February 2-3rd 2013 Clipper/Redeveloper

[Baroclinic Zone]

Winter burn FTL.

At least the rain the other helped that issue out with the plants.

[Ginx snewx]

In the arms of an angel....

[Tropopause_Fold]

i would welcome a mix at this point - would actually mean this thing is coming remotely close to the area.

This whole system screams, MEH, to me. Too many cooks in the kitchen to get anything remotely well defined.

I'd back off BOXs forecast by 1/2 based on what I see. Best chance for accumulating snows will be in SE MA and CC. General 1-3 with a T-1" for western areas of the CWA.

Overall yeah I would agree. I do think it's about 18 to 24 hours too early to lock it entirely - But i wouldn't expect any big changes at this point.

from this point forward it basically comes down to whether we get anything or just nothing at all

[amarshall]

A new eddy has spun off the gulf stream.  That's some toasty water 120 miles south of Nantucket.

 

[SR Airglow]

I could see western areas getting more than SE coast as coastal completely goes OTS. Food for thought

I could see something like this happening, western areas get the primary, plus SW CT has potential from the norlun that the NAM and EURO have over NYC, since they often move NE in reality. Eastern areas get the scape from the coastal, and the center is left with nothing/snow showers.

 

Right now, going 1-3" in Fairfield County(With potential for locally higher based on Norlun track) and east of the CT/RI border, 2-4" on the Cape and C-1" for everyone else. That's somewhat agressive, but also with the last one, the system came back a bit on the later runs, and I think that this might be a scenario where the GFS is overcorrecting, and it will correct back to an extent.

 

-skisheep

[PWMan]

Some areas should expect mixing as well

Yes -- occasional light snow or flurries mixed with filtered sunshine.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Overall yeah I would agree. I do think it's about 18 to 24 hours too early to lock it entirely - But i wouldn't expect any big changes at this point.

from this point forward it basically comes down to whether we get anything or just nothing at all

 

Yeah, any shot at the big dog phase is off the table.  And with the developing secondary, there will definitely be a sucker hole somewhere in between.

[USCAPEWEATHERAF]

I think models are mishandling the western comma head of the storm, a 991mb low will have a larger comma head then currently modeled.  Rapid bombogenesis favors eastern New England with heaviest snows.  THe jackpot zone is to the northwest of the greatest pressure falls.

[dryslot]

OT a bit but had to laugh last night when i saw a vehicle with PA plates that had FYA 21 on it

[CoastalWx]

I think models are mishandling the western comma head of the storm, a 991mb low will have a larger comma head then currently modeled.  Rapid bombogenesis favors eastern New England with heaviest snows.  THe jackpot zone is to the northwest of the greatest pressure falls.

 

I salute you.

[weathafella]

Chicago expecting 2-4 tonight. That's possibly ours Sunday

Lol..it would double their season to date.

[weathafella]

None of your glorious models gave Delaware or S Jersey 6 inches of snow this morning. Put the f'ing models away and forecast on pattern and instincts

We are. The pattern sucks.

[Typhoon Tip]

Here is the HPC reasoning at 4:15am

 

 

A MORE INTERESTING DAY IS IN STORE ON DAY 3...WHEN THE TWOSEPARATE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO MERGE OR AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MERGE INTOA DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEUKMET AND NAM PCPN WERE WETTER ALONG THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLANDCOAST COMPARED TO THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS. THE UKMET INPARTICULAR WAS THE DEEPER AND FARTHEST W WITH THE LOW COMPARED TOTHE OTHER MODELS...THOUGH NOT BY MUCH AT 00Z AS THE SPREADDIMINISHES A BIT OVER PRIOR RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED CLOSER TOTHE GFS...AS BOTH OF THESE MODELS AVERAGE BTWN A TENTH UP TO AQUARTER INCH OF LIQUID PCPN ALONG THE NE COAST...WITH THE HIGHESTAMOUNTS OFFSHORE. HPC FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOW-MOD PROBABILITY OFGREATER THAN 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST (MODERATE) PROBS CONFINEDCLOSER TO THE COAST FROM RI TO ERN CT/MA. PROBABILITIES OF GREATERTHAN 8 INCHES...ALBEIT LOW (10%)...WERE NOTED OVER THIS SAMEAREA...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAPID COASTAL CYCLOGENESISAND (THUS) A SFC LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS IT IS...MANY OFTHE 00Z MODELS INDICATED AN AVERAGE DEEPENING OF 12-15MB IN 12 HRS(FROM 12Z SUN TO 00Z MON) AS THE SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE MIDATLC COAST AND TRACKS NE.

