February 2-3rd 2013 Clipper/Redeveloper

[mattb65]

Hurty hurtz on here, snow is serious biz.

[Damage In Tolland]

He knows his stuff, but is jumping the shark trying to suck people in. I lose respect for that.

Suck people into what? A free tv wx forecast? By forecasting a possible mix of precip for the south coast?

[mahk_webstah]

That's correct, because we'd be dead.

 

It's like having an overly optimistic young child or person with severe mental disabilities happily running around a room full of fully-functional adults. His cheery nonsense is tolerable in good times, but when things run dry, everyone just kind of wants to wind up and bitchslap the runt of the logical litter that won't shut up.

 

Of course, this is one of the finest types of moments in this subforum, at least for comedy value; another coulda-woulda-shoulda been event withers in the models from what once seemed promising, and even many of the usually-stoic posters take on a thirst for blood.

 

Then somebody gets eaten, the posts get cleaned out, a threat appears around day five, and the circle of weather board life continues.

 

Delicious.

+1000

who gets eaten this time?

Kevin has been gang banged a bit the last couple weeks, but not eaten.

noreaster27 gets slapped but he runs away so we can't put him in the pot.

eduggs/educate has come back from the dark side

mr. tomasi is undigestible  

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Ive noticed on Twitter you guys are Tweet buddies. He reads this forum daily, so I'd hate to see you say something negative about him and have it come back to bite you

 

Lot of that going on lately.

 

You never know who you'll end up working with or for someday. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Suck people into what? A free tv wx forecast? By forecasting a possible mix of precip for the south coast?

 

Again.  Rather than just send out a tweet like that.  Explain why.  Where is he seeing it on the models.  The only place I see it are on some of the huge amped up ARW solutions.  The NAM/UKIE/GFS/RGEM/GGEM/EURO showing nothing close to mixing on the coast. 

[CoastalWx]

Suck people into what? A free tv wx forecast? By forecasting a possible mix of precip for the south coast?

 

Because it's irresponsible to base that off a weenie RPM run. Mix to the coast? As it is, it would have to come further west by a decent margin to mix ACK.

 

As a met, like his weenie wishcast of a storm last week....it's irresponsible and Busthardy-like.

[Damage In Tolland]

Again. Rather than just send out a tweet like that. Explain why. Where is he seeing it on the models. The only place I see it are on some of the huge amped up ARW solutions. The NAM/UKIE/GFS/RGEM/GGEM/EURO showing nothing close to mixing on the coast.

Matt is another who doesn't blindly follow models and think they are right. They are only one small piece

[CoastalWx]

Matt is another who doesn't blindly follow models and think they are right. They are only one small piece

 

You can't rule out a little snow or a weenie C-1" weenie band somewhere other than the Cape...but looking long and hard..it seems tough to go back to the solutions of yesterday...and that is not using models.

[cja1987]

Because it's irresponsible to base that off a weenie RPM run. Mix to the coast? As it is, it would have to come further west by a decent margin to mix ACK.

 

As a met, like his weenie wishcast of a storm last week....it's irresponsible and Busthardy-like.

 

Noyes is probably among the best in New England when it comes to TV mets who really know their stuff.

 

That said, I've been watching him on NECN since he started there and I was still in high school. I've yet to figure out what makes him weenie out 2/3's of the time and what makes him be unimpressed like his (partially) correct call in not being impressed with the NORLUN that was not. Baffles me.

 

Still, there is something to be said for independent thinking and its scored him some points in the past. Many of us hinge on every single model run and certainly the forum at large agonizes for pages over each run. It gets to the point where I sometimes wonder if we are even using our collective heads? Why not just tie a program into the model data that spits out posts/forecasts for us? I wonder this about myself too, not just others and I'm not even "in the field". No I dont think anything comes of Sunday but its just an observation in general.

[PWMan]

Unbelievable, he's a joke.

I know he's a big proponent of giving blood, and they've been in the midst of a big donation campaign. Maybe he's lightheaded.

[Patrick-02540]

Here's my map from Forky's image.

 

base.gif

This must be why in 2011 Money Magazine ranked Tolland the 37th Best Small Town in America to live in.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Noyes is probably among the best in New England when it comes to TV mets who really know their stuff.

 

That said, I've been watching him on NECN since he started there and I was still in high school. I've yet to figure out what makes him weenie out 2/3's of the time and what makes him be unimpressed like his (partially) correct call in not being impressed with the NORLUN that was not. Baffles me.

 

Still, there is something to be said for independent thinking and its scored him some points in the past. Many of us hinge on every single model run and certainly the forum at large agonizes for pages over each run. It gets to the point where I sometimes wonder if we are even using our collective heads? Why not just tie a program into the model data that spits out posts/forecasts for us? I wonder this about myself too, not just others and I'm not even "in the field". No I dont think anything comes of Sunday but its just an observation in general.

