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February 2-3rd 2013 Clipper/Redeveloper


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Pressure matters with the comma head.  To the northwest of greatest pressure falls is where the comma head explodes, Cape Cod, MA and Downeast ME are in that zone.  GFS says 3-6"

 

Sure sea level pressure "matters" with anything storm related but its not the only determining value. In this case just because a surface low is starting to strengthen does not mean the mid and upper level dynamics that create a comma head are in place yet. A comma head does not form in 2 dimensions, your argument would yield pure convergence at the surface and a distinct core of rising motion. The real world is not that easy hence why you do see comma heads in some situations.

 

You are not in "that zone" no matter how hard you try to wish it so. NWP is good enough at this point, and the players are on the field observationally that we can tell you that with quite a bit of confidence. Give it up, take a roadtrip to Eastport, ME if you want this one to be halfway interesting.

 

I recommend the 1st volume of the Kocin/Uccellini winter storm books for a very good explaination of NE Coastal Storms specifically and cold season mid latitude dynamics in general.

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I have read Paul Kocin/Uccellini volume 1 book, it is very interesting, but I have found throughout my own experience that a great upper level support system, intense surface cyclogenesis, a great jet core of divergence aloft, and 700mb low tracks all fit into where the comma head develops.  I have found that it follows the pressure fall/rise couplet in most instances.  Do I hope that a miracle happens with this system, yes of course I hope, but do I know its not happening, no I don't, because even with our fancy computer models, mother nature is still in charge, so I stay vigilant until the threat is gone and in this case the threat is still very real, it has yet to develop so until then I am keeping an open mind.

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