 

If I were an employee at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and one of my responsibilities included public notifications I would be compelled (lest I do not value my job) to discuss this.  The general appeal of having negatively tilted short wave dynamics careening off the Mid Atlantic  - if NCEP went with the "no mention" and then things worked out the other way, I would have a tough time imagining a Meteorologist before a board of inquiry, having much success with the excuse: "It just didn't feel right because the trend this winter is to f us over at least excuse imaginable".

 

But, I say there is something more obvious than that about the flow construct that is problematic for a closer system.  The discussion from NCEP is entirely fine, but looking a bit outside the box;  well before any short wave dynamics enters the airs over the CONUS, the mid-level atmospheric wind velocity over the deep southeast is characterized by winds on the order of 60 to 80kts.  Quick arithmetic.  If the 500 mb short-wave and up-down through the column, has a local jet max of 100kts (a respectably large number), what happens when that short wave enters a domain where the wind is already moving along at 70 (mean) knots?  

 

Answer:  it is difficult to mechanize a cyclone with only 30kts of left over differential to induce the necessary restoring forces.  

 

I realize I have explained this several   ...hundred times over the years, but I think it doesn't yet fully register with people, because if they knew this (or at least consider it among the many other "hidden" aspects about the nature of the weather), it would assist in preventing folks from frustration.   Fact of the matter is, regardless of whatever model has shown whatever solution for the 4th of Feb, 2013, the flow over the deep southeast has been exceptionally quick on every run - the event was suspect.   

 

It doesn't have to be a death sentence to probability either.  When the flow is so "compressed",  it just means the timing has to be exquisitely perfect (but that's further complicated because timing is effected by stronger or weaker dynamic accuracy in handling by the models) for "threading the needle".   By nature, these ideal states are a rarer find.  

 

In even simpler terms, the flow is too stretched...  The ridge in the west, what is identifiable of one, is situated along or even west of the west coast of North America.  Because of that, there is a down wind teleconnector over the the Baja/old Mexico.  The flow around that negative counter-part to the "too far west" ridge, then perpetually vomits latent heat down wind into the Gulf/Caribbean/Florida/Bahamas region.  Meanwhile, the northern stream of the overall circulation, having little prerequisite connection to these southern features, comes on barreling down through the NP/GLs with it cold heights and what happens?   The gradient between the southern domain and the incurring northern domain gets extreme.  That, right there, is the problem and really has ear-marked this entire season.

 

You know, one thing I have been doing for muse as of late, is toggling back and forth between the 384 hour operational GFS, and the 0 hour, and almost every time (save this 12z run curiously enough), other than minor details that would be meaningless to the whole, the construct of the flow is identical.  Wow, now THAT is a model in a pattern lock. 

 

What is really a mystery for me is that this pattern has persisted well beyond the 45 day, more typical time span for a pattern bias.  It may be that there is something in the back ground that is persisting longer, where the 45 day period is being muted, but that's all speculative.  But we have seen an explosive sudden stratospheric warming event, and subsequent down-welling of the warming, and the AO is unperturbed.   Exceedingly rare to see that take place... Could still be an error?  Perhaps, but the blocking at high latitudes is remarkably underdone relative to the heavily correlated expectation.    The MJO may or may not have been more instrumental in orchestrating a cold pattern we endured up until the micro-break toward warm departures that has recently gone by the boards; it is interesting that during all that cold departures, zippo cyclogen.  If the MJO were culpable, it sure is hell did NOTHING for repositioning that western ridge from being too far west.  

