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February 2-3rd 2013 Clipper/Redeveloper

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

General 1-3 for everyone I think somebody tickles 5" lots of good things going on Sunday, decent flow off the atlantic, decent primary, and who knows what the coastal does and some convergence.

 

Somebody will get the shaft, somebody the balls just the way it is.........beats partly sunny and 29 with bare ground.

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SnowGoose69

SnowGoose69

Posted
Posted

NAM has been very consistent (several runs now) with a band of possibly moderate snow sitting over NYC and Long Island and brushing southern CT. Maybe this is why they are going with 2" for most.  Ratios could be good, we got .25" of snow last weekend and there was nothing on radar, so just a little bit can give an inch or two.. we will see. if models continue to back off.. then I wont expect anything more than another dusting..

This is about as good a setup for an inverted trof for NYC as you're ever gonna see because the 500 vort setup is good from way south over VA/NC on up the coast and usually they don't really become conducive til right near NYC or east but still I cannot recall one good setup that has hit NYC minus the event that hit LI in 1988, I'd still feel best in this storm in SE MA overall though there is probably going to be an inverted trof forming somewhere between say Belmar NJ and Groton CT, just impossible to say where or how strong.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

I think you've misunderstood. In one post it's "HM sucks" and in another it's "I wasn't taking a shot at HM." I was making fun of your nonsense and tying that into how you improperly judge a wx situation on your skewed perception of long range forecasting. I suppose it was a stretch for a typed response. Maybe it would have worked better in person.

 

You are forgetting a better one a week or two ago when I called you a boner. I think that was funnier than making fun of you for using a water vapor loop to suggest the NWP was wrong. That's always a classic when someone thinks they can watch a wv loop and visualize the future better than a model.

I have no problem taking hits. Maybe you haven't noticed but I've been on these forums for years and every winter I take crap from posters like you. I have pretty thick skin and I think it is hilarious that you think I can't take your hits. I have had far worse things said about me on this forum and past forums.

 

LOL at the talk of "looming change" and your ridiculous perception of long range forecasting verification.

 

See my perception of reality must be different than yours.

 

 "The beginning of Feb has been looking, for a while, to be very snowy for much of the area. It is quite possible that everything happens faster and I'm definitely guilty of being too slow or fast with transitions. But, I think the ECMWF day 9-10+ is a little too fast and it likely waits until Feb. Of course, who says we can't have two! lol"

 

Maybe my perception of long range forecasting is wrong, but when someone says it looks very snowy...one of the prerequisites is actual snow but by all means carry on with the KU talk in a progressive pattern that's been pretty well advertised for 10-15 days.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Years in my life with big turnarounds:

1960: Meh winter but bam...great blizzard 3 Morch 1960. Follwing winter was great.

1968-69 which Will has illustrated.

We need some help to emulate those with great blocking events though I'm convinced the 100 hour storm was pure dumb luck as the setup was meh....

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cja1987

cja1987

Posted
Posted

See my perception of reality must be different than yours.

 

 "The beginning of Feb has been looking, for a while, to be very snowy for much of the area. It is quite possible that everything happens faster and I'm definitely guilty of being too slow or fast with transitions. But, I think the ECMWF day 9-10+ is a little too fast and it likely waits until Feb. Of course, who says we can't have two! lol"

 

Maybe my perception of long range forecasting is wrong, but when someone says it looks very snowy...one of the prerequisites is actual snow but by all means carry on with the KU talk.

 

Geeze, are you done yet? This is getting old to read!

 

He said a while back (assuming from the quoted) that the beginning of Feb looked snowy. Even as things are looking to verify Sunday and beyond, we are not "far away" from a very good hit, for this year at least. To say that 10 days ago is not bad. The overall pattern is still halfway decent, as good as or better than anything else of late. There have been multiple posts about how a favorable longwave pattern does not always deliver the storm scale goods and that the skill is not really there to get at those in the long range anyways.

 

So what is your problem? Though you claim to not be emotionally invested in snowy solutions, this is what your arguments towards HM screams of. I think you were fairly optimistic up until last nights 00Z runs. Now you just go after people for being "wrong" 10 days out when a snowy solution is not likely? Is there someplace we can find your 10 day forecast valid for the beginning of Feb so we know exactly what is going to happen?

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted

See my perception of reality must be different than yours.

"The beginning of Feb has been looking, for a while, to be very snowy for much of the area. It is quite possible that everything happens faster and I'm definitely guilty of being too slow or fast with transitions. But, I think the ECMWF day 9-10+ is a little too fast and it likely waits until Feb. Of course, who says we can't have two! lol"

Maybe my perception of long range forecasting is wrong, but when someone says it looks very snowy...one of the prerequisites is actual snow but by all means carry on with the KU talk.

HM nailed the trough in the East for early February but the problem is we have a ridge axis too far east and a lack of southern stream moisture. This results in storms out to sea because of the trough not closing off early enough as well as a parade of dry clippers.
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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

HM nailed the trough in the East for early February but the problem is we have a ridge axis too far east and a lack of southern stream moisture. This results in storms out to sea because of the trough not closing off early enough as well as a parade of dry clippers.

