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February 2-3rd 2013 Clipper/Redeveloper

USCAPEWEATHERAF

By USCAPEWEATHERAF,
in New England

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted

 

I disagree with most of what you say here. The folly of causation = correlation or vice versa seems to be at play in this post. "we didn't get much snow so that means the pattern sucked"...well maybe from an absolute technical standpoint, that is correct...but that type of detail would be impossible to predict a week out or longer. It sucked because the chaotic nature of shortwave pattern behavior, it didn't suck because the longwave pattern was unfavorable...which is what people discuss when they look at weather beyond a few days out.

"Favorable" does not mean it is a certainty. Something that truly gets lost amongst so many posters here. When talking "favorable" from 10 days out regarding snowstorms, its really just slightly better than 50/50...maybe 60/40 at best. Storm prediction beyond a few days is not the same as temperatures which is why there is so much uncertainty in talking snow. The cold was easy to see coming (despite many posters saying it would never show up), the snow/storm chances are not.

There's a reason we saw so many model threats, and I can say it wasn't because the longwave pattern was unfavorable. There's element of chaos, or luck for layman's terms. Sometimes you comes up unlucky a few times in a row. It happens. Maybe there is a rhyme or reason to the chaos in the shortwaves that someday will become predictable, but that is beyond our understanding as atmospheric scientists right now.

Just my .02

 

Will if you look through some of the threads not just in this forum (like I said I don't post but I do read elsewhere on this site) there were specific calls for it turning snowier.  Those busted for many areas DC north.  That's all fine and good, this is not a perfect science.   Obviously the longwave pattern can be sniffed out, like I said QVector has been incredibly specific and mostly right all winter. 

 

There's probably more at play than the models picking up a longwave pattern.  The GGEM hasn't bitten nearly as often inside of 5 days as the others, and the Euro...well the much heralded changes this spring may have been for the worse.   Remove the SREFs and at times the other NCEP guidance and aside of a few runs of the Euro most of these have been decently forecast.  There isn't really enough room to amplify, I'd like to see higher heights out west and the axis a little west of us so s/w's could dig further to our SW before rounding the corner.  The pattern of these things shooting out at the angle they have blows. 

 

 

I also agree on your last paragraph, there's clearly something going on this year that has the s/w's generally a mess or with multiple centers as they moved down.  Maybe someday we'll better understand what's causing that.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

Posted
Posted

Sunday has that classic off and on light snows, good inflow off the water, ocassional burst of moderate, should look and feel like a winter day..........and in winters like this where it seems like most things don't work out I think we should all just sit back and enjoy it.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

How many coating-2" storms are we going to get this year? It feels like this is the 10th one!

dry begets dry.  Just no real moisture anywhere-most of the US is bone dry.   The clue for us was that November was dry...we had a wetter 2nd half of Dec, but Jan was dry again...winter seems to tip its hand in November and in that case, it was telling us it was going to be a dry one

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HM

HM

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Posted

Distorted reality?  The pattern blows for NE and has for most of the winter no matter how many times we've heard it was getting better.   The cold and dry, warm and wet pattern repeats and I didn't need a meteorology degree to see that a few weeks ago or to look out the window look out any window from NYC to Canada to realize how low the snow cover.  That's the reality.  I'd be more angry at the pattern if it wasn't essentially exactly what I'd felt would happen despite all the positive talk. 

I think you've misunderstood. In one post it's "HM sucks" and in another it's "I wasn't taking a shot at HM." I was making fun of your nonsense and tying that into how you improperly judge a wx situation on your skewed perception of long range forecasting. I suppose it was a stretch for a typed response. Maybe it would have worked better in person.

 

A week or two ago you made a comment about the nutjobs in the other subforum  tracking small events (presumably our subforum).  That small event produced as much snow on the Cape as much of the week or ten day touted events many of which have been talked about at enormous length  If you're going to take shots you should probably be prepared to take them, JMHO, especially one as innocuous as the one I made in pointing out the obvious based on the last 4 weeks.  You may be the best forecaster the AMS has ever given a seal, and I've always thanked you for any answers you've provided but it works both ways. 

You are forgetting a better one a week or two ago when I called you a boner. I think that was funnier than making fun of you for using a water vapor loop to suggest the NWP was wrong. That's always a classic when someone thinks they can watch a wv loop and visualize the future better than a model.

I have no problem taking hits. Maybe you haven't noticed but I've been on these forums for years and every winter I take crap from posters like you. I have pretty thick skin and I think it is hilarious that you think I can't take your hits. I have had far worse things said about me on this forum and past forums.

 

The pattern stinks for snow in NE and has for almost the entire winter aside of a few short periods.  That's the reality, despite much of the implicit or explicit talk of looming change.

 

On another note, the hating on meteorologist whether it's Larry C, Bastardi, etc... ugh.   Who cares, read or don't read them.  Nobody has had a good year, that's the way it is.

LOL at the talk of "looming change" and your ridiculous perception of long range forecasting verification.

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted

Suprised upton is going for almost 2" for me, they usually are quite conservative with events such as this one.

 

-skisheep

NAM has been very consistent (several runs now) with a band of possibly moderate snow sitting over NYC and Long Island and brushing southern CT. Maybe this is why they are going with 2" for most.  Ratios could be good, we got .25" of snow last weekend and there was nothing on radar, so just a little bit can give an inch or two.. we will see. if models continue to back off.. then I wont expect anything more than another dusting..

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