 

Through it all... I keep coming back to the same conclusion:  the flow over the TV/OV is too fast, fast, fast ...and the reason is because the background, resting state of the pattern keeps returning to a western ridge that is too far west; thus, causing a split in the flow, where the southern component is dipping into Old Mexico, which then perpetually off loads heat into the low latitude ridge downwind.   Enters the northern stream over top, viola!  Too much gradient -->  too much wind speed -->  "shearly" enough, low cyclone numbers. 

 

I really came to this conclusion a week or two ago, and that is why I made that post about being done with this winter - it really wasn't for any emotive reasons.  It was entirely for connecting with these causes, and not really seeing how it will break down.   I have better things to do with my time than waste it in wait of something I have no control over.    I will end by saying this ... the last couple of ECMWF operational runs have brought an early spring, with an (at last) retreat N of the westerlies more unilaterally, and "bowling" season.  

[PWMan]

OT a bit but had to laugh last night when i saw a vehicle with PA plates that had FYA 21 on it

I saw a Maine plate this morning with PLZSNW. Was that you, Jayhawk, or Tamarack?  

[Damage In Tolland]

We are. The pattern sucks.

[Damage In Tolland]

If I were an employee at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and one of my responsibilities included public notifications I would be compelled (lest I do not value my job) to discuss this. The general appeal of having negatively tilted short wave dynamics careening off the Mid Atlantic - if NCEP went with the "no mention" and then things worked out the other way, I would have a tough time imagining a Meteorologist before a board of inquiry, having much success with the excuse: "It just didn't feel right because the trend this winter is to f us over at least excuse imaginable".

But, I say there is something more obvious than that about the flow construct that is problematic for a closer system. The discussion from NCEP is entirely fine, but looking a bit outside the box; well before any short wave dynamics enters the airs over the CONUS, the mid-level atmospheric wind velocity over the deep southeast is characterized by winds on the order of 60 to 80kts. Quick arithmetic. If the 500 mb short-wave and up-down through the column, has a local jet max of 100kts (a respectably large number), what happens when that short wave enters a domain where the wind is already moving along at 70 (mean) knots?

Answer: it is difficult to mechanize a cyclone with only 30kts of left over differential to induce the necessary restoring forces.

I realize I have explained this several ...hundred times over the years, but I think it doesn't yet fully register with people, because if they knew this (or at least consider it among the many other "hidden" aspects about the nature of the weather), it would assist in preventing folks from frustration. Fact of the matter is, regardless of whatever model has shown whatever solution for the 4th of Feb, 2013, the flow over the deep southeast has been exceptionally quick on every run.

It doesn't have to be a death sentence to probability either. When the flow is so "compressed", it just means the timing has to be exquisitely perfect (but that's further complicated because timing is effected by stronger or weaker dynamic accuracy in handling by the models) for "threading the needle". By nature, the ideal state is a rarer find.

In even simpler terms, the flow is too stretched... The ridge in the west, what is identifiable of one, is situated along or even west of the west coast of North America. Because of that, there is a down wind teleconnector over the the Baja/old Mexico. The flow around that negative counter-part to the "too far west" ridge, then perpetually vomits latent heat down wind into the Gulf/Caribbean/Florida/Bahamas region. Meanwhile, the northern stream of the overall circulation, having little prerequisite connection to these southern features, comes on barreling down through the NP/GLs with it cold heights and what happens? The gradient between the southern domain and the incurring northern domain gets extreme. That, right there, is the problem and really has ear-marked this entire season.

You know, one thing I have been doing for muse as of late, is toggling back and forth between the 384 hour operational GFS, and the 0 hour, and almost everyting (save this 12z run curiously enough), other than minor details that would be meaningless to the whole, the construct of the flow is identical. Wow, now THAT is a model in a pattern lock.

