SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I mean I'm sure by tweeting the coast may mix with rain while inland snows has folks in an uproar. Folks will be flocking to tvs tonight. Biggest ratings night of the year Ha exactly. I don't think it's a crime for him to share his thoughts especially if it's on the Internet. He's not going on air and telling people prepare for a blizzard just to freak people out so they'll watch him say flurries at 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ha exactly. I don't think it's a crime for him to share his thoughts especially if it's on the Internet. He's not going on air and telling people prepare for a blizzard just to freak people out so they'll watch him say flurries at 9. Ironically, it's a crime to some on this board to say little or no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 just had a 5 minute squall here probably the best well get all weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Just curious, but other then the mets, who I can understand posting daily and is part of their job, how does everyone else find the time to post so much, interpret models, etc during their regular job? I am guilty as most, but would probably get a hand slap if my boss knew how much I read the forum during the day. Ha ha. right. Personally I am between jobs - interviewing a lot, so it shouldn't be too much longer, but ... I think the topic at hand/forum being "weather" makes a big difference. If it were any other, such as those sloped toward entertainment (and don't get me wrong, for a lot on here this IS their entertainment ), the proverbial "boss" would probably be less forgiving. I worked a gig a while ago where the man walked by my cubical and saw weather charts; considering I was at the time a c-coder, there was zippo relevance from which to argue a lie. But the conversation went kind of like: "What is that you are looking at?" Me thinking, 'oh schit, f, busted!', then saying, "weather charts - I heard we might be getting a storm." Boss, "You understand those?" Me, "Yeah - I", nodding lightly so as to encourage acceptance, " am a Meteorologist from schooling." Boss, "Oh, that's right. It was on your resume", smile. "So what does it look like. Are we going to get nailed?" Next thing I knew I was giving a 101 on following impulses in the streams. "Huh, fascinating - it's amazing you can see all that just from a bunch of squiggly lines. Welp, keep us posted." 10 days later, "Hey, John. I have to do x,y,z on Saturday but heard it might snow - what's your take?" Me, "Ah ... I haven't had a chance to look" - lie. "I'll take a gander at lunch." Next thing you know, viola, I have a kind of non-disclosed permission set up for weather-related stuff. Although, to your point, the "Forum" is probably a tougher sell than just weather. But that's a simple matter of some additional dialogue: "Oh, yeah, just quickly reading through the other Meteorologists opinions on the storm." The thing is, weather affect/effects everyone, more so immeasurably compared to reading about Ashton Kucher's break up with Demi Moore, or why some dingaling judge on American Idol threw what temper-tantrum. Therefore, the bosses ...in most cases shy of being douchy, will tend to give latitude. From that launching pad, people abuse the privilege, too. I don't think I have ever heard of anyone being "let go" because of a penchants to look up weather related topic, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ironically, it's a crime to some on this board to say little or no snow. Lol I know people tend to get pissed when you guys just tell it how you see it with regards to a storm if it means downgrading it, but if you didn't it'd just be a wx fantasy camp board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ha wow. I think HM and mr. Rollo Tamale (or whatever his name is spelled) should lace up the gloves and go 15 rounds to blow off some steam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I mean I'm sure by tweeting the coast may mix with rain while inland snows has folks in an uproar. Folks will be flocking to tvs tonight. Biggest ratings night of the year I honestly don't believe ratings play into any of the forecasting on any of the Boston TV stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I honestly don't believe ratings play into any of the forecasting on any of the Boston TV stations. What about followers on FB or Twitter. You don't think they look at the number of followers they have and get a rise out of it? I think some do a disservice to the field when they send out nonsense like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 This board has a weird fascination with tv mets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 good job not taking the bait...I'm impressed...and even putting a positive spin on the response! you'd think someone who loves to tell everyone else what and how to forecast would jump at the opportunity to prove himself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What about followers on FB or Twitter. You don't think they look at the number of followers they have and get a rise out of it? I think some do a disservice to the field when they send out