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February 2-3rd 2013 Clipper/Redeveloper

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

BTW the 12km version of the above mentioned meso (compared with the 4km) version really plasters cape cod. i mean out by the elbow gets hit hard (.75+) qpf

 

USCAPEWX may have ran that out of his house

 

easiest to see when you click the 12km version and go to 24 hr precip.

 

shows .25+ from E plymouth country and .5 + from barnstable to .75+ from w. brewster to 1.0 chh and e 3/4 of nantucket

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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Well i posted the maps from Plymouth center but apparently he lives 14 miles south of there, long town. RU skiing at all or stranded  without a vehicle again?

 

largest municipality in Massachusetts in terms of area....one of the few heavily populated areas with this many dirt roads left around.    Tough on the civil services as it can be 30+ minutes from one side of the town to the other even with partial highway usage.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

panel 15 of the 9z sref's gives ri about 1.25 to 1.75 qpf somehow.

 

sfref mean still .25 plus for 2/3 of cape. and there's actually 7-8 members giving general bos area .25+ and 4/5 members givin kbos .50 + 

 

i'm basically trying to see if the 12km btv wrf 6z run is on its own with crushing the outer half of cape w .5 to 1.0 qpf

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
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I embrace the weenie within me.  If trends are right, this trough is more amplified then currently modeled as, hope the next runs show this more.

well i must say that i don't believe u necessarily but there are several amp'd up sref members 9z  and the 6z 12km btv wrf meso is clocking you so there is a chance

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USCAPEWEATHERAF

USCAPEWEATHERAF

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well i must say that i don't believe u necessarily but there are several amp'd up sref members 9z  and the 6z 12km btv wrf meso is clocking you so there is a chance

Perhaps they are picking up on the southern shortwave being over OK instead of MO/AR, big difference when it comes to sudilities of the weather.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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I think I have at last figured it all out - it makes perfect sense to me. It is utterly clear!

What drives the American Forums crew: Whether there is a snow storm or a schit storm, one way or the other, there is going to be a storm on the Forum.

...The last 24 hours...scratch that, the last 40 days of winter, has been one giant, historic, protracted schit storm. Accumulations range from 5 to 10 feet deep of bull****, and the proverbial sun has never shown for 40 days and 40 nights during that stretch. Those that can't admit to missing out on a snow fix for their crazy obsession, invent pseudo scientific reasoning to delude themselves into thinking things are about to be better. Mets roll their eyes, and then pick on the rabble because they too are non-plussed and needing to vent. Neither reconciles the other very well and the tension pulses up until there are these "controlled" collective meltdowns - they are just gusts of wind and thunderclaps amid the greatest schit storm of all time.

Annnyway, I find it bemusing really that last year was quite understandably missing of winter, because the pattern at virtually all times appeared clad for no chances. This time ...eh, lots of governing indicators are a go, yet the futility is - per date - in a positive bias in its own rite. May not be as futile as last year, granted - but the affectation is nearly the same for having so many missed chances, achieving a less statistically favored out come. It doesn't seem possible to pass 20 impulses in a row (as an example) and miss every one, but ... there we go.

The MJO is impressively strong in the western Hemisphere now, strengthening in phase 8, ...so weak a presentation on the pattern, one is left to wonder if what cold there is over eastern N/A is happening for other reasons altogether (and I strongly suggest cycles in the EPO have been responsible for just about every cold incursion we've seen, which may not MJO related).

Wow.

The AO is modestly positive, and "might" fall to neutral, but thereafter the ensemble members are remaining positive - albeit with a good bit of spread. Meanwhile, a powerful stratospheric warm and downward propagation has been noted over the past 25 days, and there is ZIPPO AO response.

Wow part II.