What is really a mystery for me is that this pattern has persisted well beyond the 45 day, more typical time span for a pattern bias. It may be that there is something in the back ground that is persisting longer, where the 45 day period is being muted, but that's all speculative. But we have seen an explosive sudden stratospheric warming event, and subsequent down-welling of the warming, and the AO is unperturbed. Exceedingly rare to so that take place... Could still be an error? Perhaps, but the blocking at high latitudes is remarkably underdone relative to the heavily correlated expectation. The MJO may or may not have been more instrumental in orchestrating a cold pattern we endured up until the micro-break toward warm departures that has recently gone by the boards; it is interesting that during all that cold departures, zippo cyclogen. If the MJO were culpable, it sure is hell did NOTHING for repositioning that western ridge from being too far west.

Through it all... I keep coming back to the same conclusion: the flow over the TV/OV is too fast, fast, fast ...and the reason is because the background, resting state of the pattern keeps returning to a western ridge that is too far west; thus, causing a split in the flow, where the southern component is dipping into Old Mexico, which then perpetually off loads heat into the low latitude ridge downwind.

How long did take you to type this manifesto?

[weathafella]

If I were an employee at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and one of my responsibilities included public notifications I would be compelled (lest I do not value my job) to discuss this.  The general appeal of having negatively tilted short wave dynamics careening off the Mid Atlantic  - if NCEP went with the "no mention" and then things worked out the other way, I would have a tough time imagining a Meteorologist before a board of inquiry, having much success with the excuse: "It just didn't feel right because the trend this winter is to f us over at least excuse imaginable".

 

But, I say there is something more obvious than that about the flow construct that is problematic for a closer system.  The discussion from NCEP is entirely fine, but looking a bit outside the box;  well before any short wave dynamics enters the airs over the CONUS, the mid-level atmospheric wind velocity over the deep southeast is characterized by winds on the order of 60 to 80kts.  Quick arithmetic.  If the 500 mb short-wave and up-down through the column, has a local jet max of 100kts (a respectably large number), what happens when that short wave enters a domain where the wind is already moving along at 70 (mean) knots?  

 

Answer:  it is difficult to mechanize a cyclone with only 30kts of left over differential to induce the necessary restoring forces.  

 

I realize I have explained this several   ...hundred times over the years, but I think it doesn't yet fully register with people, because if they knew this (or at least consider it among the many other "hidden" aspects about the nature of the weather), it would assist in preventing folks from frustration.   Fact of the matter is, regardless of whatever model has shown whatever solution for the 4th of Feb, 2013, the flow over the deep southeast has been exceptionally quick on every run - the event was suspect.   

 

It doesn't have to be a death sentence to probability either.  When the flow is so "compressed",  it just means the timing has to be exquisitely perfect (but that's further complicated because timing is effected by stronger or weaker dynamic accuracy in handling by the models) for "threading the needle".   By nature, these ideal states are a rarer find.  

 

In even simpler terms, the flow is too stretched...  The ridge in the west, what is identifiable of one, is situated along or even west of the west coast of North America.  Because of that, there is a down wind teleconnector over the the Baja/old Mexico.  The flow around that negative counter-part to the "too far west" ridge, then perpetually vomits latent heat down wind into the Gulf/Caribbean/Florida/Bahamas region.  Meanwhile, the northern stream of the overall circulation, having little prerequisite connection to these southern features, comes on barreling down through the NP/GLs with it cold heights and what happens?   The gradient between the southern domain and the incurring northern domain gets extreme.  That, right there, is the problem and really has ear-marked this entire season.

 

You know, one thing I have been doing for muse as of late, is toggling back and forth between the 384 hour operational GFS, and the 0 hour, and almost everyting (save this 12z run curiously enough), other than minor details that would be meaningless to the whole, the construct of the flow is identical.  Wow, now THAT is a model in a pattern lock. 