nonsense like that. Its a disservice to say a chance of snow and maybe a mix at the coast, LOL really I mean really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ha wow. I think HM and mr. Rollo Tamale (or whatever his name is spelled) should lace up the gloves and go 15 rounds to blow off some steam. Would love to but I'm too busy studying the water vapor for a day 5 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I mean I'm sure by tweeting the coast may mix with rain while inland snows has folks in an uproar. Folks will be flocking to tvs tonight. Biggest ratings night of the year I honestly don't believe ratings play into any of the forecasting on any of the Boston TV stations. Really??? "They say" the TV weatherman is the most recognized person on television crews Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 you'd think someone who loves to tell everyone else what and how to forecast would jump at the opportunity to prove himself you and he are opposite ends of a pole sometimes... him telling us it will snow snow snow and you popping in to point out that it won't snow. Who are those women who keep appearing in your avatar btw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 This board has a weird fascination with tv mets I have DirecTV at home so am limited to the PVD market only, And it's usually ABC6 in the AM. That's my exposure to TV METs right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Its a disservice to say a chance of snow and maybe a mix at the coast, LOL really I mean really? When not one legitimate piece of guidance shows it, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 we need to stop pinning threads it's the new kiss of death.. like the radio show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What about followers on FB or Twitter. You don't think they look at the number of followers they have and get a rise out of it? I think some do a disservice to the field when they send out nonsense like that. That's a bit different. Some clearly use it as more of an advertising tool than others (i.e.catch my forecast for this snow at 6, then I'll post more details here)... but I think that for the most part, our TV mets do a really good job telling the truth on social media too. Perhaps I'm biased because I'm looking to enter the field, but I think most call it as they see it, bold or not. Not saying I agree or disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Really??? "They say" the TV weatherman is the most recognized person on television crews What I'm saying is that I really don't think the meteorology is impacted by ratings. The presentation yes (especially the news part of it)...meteorology no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 we need to stop pinning threads it's the new kiss of death.. like the radio show. lol, Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Distorted reality? The pattern blows for NE and has for most of the winter no matter how many times we've heard it was getting better. The cold and dry, warm and wet pattern repeats and I didn't need a meteorology degree to see that a few weeks ago or to look out the window look out any window from NYC to Canada to realize how low the snow cover. That's the reality. I'd be more angry at the pattern if it wasn't essentially exactly what I'd felt would happen despite all the positive talk. A week or two ago you made a comment about the nutjobs in the other subforum tracking small events (presumably our subforum). That small event produced as much snow on the Cape as much of the week or ten day touted events many of which have been talked about at enormous length If you're going to take shots you should probably be prepared to take them, JMHO, especially one as innocuous as the one I made in pointing out the obvious based on the last 4 weeks. You may be the best forecaster the AMS has ever given a seal, and I've always thanked you for any answers you've provided but it works both ways. The pattern stinks for snow in NE and has for almost the entire winter aside of a few short periods. That's the reality, despite much of the implicit or explicit talk of looming change. On another note, the hating on meteorologist whether it's Larry C, Bastardi, etc... ugh. Who cares, read or don't read them. Nobody has had a good year, that's the way it is. I disagree with most of what you say here. The folly of causation = correlation or vice versa seems to be at play in this post. "we didn't get much snow so that means the pattern sucked"...well maybe from an absolute technical standpoint, that is correct...but that type of detail would be impossible to predict a week out or longer. It sucked because the chaotic nature of shortwave pattern behavior, it didn't suck because the longwave pattern was unfavorable...which is what people discuss when they look at weather beyond a few days out. "Favorable" does not mean it is a certainty. Something that truly gets lost amongst so many posters here. When talking "favorable" from 10 days out regarding snowstorms, its really just slightly better than 50/50...maybe 60/40 at best. Storm prediction beyond a few days is not the same as temperatures which is why there is so much uncertainty