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February 2-3rd 2013 Clipper/Redeveloper


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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I just want another 12/29/12. Best event since 10/27/11.

 

 

That was one storm that came back in our favor after trending sour inside of 4 days. Final 24 hours brought it back. Except the RPM nailed it from 60 hours out, lol.

 

I don't think there is enough room for this one to amplify like that one did though. There's a bit more room for 2/6 to amplify, but its going to need a little help from the PV to the north.

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0Z actually had like .25 at CHH... Would be happy if it would hold serve

 

 

Had a sharp cutoff though, the rest of us had like 0.03" or something, lol. So at least for most of us, it really can't get worse. I guess it could give us zero.

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Models tend to bring these storms more to the southeast with time as we get closer to an event.  With a western ridge and eastern trough, likelihood for a major east coast snowstorm increases, but there are finite details that go unsolved until the day of an event.  Models tend to fluctuate with a bunch of timing issues between disturbances as such a fluid situation will not allow finite details to be resolved ahead of time.  As little as the handling of the western circulation of the mid latitude cyclone is abysmal, I like my chances with a much better in hand comma head, one that resembles a rapidly intensifying cyclone as well as cold conveyor belt that lashes the eastern New England coastline with copious amounts of snow.  Now with the models's handling of every small shortwave disturbance ever so important, one tick off in timing will lead to upstream consequences we did not yet see, so as for the next 24 hours of computer model runs ticking time I would venture to guess a comma head that is more circular in nature will come out and play.  Greatest pressure falls and to the northwest is where the heaviest snows will occur, question is too far offshore, or right on shore?

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Models tend to bring these storms more to the southeast with time as we get closer to an event. With a western ridge and eastern trough, likelihood for a major east coast snowstorm increases, but there are finite details that go unsolved until the day of an event. Models tend to fluctuate with a bunch of timing issues between disturbances as such a fluid situation will not allow finite details to be resolved ahead of time. As little as the handling of the western circulation of the mid latitude cyclone is abysmal, I like my chances with a much better in hand comma head, one that resembles a rapidly intensifying cyclone as well as cold conveyor belt that lashes the eastern New England coastline with copious amounts of snow. Now with the models's handling of every small shortwave disturbance ever so important, one tick off in timing will lead to upstream consequences we did not yet see, so as for the next 24 hours of computer model runs ticking time I would venture to guess a comma head that is more circular in nature will come out and play. Greatest pressure falls and to the northwest is where the heaviest snows will occur, question is too far offshore, or right on shore?

Tip Jr. The first lesson today is put the models away and make a forecast not using them
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Were the signs written in pencil?

I'm trying to offset the negativity. Ryan says the gfs is boring, HM says no. Scooter joined the crew or whale wars this morning so he can see actual snow, Tip wrote a follow up to the Iliad, Jerry is having daytime nightmares about fat squirrels and Steve is trying to find an analog for this catastrophe that turns positive.

The pattern has played out pretty much like I thought. Warm and wet cold and dry. I think that changes in 8-10 or so days. But we have another week or so of tracking cirrus.

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