I was just reading NCEP MJO weekly PDF from last Tuesday, and they are saying/timing a western trough/eastern ridge for the 2nd half of February ... particularly the last week of the month. Bye bye sorted winter, and probably for the best. This thing can't end fast enough in my book. I am so glad I have been pre-occupied with other pursuits because if I were investing much personal energy and devotion to winter production, I ... I don't have any description that does your abject horror any justice. You are just in hell - period.

The reason for the bad winter is pretty clear. I discussed this at length, yesterday, but timing in threads made likely that it missed a lot of eyes. The problem with the pattern this year has been persistent, really to the point of unrelenting, flow velocity that is too high. I think a fascinating study would be to do a time-integrated, accumulated wind energy based purely on the 500mb flow velocities over North America. Kind of like the same analysis they do for hurricane storm energy. I bet outcome would total something near the top of what Terran physics can muster. It seems every day over Florida the wind velocity at 500mb has been between 45 and 90 kts, EVERY DAY. This system over the next 24 hours (which imho, if it snows ...anywhere, more than a dusting, it's not because of the storm but more likely because we happen to be passing through any trough axis at all...), is being foisted out to sea because ... well, it's too complex to summarize for eyes that are too beleaguered to care at this point.

I'll just say that the N stream is trying to temporarily amplify over the top of a suppressed, but still present, SE ridge, and the resulting flow is ...duh duh dunnnn, too fast, so what S/W dynamics are there, get zipped out to sea. This thing isn't "really" a negative tilted system in the sense of what that means for cyclogenesis on the coast, in common parlance. It merely looks that way on the surface. What is really taking place here, is that the wind "punch" associated with the temporary N stream flexing is carving E over the Atlantic, leaving the MA in a West-East zonal flow. That actual negative tilt doesn't happen until the wave reaches an eastward terminus, and then turns N - THAT excites the cyclone, but of course way too far east to matter to anything other than a pod of Grey Whales and some Harbor Masters up in NS.

One other aspect of this winter that has been frustrating ( I am sure ) is this penchants for the Global models to see these tasty looking scenarios as near as 100 hour or so, only to see them go poof. One thing I have noticed these models doing that has been an error ...pretty much the whole time over the last month and a half, is that they keep trying to relax the flow in the late mid ranges, where of course they have these storms. But then, said 144 hour range cuts in half, and the previous slower flow is accessed stronger, embedded system goes poof. Interesting.

So why is the flow so fast. Well, on the immediate surface it is easy to see we have had a pretty strong ...scary deep at times, sub-polar vortex feature wobbling around between 100W and 80W, but about 55 to 60N. Kind of doing a large cyclonic rotation around a some pivot point amid that general domain. This feature has been pretty locked there most of the time over the first 2/3rds of this winter. While that has been taking place ....the relay from the Pacific into western North America has been "splity" in nature. That is because the ridge is too far west, at times, actually situated slight west of the West Coast. In the means, that teleconnects (statistically supports...) a weakness to at times, actual trough in the deep SW. This may not be outright observable at any given time during the Dailies, but the tendency is/has been there all along, and that subtends a ridge anomaly to some degree downstream over the Gulf and adjacent areas.

So what are we left with in the means. (We have a big whirling negative anomaly over Canada + a ridge over the deep SE) = go f your self if you want snow storms.

Some Met or group of Mets made a comment that this year would be nothing like last year, back in October. Yeah, jokes on snow geese. They were right!

Ah, well, things don't have to be ideal to get a decent winter storm, either. So yeah, true, there has been some bad luck in there too, no doubt. It's just hard to identify where that was during all this time of raging wind velocities at mid levels. I think I would trade about 1/3rd of the SPV's strength for a 15 degree longitude eastward adjustment to the western ridge persistence, and you'd be golden. Because the SE heights would relax, the flow would tend to unify over the High Plains, and we'd find less inhibition for carving waves into storm forming entities.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I think I have at last figured it all out - it makes perfect sense to me.  It is utterly clear!

 

What drives the American Forums crew:   Whether there is a snow storm or a schit storm, one way or the other, there is going to be a storm on the Forum.  