in talking snow. The cold was easy to see coming (despite many posters saying it would never show up), the snow/storm chances are not. There's a reason we saw so many model threats, and I can say it wasn't because the longwave pattern was unfavorable. There's element of chaos, or luck for layman's terms. Sometimes you comes up unlucky a few times in a row. It happens. Maybe there is a rhyme or reason to the chaos in the shortwaves that someday will become predictable, but that is beyond our understanding as atmospheric scientists right now. Just my .02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 When not one legitimate piece of guidance shows it, yes. Hmm, shore line at the outer cape on the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Really??? "They say" the TV weatherman is the most recognized person on television crews What I'm saying is that I really don't think the meteorology is impacted by ratings. The presentation yes (especially the news part of it)...meteorology no. Hmmm. Interesting thought. Maybe CT Rain can add his thoughts. I think it does, but I could very well be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I disagree with most of what you say here. The folly of causation = correlation or vice versa seems to be at play in this post. "we didn't get much snow so that means the pattern sucked"...well maybe from an absolute technical standpoint, that is correct...but that type of detail would be impossible to predict a week out or longer. It sucked because the chaotic nature of shortwave pattern behavior, it didn't suck because the longwave pattern was unfavorable...which is what people discuss when they look at weather beyond a few days out. "Favorable" does not mean it is a certainty. Something that truly gets lost amongst so many posters here. When talking "favorable" from 10 days out regarding snowstorms, its really just slightly better than 50/50...maybe 60/40 at best. Storm prediction beyond a few days is not the same as temperatures which is why there is so much uncertainty in talking snow. The cold was easy to see coming (despite many posters saying it would never show up), the snow/storm chances are not. There's a reason we saw so many model threats, and I can say it wasn't because the longwave pattern was unfavorable. There's element of chaos, or luck for layman's terms. Sometimes you comes up unlucky a few times in a row. It happens. Maybe there is a rhyme or reason to the chaos in the shortwaves that someday will become predictable, but that is beyond our understanding as atmospheric scientists right now. Just my .02 Maybe I'm blinded but it seemed like a few years ago, once a solution locked in around 96h or so, that more or less came to fruition. Now it just seems as though there is more chaos in the models and their output. Especially this past few weeks where right up to 24h the models were drastically changing. S/W's just seem to me more of a mess as of late than they used to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 When not one legitimate piece of guidance shows it, yes. Hmm, shore line at the outer cape on the Nam That's 100% snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Hmm, shore line at the outer cape on the Nam Not a rain sounding. All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 It's snowing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Not a rain sounding. All snow. it get warmer at the surface next 3 hours +1.5 C, I would say mix would not be a bad call, non accumulating crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Not a rain sounding. All snow. If that sounding were about 2-3C warmer at the surface up to about 950-925mb, than yes. Also the soundings out there show some instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Maybe I'm blinded but it seemed like a few years ago, once a solution locked in around 96h or so, that more or less came to fruition. Now it just seems as though there is more chaos in the models and their output. Especially this past few weeks where right up to 24h the models were drastically changing. S/W's just seem to me more of a mess as of late than they used to be. Well we've had storms where that happens, but we also had plenty of awful busts inside of 96 hours too. A lot of them were in our favor though so we don't have a vitriolic reaction to the models when that happens....take 1/27/11, Boxing Day 2010, 12/16/07, etc. We really remember the bad ones a lot more like 2/10/10, this past December with the Euro and now a couple of the recent storms this January. I do think we had a decent stretch in 2009 where the Euro was on such a roll we could almost bank it from 4 days out, but that was really the exception rather than the rule working there. A lot of it depends on the pattern too. I do agree about the fast flow in this pattern being an issue, I have never thought otherwise. But we get plenty of snow events (and good ones too) in fast flow, so there is more to it than just that. Models definitely seem to have trouble in the very fast flow...esp if the shortwaves are coming in from the NW territories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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