CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I guess. SSTs are at their coldest by now. They drop right into March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 GFS and NAM handlings are quite different. NAM is way off the coast while the GFS is much closer tucked in, one of them are quite off, who will cave in first? GFS has a much more dynamic upper level pattern with a closed H5 low over the Maritimes while the NAM is much broader. RAP will side with the GFS in its handling, lets see the 12z GFS first before going with lesser accumulations, it would have been nice to see the NAM cave in to the GFS, but I think its best to have the GFS on your side rather then fighting against the GFS, especially with all of its members agreeing with the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I guess. SSTs are at their coldest by now. yeah it's essentially a "non-issue" feb/mar per climo. obviously it can still rain with a coastal but it's nowhere near the problem it is nov/dec/jan. of course, this year and last the water has been warmer so...same rules maybe don't apply...but you know what i mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 That new Gulf Stream eddy will try to make a run for it when that surface low rides on by, perhaps aiding in convective processes as the western comma head overrides it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Well we all know what this winter is building towards. Pretty clear that the ghosts of 4/1/97 will be making an appearance. I am very encouraged by the trends of LR modeling for mid month on though. Some energy mets are probably having sleepless nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I'm going with pattern recognition. 8-14 for Kevin. Occasional flurries for the rest of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I am very encouraged by the trends of LR modeling for mid month on though. Some energy mets are probably having sleepless nights. I agree with you. We can have some fun and maybe our snakebit streak ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I'm going with pattern recognition. 8-14 for Kevin. Occasional flurries for the rest of us. don't look at any models!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 This will probably bring a difference of 1" vs 6" in about 20 miles. That's how razor sharp the comma head will be.Im not including snow inland from coastal . Ours cones from initial vort and then snow from second wave / clipper Sunday pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Bye bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Dicks!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Im not including snow inland from coastal . Ours cones from initial vort and then snow from second wave / clipper Sunday pm. you are arguing with yourself. like every storm. no one said you are getting no snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Dicks!!!! wow. overboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Dicks!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 GFS caved in...that looks much more reasonable. the 6z made me nervous. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 AWT. Cya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Could it be that the GFS sees a weaker shortwave over ME at hour 15 then the NAM and therefore allows the jet stream to buckle quicker then the NAM shows? 12z GFS is further east through hour 30 then 6z run, probably was a 6z off run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Melt coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Not buying the further east solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 We've been tracking a system incessantly for 4 days that will likely give no one >1 inch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Not buying the further east solutions. buy them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 AWT. Cya. Warning criteria snows most of SNE. AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Not buying the further east solutions. LOL give it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Not buying the further east solutions. You post a lot lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I agree with you. We can have some fun and maybe our snakebit streak ends. I was thinking about something this morning after discovering yet another tree down in the back yard. I have lived up here for 13 years now. I lost 3 trees in 10 years, 16 in 2 all falling towards the north northeast. The 2 years were meh snow years ( 2012 so far at climo but in a meh way). We have had tremendous south to southeast wind storms but nary a true noreaster. We need a stemwinder to uncork the bottle and switch up what has been predominately a S to SE high wind pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Warning criteria snows most of SNE. AWT. People should be concerned about Monday morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 GFS shows a perfect uncompleted comma head developing around the 994mb low, I think this is incorrect, a 994mb low has a better comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 I wouldn't be worried about the Feb 5th storm, its a weak system that won't produce much. The NAM has a third shortwave/clipper moving through the Great Lakes in the 84 hour timeframe, I would be more worried about that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 GFS shows a perfect uncompleted comma head developing around the 994mb low, I think this is incorrect, a 994mb low has a better comma head. What? It matters not what the pressure is. Weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 GFS shows a perfect uncompleted comma head developing around the 994mb low, I think this is incorrect, a 994mb low has a better comma head. We're pulling for ya but not putting any hard earned cash down.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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