 

...The last 24 hours...scratch that, the last 40 days of winter, has been one giant, historic, protracted schit storm.  Accumulations range from 5 to 10 feet deep of bull****, and the proverbial sun has never shown for 40 days and 40 nights during that stretch.   Those that can't admit to missing out on a snow fix for their crazy obsession, invent pseudo scientific reasoning to delude themselves into thinking things are about to be better.   Mets roll their eyes, and then pick on the rabble because they too are non-plussed and needing to vent.   Neither reconciles the other very well and the tension pulses up until there are these "controlled" collective meltdowns - they are just gusts of wind and thunderclaps amid the greatest schit storm of all time.   

 

Annnyway, I find it bemusing really that last year was quite understandably missing of winter, because the pattern at virtually all times appeared clad for no chances.  This time ...eh, lots of governing indicators are a go, yet the futility is - per date - in a positive bias in its own rite.  May not be as futile as last year, granted - but the affectation is nearly the same for having so many missed chances, achieving a less statistically favored out come.   It doesn't seem possible to pass 20 impulses in a row (as an example) and miss every one, but ... there we go. 

 

The MJO is impressively strong in the western Hemisphere now, strengthening in phase 8, ...so weak a presentation on the pattern, one is left to wonder if what cold there is over eastern N/A is happening for other reasons altogether (and I strongly suggest cycles in the EPO have been responsible for just about every cold incursion we've seen, which may not MJO related).  

 

Wow.  

 

The AO is modestly positive, and "might" fall to neutral, but thereafter the ensemble members are remaining positive - albeit with a good bit of spread.   Meanwhile, a powerful stratospheric warm and downward propagation has been noted over the past 25 days, and there is ZIPPO AO response.  

 

Wow part II.    

 

I was just reading NCEP MJO weekly PDF from last Tuesday, and they are saying/timing a western trough/eastern ridge for the 2nd half of February ... particularly the last week of the month.   Bye bye sorted winter, and probably for the best.  This thing can't end fast enough in my book.  I am so glad I have been pre-occupied with other pursuits because if I were investing much personal energy and devotion to winter production, I ... I don't have any description that does your abject horror any justice.  You are just in hell - period.   

 

The reason for the bad winter is pretty clear.  I discussed this at length, yesterday, but timing in threads made likely that it missed a lot of eyes.  The problem with the pattern this year has been persistent, really to the point of unrelenting, flow velocity that is too high.   I think a fascinating study would be to do a time-integrated, accumulated wind energy based purely on the 500mb flow velocities over North America.  Kind of like the same analysis they do for hurricane storm energy.   I bet outcome would total something near the top of what Terran physics can muster.   It seems every day over Florida the wind velocity at 500mb has been between 45 and 90 kts, EVERY DAY.     This system over the next 24 hours (which imho, if it snows ...anywhere, more than a dusting, it's not because of the storm but more likely because we happen to be passing through any trough axis at all...), is being foisted out to sea because ...   well, it's too complex to summarize for eyes that are too beleaguered to care at this point.

 

I'll just say that the N stream is trying to temporarily amplify over the top of a suppressed, but still present, SE ridge, and the resulting flow is ...duh duh dunnnn, too fast, so what S/W dynamics are there, get zipped out to sea.  This thing is "really" a negative tilted system in the sense of what that means for cyclogenesis on the coast, in common parlance.  It merely looks that way on the surface.  What is really taking place here, is that the wind "punch" associated with the temporary N stream flexing is carving E over the Atlantic, leaving the MA in a West-East zonal flow.   That actual negative tilt doesn't happen until the wave reaches an eastward terminus, and then turns N - THAT excites the cyclone, but of course way too far east to matter to anything other than a pod of Grey Whales and some Harbor Masters up in NS.  