 

One word.  RATINGS.

[Lava Rock]

Just curious, but other then the mets, who I can understand posting daily and is part of their job, how does everyone else find the time to post so much, interpret models, etc during their regular job? I am guilty as most, but would probably get a hand slap if my boss knew how much I read the forum during the day.

[N. OF PIKE]

I know he's a big proponent of giving blood, and they've been in the midst of a big donation campaign. Maybe he's lightheaded.

i know he doesn't think it's gonna mix at the south coast. 

 

 

Perhaps it in the interest of the network to hype weather events responsibly if you can backpeddle efficiently without making it seem like you were on the crazy train, just will generate a bit more viewers to tune in later to said network. Ya that is what it is......and in an effort to do that....he sorta loses credibility, imo.

[Ginx snewx]

That's correct, because we'd be dead.

 

It's like having an overly optimistic young child or person with severe mental disabilities happily running around a room full of fully-functional adults. His cheery nonsense is tolerable in good times, but when things run dry, everyone just kind of wants to wind up and bitchslap the runt of the logical litter that won't shut up.

 

Of course, this is one of the finest types of moments in this subforum, at least for comedy value; another coulda-woulda-shoulda been event withers in the models from what once seemed promising, and even many of the usually-stoic posters take on a thirst for blood.

 

Then somebody gets eaten, the posts get cleaned out, a threat appears around day five, and the circle of weather board life continues.

 

Delicious.

Perfect LOL

[Zeus]

+1000

who gets eaten this time?

Kevin has been gang banged a bit the last couple weeks, but not eaten.

noreaster27 gets slapped but he runs away so we can't put him in the pot.

eduggs/educate has come back from the dark side

mr. tomasi is undigestible  

 

It's always difficult to predict who the main course of the bloodfeast will be.

 

Thankfully, less difficult than the weather.

[Damage In Tolland]

He doesn't have a pay for subscription site. He's not trying trying to suck anyone into anything. He knows full well if he busts he loses viewers and ratings. So I don't understand this idea of sucking people in. By mentioning a mix of rain and snow on the coast , I can't possibly see how that is hype or trying to lure innocent victims into the back of his white, windowless custom van

[Ginx snewx]

Again.  Rather than just send out a tweet like that.  Explain why.  Where is he seeing it on the models.  The only place I see it are on some of the huge amped up ARW solutions.  The NAM/UKIE/GFS/RGEM/GGEM/EURO showing nothing close to mixing on the coast. 

Did all of you miss the Bufkit I posted?

[CoastalWx]

Noyes is probably among the best in New England when it comes to TV mets who really know their stuff.

 

That said, I've been watching him on NECN since he started there and I was still in high school. I've yet to figure out what makes him weenie out 2/3's of the time and what makes him be unimpressed like his (partially) correct call in not being impressed with the NORLUN that was not. Baffles me.

 

Still, there is something to be said for independent thinking and its scored him some points in the past. Many of us hinge on every single model run and certainly the forum at large agonizes for pages over each run. It gets to the point where I sometimes wonder if we are even using our collective heads? Why not just tie a program into the model data that spits out posts/forecasts for us? I wonder this about myself too, not just others and I'm not even "in the field". No I dont think anything comes of Sunday but its just an observation in general.

 

I use my head every day to challenge models. Snow is a classic example. I know if models show a dryslot racing in, I'm not getting the 1.5" QPF it's showing because guidance is too bulish with QPF once we get the dryslot. I also know QPF will not cut it in a deformation band, and you go bullish.

 

It's possible the speed of the second s/w is modeled horribly and it will catch up....but other than closing your eyes and wishing real hard, I don't see science behind a forecast of mixing to the coast.

[CoastalWx]

But it doesn't matter, for every 20 busts...weenies will remember the one get wished right because that's how weenies role.

[PWMan]

I think it's important to remember that 99.999999% of the public doesn't pay much attention to what mets speculate on their FB pages or twitter feeds. Those of us on this board, and others who would actually follow a meteorologist, generally know enough to make the distinction between a forecast and off-the-cuff musings. I think it's awesome that Noyes and others are willing to open up and share their informal thoughts with us, and I'd hate to see a chilling effect where they felt they couldn't post without risking backlash or having people misrepresent their positions.

[Baroclinic Zone]

15z SREFs went the way of the rest of the guidance.  Drier.  0.25" is now limited to E MA.  No 0.5" contour.

[Patrick-02540]

Not the point Will and you should know by now I really don't care about MBY if I did and it was about snow I wouldn't live where I do, I'd live in Kevin's garage.

 

Those 1-3, and I thought there were some 4" reports would make it one of the larger storms of the winter.  Just because it didn't hit Boston or Worcester.... it'll probably have provided more snow than what's now a 30 page thread on a cloud passing event. 