 

What is really a mystery for me is that this pattern has persisted well beyond the 45 day, more typical time span for a pattern bias.  It may be that there is something in the back ground that is persisting longer, where the 45 day period is being muted, but that's all speculative.  But we have seen an explosive sudden stratospheric warming event, and subsequent down-welling of the warming, and the AO is unperturbed.   Exceedingly rare to so that take place... Could still be an error?  Perhaps, but the blocking at high latitudes is remarkably underdone relative to the heavily correlated expectation.    The MJO may or may not have been more instrumental in orchestrating a cold pattern we endured up until the micro-break toward warm departures that has recently gone by the boards; it is interesting that during all that cold departures, zippo cyclogen.  If the MJO were culpable, it sure is hell did NOTHING for repositioning that western ridge from being too far west.  

 

Through it all... I keep coming back to the same conclusion:  the flow over the TV/OV is too fast, fast, fast ...and the reason is because the background, resting state of the pattern keeps returning to a western ridge that is too far west; thus, causing a split in the flow, where the southern component is dipping into Old Mexico, which then perpetually off loads heat into the low latitude ridge downwind.   

Somebody give this man a job!

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Ggem has no measurable at all

[MJO812]

Ggem has no measurable at all

 

Nothing here also. I'm only at 5.9 inches on the season. Places to my south in SNJ are receiving accumulating snow right now. Some places have picked up over 5 inches of snow from the clipper.

[Damage In Tolland]

Still looking at models....

[Baroclinic Zone]

Ggem has no measurable at all

 

Basically.  Has 0.1 -0.5mm on Metoecentre images.

[Baroclinic Zone]

12z UKMET is a bit more "robust" with precip.

[dryslot]

Tips post and 2 that quoted it took up a page...............

[Typhoon Tip]

How long did take you to type this manifesto?

 

15 minutes give or take... 

 

I type and think fast and furious...then have to spend 4 hours cleaning up the mess sometimes - hahaha.   

[dryslot]

I saw a Maine plate this morning with PLZSNW. Was that you, Jayhawk, or Tamarack?  

 

 

lol, Mine says NOSNOW

[forkyfork]

Still looking at models....

Close your eyes and wish real hard.

[CoastalWx]

Still looking at models....

 

Still living in fantasy world.

[ORH_wxman]

Uh... I never said 8.8" is unchartered territory... 

 

I'm not sure what the debate is.

You've listed winters that, like this one, were mostly terrible.

 

Of those with 8.8" as the cutoff, almost all end up < 25", and 8 of 18 ended up < 20":

1900-1901

1936-1937

1972-1973

1979-1980

1985-1986

1994-1995

2006-2007

2011-2012

 

And with the exception of 1899-1901, none of those 8.8"-by-Feb-1st winters were back to back.

 

My only point was that back to back ratters are rare, and a back to back winter < 20" total (which you can't deny is possible this year) would be unprecedented.

 

Sure anything is possible. We may even get a Feb 1969, but I'm not holding my breath lol

 

 

You made a statement along the lines of "I don't want to hear the 1980s crap" about bad stretches of winter and then added "Show me back to back winters of less than 15 inches"....implying that it is a foregone conclusion or at least very likely we end up with under 15" at KBOS.

 

I responded with I doubt we end up that low, then added later that it is Feb 1st to which you replied "and we have 8.8 inches"...again implying that this means we will finish with another absurdly low seasonal total.

 

My reponses were of the premise that it is far too early to yell historical back to back dead ratters and to add that we have had many winters where snowfall totals were this bad (or worse) to this point...an overwhelming majority of which did not finish below 15" and a large majority of which did not finish below 20". Not arguing that most of those season were bad, but most were far from the historically bad category.

 

At any rate I disgress, this is off topic for this thread...but I guess 90% of the posts in here are since most of it was whining this morning.

[CoastalWx]

7.5" Cape May. Unfooking real.

[dryslot]

12z UKMET is a bit more "robust" with precip.

 

 

Should we lock it or wait for the 18z run..................