 

One other aspect of this winter that has been frustrating ( I am sure ) is this penchants for the Global models to see these tasty looking scenarios as near as 100 hour or so, only to see them go poof.  One thing I have noticed these models doing that has been an error ...pretty much the whole time over the last month and a half, is that they keep trying to relax the flow in the late mid ranges, where of course they have these storms.  But then, said 144 hour range cuts in half, and the previous slower flow is accessed stronger, embedded system goes poof.   Interesting.   

 

So why is the flow so fast.  Well, on the immediate surface it is easy to see we have had a pretty strong ...scary deep at times, sub-polar vortex feature wobbling around between 100W and 80W, but about 55 to 60N.  Kind of doing a large cyclonic rotation around a some pivot point amid that general domain. This feature has been pretty locked there most of the time over the first 2/3rds of this winter.   While that has been taking place ....the relay from the Pacific into western North America has been "splity" in nature.  That is because the ridge is too far west, at times, actually situated slight west of the West Coast.  In the means, that teleconnects (statistically supports...) a weakness to at times, actual trough in the deep SW.  This may not be outright observable at any given time during the Dailies, but the tendency is/has been there all along, and that subtends a ridge anomaly to some degree downstream over the Gulf and adjacent areas.  

 

So what are we left with in the means.  (We have a big whirling negative anomaly over Canada + a ridge over the deep SE) = go f your self if you want snow storms.

 

Some Met or group of Mets made a comment that this year would be nothing like last year, back in October.   Yeah, jokes on snow geese.  They were right!    

 

Ah, well, things don't have to be ideal to get a decent winter storms.  So yeah, true, there has been some bad luck in there too, no doubt. It's just hard to identify where that was during all this time of ranging wind velocities at mid levels.   I think I would trade about 1/3rd of the SPV's strength for a 15 degree longitude eastward adjustment to the western ridge persistence, and you'd be golden.   Because the SE heights would relax, the flow would tend to unify over the High Plains, and we'd find less inhibition for carving waves into storm forming entities.   

 

A+

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Allsnow

Allsnow

Posted
Posted

I think I have at last figured it all out - it makes perfect sense to me. It is utterly clear!

What drives the American Forums crew: Whether there is a snow storm or a schit storm, one way or the other, there is going to be a storm on the Forum.

...The last 24 hours...scratch that, the last 40 days of winter, has been one giant, historic, protracted schit storm. Accumulations range from 5 to 10 feet deep of bull****, and the proverbial sun has never shown for 40 days and 40 nights during that stretch. Those that can't admit to missing out on a snow fix for their crazy obsession, invent pseudo scientific reasoning to delude themselves into thinking things are about to be better. Mets roll their eyes, and then pick on the rabble because they too are non-plussed and needing to vent. Neither reconciles the other very well and the tension pulses up until there are these "controlled" collective meltdowns - they are just gusts of wind and thunderclaps amid the greatest schit storm of all time.

Annnyway, I find it bemusing really that last year was quite understandably missing of winter, because the pattern at virtually all times appeared clad for no chances. This time ...eh, lots of governing indicators are a go, yet the futility is - per date - in a positive bias in its own rite. May not be as futile as last year, granted - but the affectation is nearly the same for having so many missed chances, achieving a less statistically favored out come. It doesn't seem possible to pass 20 impulses in a row (as an example) and miss every one, but ... there we go.

The MJO is impressively strong in the western Hemisphere now, strengthening in phase 8, ...so weak a presentation on the pattern, one is left to wonder if what cold there is over eastern N/A is happening for other reasons altogether (and I strongly suggest cycles in the EPO have been responsible for just about every cold incursion we've seen, which may not MJO related).

Wow.

The AO is modestly positive, and "might" fall to neutral, but thereafter the ensemble members are remaining positive - albeit with a good bit of spread. Meanwhile, a powerful stratospheric warm and downward propagation has been noted over the past 25 days, and there is ZIPPO AO response.

Wow part II.

