Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Not a rain sounding. All snow. it get warmer at the surface next 3 hours +1.5 C, I would say mix would not be a bad call, non accumulating crap No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It's snowing! Was just looking at radar and it looked like nice squall was roaring thru Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Hmm, shore line at the outer cape on the Nam http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kchh.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well we've had storms where that happens, but we also had plenty of awful busts inside of 96 hours too. A lot of them were in our favor though so we don't have a vitriolic reaction to the models when that happens....take 1/27/11, Boxing Day 2010, 12/16/07, etc. We really remember the bad ones a lot more like 2/10/10, this past December with the Euro and now a couple of the recent storms this January. I do think we had a decent stretch in 2009 where the Euro was on such a roll we could almost bank it from 4 days out, but that was really the exception rather than the rule working there. A lot of it depends on the pattern too. I do agree about the fast flow in this pattern being an issue, I have never thought otherwise. But we get plenty of snow events (and good ones too) in fast flow, so there is more to it than just that. Models definitely seem to have trouble in the very fast flow...esp if the shortwaves are coming in from the NW territories. Thanks Will. I think we have become accustomed to solutions being "locked in" in that 3-4 day range historically on the forums and that just has not been the case in my recent memory. The PAC is really messing with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cja1987 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Did Noyes tweet anything about inland? Was "mix at the coast" not all he said? He could very well think precip brushes the cape and thinks its gonna be warmer than models show right now. That has never happened now, has it? Expecting snow and got rain? Mix at the coast in the real world means mix at the coast. Translated to weenie it means "The storm is coming close enough to taint the s coast/cape and inland is getting clobbered w/snow" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kchh.txt So Chatham and Ptown are the same place? Mix at the shore is not the disservice you claim and yes some models have 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Did Noyes tweet anything about inland? Was "mix at the coast" not all he said? He could very well think precip brushes the cape and thinks its gonna be warmer than models show right now. That has never happened now, has it? Expecting snow and got rain? Mix at the coast in the real world means mix at the coast. Translated to weenie it means "The storm is coming close enough to taint the s coast/cape and inland is getting clobbered w/snow" Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 No. disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Was just looking at radar and it looked like nice squall was roaring thru Well there you go. Enjoy. Looking at BOX, you'd think there was precip out on ACK. Nope. Nothing reported at the ASOS. Heavy, heavy virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Maybe I'm blinded but it seemed like a few years ago, once a solution locked in around 96h or so, that more or less came to fruition. Now it just seems as though there is more chaos in the models and their output. Especially this past few weeks where right up to 24h the models were drastically changing. S/W's just seem to me more of a mess as of late than they used to be. I started a thread ago a couple years back asking why it seemed that forecasting was more accurate 10-15 yrs ago. Do we now have too much information/data to interpret and make an accurate forecast these days? I'm talking mostly about precip type events- rain or snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Was just looking at radar and it looked like nice squall was roaring thru Yeah, and the wind is making it look like a mini blizzard right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 So Chatham and Ptown are the same place? Mix at the shore is not the disservice you claim and yes some models have 1-3. They are pretty close geographically. Did you miss my 1-2" call for CC? I don;t see 1-3" back your way. Just how I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 They are pretty close geographically. Did you miss my 1-2" call for CC? I don;t see 1-3" back your way. Just how I see it. Ballsy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 No. disagree Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ballsy Also, the CHH soundings I posted were warmer than the PVC ones. http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_kpvc.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Did Noyes tweet anything about inland? Was "mix at the coast" not all he said? He could very well think precip brushes the cape and thinks its gonna be warmer than models show right now. That has never happened now, has it? Expecting snow and got rain? Mix at the coast in the real world means mix at the coast. Translated to weenie it means "The storm is coming close enough to taint the s coast/cape and inland is getting clobbered w/snow" Yesssah @MattNoyesNECN: At least a couple of inches of snow likely for many Sunday...perhaps more Eastern areas...more coming this eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Peaks of blue sky now after a quick coating... similar to a summertime thunderstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 So, whats wrong with this on Sunday, more after this to...........its not a blizzard but jeez I will enjoy a few inches of fluff. Flurries here, yay:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 18z NAM would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yesssah @MattNoyesNECN: At least a couple of inches of snow likely for many Sunday...perhaps more Eastern areas...more coming this eve @MattNoyesNECN: "Good thing I don't read weather boards!" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Models!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah, and the wind is making it look like a mini blizzard right now. Meh here right now, just a few lonely flurries despite the radar showing snow overhead. We had a squall move through here around 10:00am this morning, but nothing really accumulated. It is cold though at 24F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 18z NAM would be nice Indeed it would, but it lost me at the word NAM. It spins up a piece of vorticity that hits us pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ok I still think 2-4 is a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Models!! blizz vs the models forecast map tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Might be time for my forum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Might be time for my forum lolYou have your own? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S&P Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 He doesn't have a pay for subscription site. He's not trying trying to suck anyone into anything. He knows full well if he busts he loses viewers and ratings. So I don't understand this idea of sucking people in. By mentioning a mix of rain and snow on the coast , I can't possibly see how that is hype or trying to lure innocent victims into the back of his white, windowless custom van monetizing twitter is what gives it value and anyone with more than their friends as followers uses it as such. it's february a ratings month, eyeballs on his blog equals $s from advertisers. not making a judgement on his forcast, just pointing out how social media can be used Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Meh here right now, just a few lonely flurries despite the radar showing snow overhead. We had a squall move through here around 10:00am this morning, but nothing really accumulated. It is cold though at 24F. The squalls are moving quickly Southeast, so you might get another one soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What I'm saying is that I really don't think the meteorology is impacted by ratings. The presentation yes (especially the news part of it)...meteorology no. Yeah, I agree with what you're saying. While weather drives ratings without a doubt there's nothing that makes me want to "play up" a storm if it's not going to be a big deal. It makes me look stupid hyping up a storm lol. I can see weather hype helping with gaining social media/blog followers, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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