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February 2-3rd 2013 Clipper/Redeveloper


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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euro actually has a little qpf after 00z on the cape tonight - that, to me, is it picking up on some of this stuff E of Bos strengthening and rotating south this evening. 

 

Yeah.  RGEM was probably first on this closely followed by the NAM and then the GFS.  Euro last to the party.

 

I'm just as interested in the area that's actually a bit inland developing towards Bob and venting NW...must be some winds in there that are NW above or below the NE flow developing at 8h.  Same goes for the band right on the coast.

 

Kind of hoping we have some enhancement right at that intersection later between the pure NE flow and whatever that is drawing precip NW.   Agreed precip east of Cape Ann is among the most interesting.

 

Overall this could dump 2-4 maybe more if it really came together.

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Yeah.  RGEM was probably first on this closely followed by the NAM and then the GFS.  Euro last to the party.

 

I'm just as interested in the area that's actually a bit inland developing towards Bob and venting NW...must be some winds in there that are NW above or below the NE flow developing at 8h.  Same goes for the band right on the coast.

 

Kind of hoping we have some enhancement right at that intersection later between the pure NE flow and whatever that is drawing precip NW.   Agreed precip east of Cape Ann is among the most interesting.

 

Overall this could dump 2-4 maybe more if it really came together.

yeah i think it's coming. i just don't know how strong it will be. one of these deals, unfortunately, where you really won't know until it's overhead. 

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yeah i think it's coming. i just don't know how strong it will be. one of these deals, unfortunately, where you really won't know until it's overhead. 

 

Awesome visible imagery and base velocity. 

 

So based on that first one moving west of Ptown now it probably comes down to my east, between you and I and that's the one that kind of opens the flood gates to whatever is going to develop (which is the 2nd spin behind it).

 

HRR DEV not as robust, 1-2" type of deal here maybe 2-3" towards you.  Primary is 1-3 type of deal.

 

I can see some snow falling over the water already even ahead of the radar, and even that first spin is starting to generate some decent returns as it drops down.

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from box:

 

 

MAJOR CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SET UP LATER TODAY.

ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS DO NOT REALLY INDICATE ANYTHING AT THIS

TIME...UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOWS POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE. EVEN LOOKING

AT THE SURFACE NH WINDS ARE DUE NORTH WHILE IN KBED AND KOWD...NW

WINDS. COASTAL FRONT SET WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ENHANCE AND THEREFOREMORE

SNOW THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR

POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

 

I didn't see this until now.  It's a real close call.  Could go either way.  If it gets going it'll probably be fairly impressive, but until I see it flaking my thought is it may miss to my east a bit.

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BOX on the bus, now it just needs to happen:  How much has fallen on the north shore?

 

 

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO EFFECT THE NORTH SHORE REGION
ALL THE WAY INTO MHT AND GROTON MASS. THESE SNOW SHOWERS ARE
REDUCING VSBYS DOWN TO 2 SM WHICH MAY CAUSE HAZARDS DRIVING
CONDITIONS. EASTERLY WINDS AT 925 & 850 MB WILL KEEP THE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW GOING DUE TO COLDER AIRMASS OVER THE WARM WATER. HAVE
UPDATED SNOW AMOUNTS OF UP TO TWO INCHES OVER THIS REGION. STILL
MONITORING FOR POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT FROM A WEAK COASTAL
FRONT...BUT SURFACE WINDS ARE STILL TO NORTHERLY ALONG THE COAST.
BELIEVE COASTAL FRONT MAY SET-UP LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO
STILL MONITOR.