 

NOBODY has had an exceptional year pro or otherwise forecasting.   About the only one I've seen with a real thumb on things is QVector.   I was tongue and cheek with the person posting about an event 7-10 days away and it is probably just about a 50/50 proposition that half the forecast cutters ended up under us or gonzo.   It wasn't a shot at HM, simple statement that I don't think at day 7-10 in this pattern anyone has really had a strong handle on things.

Oh my, that brought a chuckle!

[SlantStickers Anonymous]

He doesn't have a pay for subscription site. He's not trying trying to suck anyone into anything. He knows full well if he busts he loses viewers and ratings. So I don't understand this idea of sucking people in. By mentioning a mix of rain and snow on the coast , I can't possibly see how that is hype or trying to lure innocent victims into the back of his white, windowless custom van

Lol I can agree with this. I feel like he doesn't go in depth on *why* he thinks an event might play out a particular way on air because the majority of the news viewing audience likely doesn't care why, they just want to know "will it be sunny or not?"

[cja1987]

One word.  RATINGS.

 

Nope, its not that simple otherwise I would not be wondering. Harv and Dick never got the ratings by weening out and wishcasting, they got ratings by being good and consistent.

 

 

He doesn't have a pay for subscription site. He's not trying trying to suck anyone into anything. He knows full well if he busts he loses viewers and ratings. So I don't understand this idea of sucking people in. By mentioning a mix of rain and snow on the coast , I can't possibly see how that is hype or trying to lure innocent victims into the back of his white, windowless custom van

 

Yes. I don't see him as having a whole hell of alot to gain. You can tell when passion is news director induced and when its real. Noyes is truly passionate and after the "correct" forecast even when he does weenie out. Its as plain as day when a met is wish casting, seen enough of it to know. As far as his website goes, once again he does it for himself, not NECN and does not charge anything so why the need to attract an audience by saying crazy stuff?

 

Noyes truly believes what he says, as a met, I just can't find the method to his madness despite their being one.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Peope gettin' testy.  Need to get a storm sometime...

[Baroclinic Zone]

Did all of you miss the Bufkit I posted?

 

I saw them.  The IJD mean was less than 1" and the HYA mean was ~2.5".

[Damage In Tolland]

Lol I can agree with this. I feel like he doesn't go in depth on *why* he thinks an event might play out a particular way because the majority of the news viewing audience likely doesn't care why, they just want to know "will it be sunny or not?"

I mean I'm sure by tweeting the coast may mix with rain while inland snows has folks in an uproar. Folks will be flocking to tvs tonight. Biggest ratings night of the year

[Clinch Leatherwood]

You got angry and said how you really feel: you think my forecasting has sucked this year which is a shot at me. Once again you continue to distort reality over and over and post about your distorted reality of things over and over again to the point where good conversation about the weather gets lost. You are in NO position to make a comment about medium range accuracy, period. In fact, you should feel privileged to be part of a forum that openly discusses possibilities beyond day 3. The reason you are in no position to make a comment about accuracy is because you clearly don't understand where the science is and what forecasting is capable of beyond a certain point. You lack the basics of chaos theory, modeling etc. and you probably don't pay for long range forecasts (but maybe you do, I don't know).

 

Distorted reality?  The pattern blows for NE and has for most of the winter no matter how many times we've heard it was getting better.   The cold and dry, warm and wet pattern repeats and I didn't need a meteorology degree to see that a few weeks ago or to look out the window look out any window from NYC to Canada to realize how low the snow cover.  That's the reality.  I'd be more angry at the pattern if it wasn't essentially exactly what I'd felt would happen despite all the positive talk. 

 

A week or two ago you made a comment about the nutjobs in the other subforum  tracking small events (presumably our subforum).  That small event produced as much snow on the Cape as much of the week or ten day touted events many of which have been talked about at enormous length  If you're going to take shots you should probably be prepared to take them, JMHO, especially one as innocuous as the one I made in pointing out the obvious based on the last 4 weeks.  You may be the best forecaster the AMS has ever given a seal, and I've always thanked you for any answers you've provided but it works both ways. 

 

The pattern stinks for snow in NE and has for almost the entire winter aside of a few short periods.  That's the reality, despite much of the implicit or explicit talk of looming change.

 

On another note, the hating on meteorologist whether it's Larry C, Bastardi, etc... ugh.   Who cares, read or don't read them.  Nobody has had a good year, that's the way it is.

[Ginx snewx]

All this talk of the Pac screwing us this year, wonder if the Atlantic is the real reason.

 

I saw them.  The IJD mean was less than 1" and the HYA mean was ~2.5".

1-3 was a ballsy call based on models is what you said at the time.