I was just reading NCEP MJO weekly PDF from last Tuesday, and they are saying/timing a western trough/eastern ridge for the 2nd half of February ... particularly the last week of the month. Bye bye sorted winter, and probably for the best. This thing can't end fast enough in my book. I am so glad I have been pre-occupied with other pursuits because if I were investing much personal energy and devotion to winter production, I ... I don't have any description that does your abject horror any justice. You are just in hell - period.

The reason for the bad winter is pretty clear. I discussed this at length, yesterday, but timing in threads made likely that it missed a lot of eyes. The problem with the pattern this year has been persistent, really to the point of unrelenting, flow velocity that is too high. I think a fascinating study would be to do a time-integrated, accumulated wind energy based purely on the 500mb flow velocities over North America. Kind of like the same analysis they do for hurricane storm energy. I bet outcome would total something near the top of what Terran physics can muster. It seems every day over Florida the wind velocity at 500mb has been between 45 and 90 kts, EVERY DAY. This system over the next 24 hours (which imho, if it snows ...anywhere, more than a dusting, it's not because of the storm but more likely because we happen to be passing through any trough axis at all...), is being foisted out to sea because ... well, it's too complex to summarize for eyes that are too beleaguered to care at this point.

I'll just say that the N stream is trying to temporarily amplify over the top of a suppressed, but still present, SE ridge, and the resulting flow is ...duh duh dunnnn, too fast, so what S/W dynamics are there, get zipped out to sea. This thing is "really" a negative tilted system in the sense of what that means for cyclogenesis on the coast, in common parlance. It merely looks that way on the surface. What is really taking place here, is that the wind "punch" associated with the temporary N stream flexing is carving E over the Atlantic, leaving the MA in a West-East zonal flow. That actual negative tilt doesn't happen until the wave reaches an eastward terminus, and then turns N - THAT excites the cyclone, but of course way too far east to matter to anything other than a pod of Grey Whales and some Harbor Masters up in NS.

One other aspect of this winter that has been frustrating ( I am sure ) is this penchants for the Global models to see these tasty looking scenarios as near as 100 hour or so, only to see them go poof. One thing I have noticed these models doing that has been an error ...pretty much the whole time over the last month and a half, is that they keep trying to relax the flow in the late mid ranges, where of course they have these storms. But then, said 144 hour range cuts in half, and the previous slower flow is accessed stronger, embedded system goes poof. Interesting.

So why is the flow so fast. Well, on the immediate surface it is easy to see we have had a pretty strong ...scary deep at times, sub-polar vortex feature wobbling around between 100W and 80W, but about 55 to 60N. Kind of doing a large cyclonic rotation around a some pivot point amid that general domain. This feature has been pretty locked there most of the time over the first 2/3rds of this winter. While that has been taking place ....the relay from the Pacific into western North America has been "splity" in nature. That is because the ridge is too far west, at times, actually situated slight west of the West Coast. In the means, that teleconnects (statistically supports...) a weakness to at times, actual trough in the deep SW. This may not be outright observable at any given time during the Dailies, but the tendency is/has been there all along, and that subtends a ridge anomaly to some degree downstream over the Gulf and adjacent areas.

So what are we left with in the means. (We have a big whirling negative anomaly over Canada + a ridge over the deep SE) = go f your self if you want snow storms.

Some Met or group of Mets made a comment that this year would be nothing like last year, back in October. Yeah, jokes on snow geese. They were right!

Ah, well, things don't have to be ideal to get a decent winter storms. So yeah, true, there has been some bad luck in there too, no doubt. It's just hard to identify where that was during all this time of ranging wind velocities at mid levels. I think I would trade about 1/3rd of the SPV's strength for a 15 degree longitude eastward adjustment to the western ridge persistence, and you'd be golden. Because the SE heights would relax, the flow would tend to unify over the High Plains, and we'd find less inhibition for carving waves into storm forming entities.

Bravo bravo. We never got into a good pattern. Same results as last year down here. Only diff we had one cold week. Winter ends in one week. Thank god

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