets of decent. Like the look and welcome the ground being white again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 huh? Just my thoughts Steve. I think the system develops too close to us as the primary dives out of Canada and transfers to the secondary just S of LI. Mid-levels don't get organized fats enough to bring the moisture in from the Atlantic. This would be a C/NNE system bomb. Basicall the snow we see on the NAM would WAA type as opposed to CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 R people really expecting a big storm out of this? Seems like a good clipper with some pockets of decent. Like the look and welcome the ground being white again. I certainly wouldn't expect a big storm out of this. If everything works out perfect, it can be a little surprise, but that's not what you should expect. There's a reason everything has to work out right to get this to be more than an advisory event for a widspread area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 R people really expecting a big storm out of this? Seems like a good clipper with some pockets of decent. Like the look and welcome the ground being white again. The potential is right there for a substantial event Steve. Expecting? No, Wishing? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Just my thoughts Steve. I think the system develops too close to us as the primary dives out of Canada and transfers to the secondary just S of LI. Mid-levels don't get organized fats enough to bring the moisture in from the Atlantic. This would be a C/NNE system bomb. Basicall the snow we see on the NAM would WAA type as opposed to CCB. I was trying to understand the secondary phrase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The potential is right there for a substantial event Steve. Expecting? No, Wishing? Yes. judging by all models it would need a ton of work to be substantial for us. Hope so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 R people really expecting a big storm out of this? Seems like a good clipper with some pockets of decent. Like the look and welcome the ground being white again. 2-4" is what I hope for.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 All the posts about the Nam being so bad, hmm. Seems pretty good last couple of storms, it blew the GFS away with QPF this last storm, GFS finally capitulated, unless you got 2-3 of rain? Those were overrunning events, the NAM's QPF can be better on overrunning type systems than the GFS, its one of the types of systems where the NAM sometimes does not overdo QPF. Still the NAM was too high on QPF on the northern disturbance on the 25th, it nailed the QPF for NC/VA/TN in the overrunning but was way too high with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Those were overrunning events, the NAM's QPF can be better on overrunning type systems than the GFS, its one of the types of systems where the NAM sometimes does not overdo QPF. Still the NAM was too high on QPF on the northern disturbance on the 25th, it nailed the QPF for NC/VA/TN in the overrunning but was way too high with the clipper. Last night was over running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Last night was over running? I was not thinking of that event, I was thinking of the 25th and the event 2 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I was not thinking of that event, I was thinking of the 25th and the event 2 days ago. I was talking about the last two. The NAM really cut back on QPF in all of NE very early while the GFS was hammering away at big totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 If only we could get that ridge a little sharper out west. Still..liking this run a lot for 2/3 To piggy back on what ORH said..if we can get the flow a bit more meridional with a sharper western ridge, boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Sort of like yours on my winds from yesterday Time to hype up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Time to hype up.For 3-6? Nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 fine probably being the understatement. Digging really deep...also starts to do the 2012/13 swing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 gfs making a move more toward the euro with less emphasis on a primary coming through the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS is a weenie dream. Liking the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Might be a good run here, Looks like it will be amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 This might be pretty good....judging at 72h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 gfs making a move more toward the euro with less emphasis on a primary coming through the lakes. Kind of the seasonal trend. If this one skips harmlessly (For the most part) out to sea....grrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 This might be pretty good....judging at 72h. yeah for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Lets lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.