Dead nuts accurate portrayal. It did not snow boo hoo. 

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

Geeze, are you done yet? This is getting old to read!

 

He said a while back (assuming from the quoted) that the beginning of Feb looked snowy. Even as things are looking to verify Sunday and beyond, we are not "far away" from a very good hit, for this year at least. To say that 10 days ago is not bad. The overall pattern is still halfway decent, as good as or better than anything else of late. There have been multiple posts about how a favorable longwave pattern does not always deliver the storm scale goods and that the skill is not really there to get at those in the long range anyways.

 

So what is your problem? Though you claim to not be emotionally invested in snowy solutions, this is what your arguments towards HM screams of. I think you were fairly optimistic up until last nights 00Z runs. Now you just go after people for being "wrong" 10 days out when a snowy solution is not likely? Is there someplace we can find your 10 day forecast valid for the beginning of Feb so we know exactly what is going to happen?

 

I don't care what HM forecasts or doesn't to be honest.  I just think the name calling wasn't needed especially not from a pro, but I should have left it at that.  You'll be very hard pressed to see me insult anyone on these forums just about ever, or anywhere else going back the 20 years I've known guys many of the amateurs like Jerry, Rick and amateurs turned pros like Ryan and others from the various boards/setups and through all the storms from 93, to 1/25/00, through the great winters and the bad winters.  

 

Regardless, his track record this winter and in past winters speaks for itself.

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cja1987

cja1987

Posted
Posted

I don't care what HM forecasts or doesn't to be honest.  I just think the name calling wasn't needed especially not from a pro, but I should have left it at that.

 

His track record this winter and in past winters speaks for itself.

 

I see.

 

Ive only really paid attention to the sensible WX aspects of the discussion hence my comments.

 

You have been on the board for a while, you usually discuss WX, model solutions, etc quite objectively and unemotionally and quite well may I add from what I read. What came out in the past few posts was sort of the opposite and we all know its not rational to nail somebody over relatively minor details in a long term forecast.

 

It does suck, this has been the winter of "promises" but we all know or should understand that chaos reigns supreme and we are even more "subject to it" when in a fast pattern like we have been for most every threat this winter. Its just how things are shaking out. The "non pros" on this forum (who often know about as much as the pros) seem to like a one way street where they are playing along and "in the game" during good times but during bad times and "false promises" they want to call out the pros and turn to the pros for any glimmer of hope. When that does not happen, its all pushed onto the laps of the pros for being "wrong". In reality you could probably have seen most of the writing on the wall yourself. Not a specific dig at you just pointing out a common mindset.

 

Yes, Sunday is another dusting in a relative sense. Even 2"-3" that might happen down your way or farther east is nothing to get excited about at this point. Just write this one off as another dusting, go do something fun, have a few drinks and see whats on the table come Monday.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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I see.

 

Ive only really paid attention to the sensible WX aspects of the discussion hence my comments.

 

You have been on the board for a while, you usually discuss WX, model solutions, etc quite objectively and unemotionally and quite well may I add from what I read. What came out in the past few posts was sort of the opposite and we all know its not rational to nail somebody over relatively minor details in a long term forecast.

 

It does suck, this has been the winter of "promises" but we all know or should understand that chaos reigns supreme and we are even more "subject to it" when in a fast pattern like we have been for most every threat this winter. Its just how things are shaking out. The "non pros" on this forum (who often know about as much as the pros) seem to like a one way street where they are playing along and "in the game" during good times but during bad times and "false promises" they want to call out the pros and turn to the pros for any glimmer of hope. When that does not happen, its all pushed onto the laps of the pros for being "wrong". In reality you could probably have seen most of the writing on the wall yourself. Not a specific dig at you just pointing out a common mindset.

 

Yes, Sunday is another dusting in a relative sense. Even 2"-3" that might happen down your way or farther east is nothing to get excited about at this point. Just write this one off as another dusting, go do something fun, have a few drinks and see whats on the table come Monday.

 

I'm frustrated but not disappointed.  You've read my posts, I've been pretty clear in thinking we were going to get cold around the 18th-20th, have a cutter at the end of the month before getting colder again.  I just wasn't an advocate of the pattern being stormy for the bulk of New England.  As Phil said it's a Cape Cod pattern and even there the systems have largely been suppressed.    Sunday isn't over yet, it's one of the stronger systems we've seen and we all saw what happened in SNJ today with a strong impulse moving offshore.  Kev got crapped on for those comments kind of unfairly..it is a valid point as we approach Sunday.  Guidance was lackluster yet up to 7-8" fell per the PNS.

 

I get what you're saying about the promises stuff and I agree.  I take anything anyone says beyond a few days with much salt and form entirely my own opinions which for the most part have been pretty decent I think this winter.  Even with a view of the pattern that was less favorable than others it's still frustrating because as amateurs we want to believe the pros may know or see something we don't and when they have optimistic views it does boost expectations even if only a little.

 

The reality of this pattern is there have been very few surprises in New England aside of one poorly modeled (in the 48-72 hour range) 1-4" snowstorm for Cape Cod.  Everything else has failed the other way.  It is what it is.

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