codfishsnowman Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 i like the look of the radar and the stuff doesn't seem to moving all that fast, seems like there is some what of a connection from gomxco i have seen far worse set ups...i think there is something to watch here for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Euro was a very drawn out .25" at CHH. The GFS is certainly on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Throw out the models and sing Kumbaya. If we all think positive thoughts we can pull this NW...or so I heard. Yep, this is the word of the CTBlizz church of God. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Still relying on models instead of going with recognition and instincts. I promise not to post even one AWT tomorrow, even though many will be warranted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Phil has 2-4 for his customers, sounds right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Still relying on models instead of going with recognition and instincts. I promise not to post even one AWT tomorrow, even though many will be warranted Well you realize 1-3 includes 1" right? I would be surprised if you had 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 I think NAM is off with its surface features compared to trough positioning with the lead and secondary shortwave impulses. Phase happens sooner and much closer to the coastline. Low gets tugged closer to the coast underneath troughing rather then out in the convection. Convective feedback issues rule the romp today. Cape Cod, MA manages 1-2" of snow on the NAM as comma head skirts off the coast and low bombs out too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Phil has 2-4 for his customers, sounds right just saw the BOX map...very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 I would side with the NWS for now with 2-4" but with a chance for higher amounts. I say this in light of the latest NAM. If the GFS ensemble members weren't in fairly decent agreement with its operational run then I would say GFS is on its own and can be discontinued, but since the GFS and its individual members agree on more QPF for the area then I say there is a lot more credence to the GFS. EURO was a lot closer to the coastline with the surface low as well, just not as deep as the GFS, NAM went very deep very fast with the surface low, but too far east. Longitude over latitude debate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 just saw the BOX map...very similar. I could roll with that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Well you realize 1-3 includes 1" right? I would be surprised if you had 3.Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Biggest snowstorm this year brought 5", can this storm out do that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Biggest snowstorm this year brought 5", can this storm out do that one. What's your location again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 This will probably bring a difference of 1" vs 6" in about 20 miles. That's how razor sharp the comma head will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 can already see the OES coming around on the SW flow. pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 This will probably bring a difference of 1" vs 6" in about 20 miles. That's how razor sharp the comma head will be. I'd feel good on the outer Cape. Hopefully they can cash in again before climo becomes more hostile for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 This will probably bring a difference of 1" vs 6" in about 20 miles. That's how razor sharp the comma head will be. yeah i agree. unfortunately i think the fish are in the best position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 I'd feel good on the outer Cape. Hopefully they can cash in again before climo becomes more hostile for them. you mean next december? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 RAP has cyclogenesis beginning by hour 18 off the NC coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 What's your location again? Harwich, MA (Outer Cape Cod, MA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 yeah i agree. unfortunately i think the fish are in the best position. Yeah I know. Maybe camp out with the seals on that island off of Chatham..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 you mean next december? 2-4" = cash in this winter. Outside chance at 6" for Chatham? I'd take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 13z RAP that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 2-4" = cash in this winter. Outside chance at 6" for Chatham? I'd take it. no i mean climo. until like...april...that's not a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 2, 2013 Author Share Posted February 2, 2013 Yeah I know. Maybe camp out with the seals on that island off of Chatham..lol. On monomoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 Yeah I know. Maybe camp out with the seals on that island off of Chatham..lol. i can be like Pete...i'll hunt for my food. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 no i mean climo. until like...april...that's not a problem. I guess. SSTs are at their coldest by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2013 Share Posted February 2, 2013 i can be like Pete...i'll hunt for my food. Well we all know what this winter is building towards. Pretty clear that the ghosts of 4/1/97 will be making an appearance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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