 

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MAJOR CHANGES ARE IN STORE FOR TODAYS FORECAST. UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE REGION TODAY PUSHING AN OCEAN
LOW OUT PAST THE BENCHMARK. THIS LOW WILL UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS
TODAY...HOWEVER THE BEST LIFT/ENERGY/MOISTURE WILL MISS SNE AND
STAY OUT TO SEA. HOWEVER THIS LOW HAS CAUSED FOR GOOD NORTHERLY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS RIGHT NOW YET ALOFT AT 925 MB VWP SHOWERS
EASTERLY WINDS. BELIEVE THESE EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY. WITH A COLD AIRMASS OVER RELATIVELY WARM
OCEAN...OCEAN EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MORNING INTO MID-DAY. UNCERTAIN ON WHEN IT WILL SHUT OFF AS UPPER
LEVEL WINDS ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE SE.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A GOOD BAND OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW OVER
METRO BOSTON REACHING INTO METROWEST...DOWN TO NORWOOD AND EVEN UP
TO GLOUCESTER...PER SPOTTER REPORTS. THIS BAND WILL REDUCE VSBYS
AND WILL DROP NO MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW. OCEAN EFFECT SNOWS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CAPE AND ISLANDS...ALTHOUGH NOT AS
PRONOUNCED. BELIEVE A DUSTING UP TO AN INCH FOR THE DAY...MORE
LATER THIS EVENING.

MAJOR CONCERN IS THE POSSIBLE COASTAL FRONT SET UP LATER TODAY.
ALTHOUGH SURFACE WINDS DO NOT REALLY INDICATE ANYTHING AT THIS
TIME...UPPER LEVEL WINDS SHOWS POSSIBLE CONVERGENCE. EVEN LOOKING
AT THE SURFACE NH WINDS ARE DUE NORTH WHILE IN KBED AND KOWD...NW
WINDS. COASTAL FRONT SET WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ENHANCE AND THEREFORE
MORESNOW THEN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT.

ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...MAY SEE A DUSTING BUT BELIEVE THE BEST
REGION TO WATCH IS ACROSS THE EAST COAST OCEAN EFFECT SNOW MAKER.
SEEMS THAT THE NAM MODEL HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT CONDITIONS
PER QPF AND POPS. TRENDED TEMPS TO MORE OF THE HIRES MODELS. STAY
TUNED FOR THE LATEST UP DATES ON THIS CURRENT SYSTEM.


 

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radar expanding nw of boston in response to flow moving inland with precip pulse off cape ann. pretty impressive now in andover.

I didn't see this until now.  It's a real close call.  Could go either way.  If it gets going it'll probably be fairly impressive, but until I see it flaking my thought is it may miss to my east a bit.

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radar expanding nw of boston in response to flow moving inland with precip pulse off cape ann. pretty impressive now in andover.

That may actually be the surprise jackpot area. Right now we're having a hard time getting the returns south down along the coast.

We might be waiting til late afternoon / evening if the short -term models are right

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funny how good nam was in catching this @ 12z. radar simulation clearly developed what is now happening. pretty nice coup for the meso model in the short term forecast.


That may actually be the surprise jackpot area.  Right now we're having a hard time getting the returns south down along the coast.

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Somebody from BOS NW to the MA/NH line must be passing 1" out of this - any reports from folks up there?

 

I hate waiting in these situations because once the band starts moving it doesn't stop and I'm not sure I'll be able to cash in.  I think you're fine, liking my prospects less.  Expected more SW movement by now, it's having a hard time getting passed Plymouth Harbor.

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Somebody from BOS NW to the MA/NH line must be passing 1" out of this - any reports from folks up there?

I hate waiting in these situations because once the band starts moving it doesn't stop and I'm not sure I'll be able to cash in. I think you're fine, liking my prospects less. Expected more SW movement by now, it's having a hard time getting passed Plymouth Harbor.

I think it's the slowly developing stuff up NE toward PVC that's ours. Not the stuff trying to come S from the south shore. But I know what you mean about the movement once it's going.

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I think it's the slowly developing stuff up NE toward PVC that's ours. Not the stuff trying to come S from the south shore. But I know what you mean about the movement once it's going.

 

I think you'll be fine, I may get scraped...what else is new.  Hopefully another dusting, I think I'm going to miss most of it.

 

Funny situation..precip expanding into NH and Maine steadily.

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