dryslot Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah probably...but its reallythe one after today that is the biggest problem. It tracks over the northern lakes and into NNE prior to the 2/3 wave. Yeah, Thats no good as well, There are just to many in the flow, In a good year, Some of these would have been decent clippers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 They are getting/have gotten more than an inch I think. They had a nice clipper snow. I didn't read HPC reasoning....but I will when I get off a conf call. It is not that I dont' trust us on here, but HPC is good and I read them all the time. We'll see...hoppin on a call. And anyway....Dover snow more of less proves the point. Remember when srefs and nam had that for us a few days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The other problem has been with the southern jet, Basically when the GOM has been open for business its been for phasing over the lower ohio valley and those systems have turned into cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yeah, Thats no good as well, There are just to many in the flow, In a good year, Some of these would have been decent clippers Yeah...a lot of times these patterns will give nice advisory or even low end warning clipper/redevelopers....as Ryan mentioned earlier, we've had some lousy luck. The pattern itself is progressive, but it doesn't mean that these progressive patterns always favor garbage systems. They just don't favor KUs. We've had some horribly spaced shortwaves, which are not a symptom of the long wave pattern, they are chaos amongst it. They are not predictable beyond a few days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 That's why I pointed it out... but I'll believe the "it should snow based on climo" when I see it. We've been defying winter climo since February 2011... what's 2 more months. We are way over due for march snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ugh totally possible many of us won't see an inch from any storm in the next 10 days. I'm ready for spring this winter sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Oh, well I don't see it snowing less than 15" in BOS, and probably not 20". If we make it to March with under 15" then I'll start to get interested. Its Feb 1st. ...and we have 8.8" lol I know (and hope) the current pattern will probably change and a single bomb or even a couple nickle-dimers in late February or March can change a season, but we've been hearing the "climo" appeals for snow for a long, long time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm not saying every threat is hosed, it's just a very fast flow with zero time for amplification unless the location is just right. I don't have confidence in any threat for now until either the s/w is further north, or we get the flow to buckle. With the way the flow is, we'd want any amplification/phasing to occur over freakin' AR. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ugh totally possible many of us won't see an inch from any storm in the next 10 days. I'm ready for spring this winter sucks. I'm with ya. At the point of leaving winter behind and looking ahead to our next form of exciting weather.......o wait; that's winter again. Damn it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Chicago expecting 2-4 tonight. That's possibly ours Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Here is the HPC reasoning at 4:15am A MORE INTERESTING DAY IS IN STORE ON DAY 3...WHEN THE TWOSEPARATE SYSTEMS APPEAR TO MERGE OR AT LEAST ATTEMPT TO MERGE INTOA DEVELOPING NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST. THEUKMET AND NAM PCPN WERE WETTER ALONG THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLANDCOAST COMPARED TO THE CONSENSUS OF OTHER MODELS. THE UKMET INPARTICULAR WAS THE DEEPER AND FARTHEST W WITH THE LOW COMPARED TOTHE OTHER MODELS...THOUGH NOT BY MUCH AT 00Z AS THE SPREADDIMINISHES A BIT OVER PRIOR RUNS. THE 00Z ECMWF TRENDED CLOSER TOTHE GFS...AS BOTH OF THESE MODELS AVERAGE BTWN A TENTH UP TO AQUARTER INCH OF LIQUID PCPN ALONG THE NE COAST...WITH THE HIGHESTAMOUNTS OFFSHORE. HPC FOLLOWED SUIT WITH A LOW-MOD PROBABILITY OFGREATER THAN 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST (MODERATE) PROBS CONFINEDCLOSER TO THE COAST FROM RI TO ERN CT/MA. PROBABILITIES OF GREATERTHAN 8 INCHES...ALBEIT LOW (10%)...WERE NOTED OVER THIS SAMEAREA...GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE RAPID COASTAL CYCLOGENESISAND (THUS) A SFC LOW TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST. AS IT IS...MANY OFTHE 00Z MODELS INDICATED AN AVERAGE DEEPENING OF 12-15MB IN 12 HRS(FROM 12Z SUN TO 00Z MON) AS THE SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OFF THE MIDATLC COAST AND TRACKS NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 None of your glorious models gave Delaware or S Jersey 6 inches of snow this morning. Put the f'ing models away and forecast on pattern and instincts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 ...and we have 8.8" lol I know (and hope) the current pattern will probably change and a single bomb or even a couple nickle-dimers in late February or March can change a season, but we've been hearing the "climo" appeals for snow for a long, long time... There's many years that had that or less on this date. Its bad, but lets not pretend this is uncharted territory. I'll give you a list: 1899-1900 1900-1901 1925-1926 1927-1928 1931-1932 1936-1937 1941-1942 1943-1944 1957-1958 1968-1969 1972-1973 1974-1975 1979-1980 1985-1986 1991-1992 1994-1995 2006-2007 2011-2012 This was just using 8.8" as the cutoff...probably another half dozen years had between 8.8 and 10" at this point. Again, I'm not disagreeing its been a pretty terrible winter thus far for BOS...its just that it happens every now and then. Not unprecedented by any stretch. If it keeps up and they put up a foot for the whole season, then that is some histroic back to back futility, but we have a long ways to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 None of your glorious models gave Delaware or S Jersey 6 inches of snow this morning. Put the f'ing models away and forecast on pattern and instincts good idea. the pattern is very progressive and supports offshore development that clips E areas with light snows. most should be expecting very light snow showers or flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 There's many years that had that or less on this date. Its bad, but lets not pretend this is uncharted territory. I'll give you a list: 1899-1900 1900-1901 1925-1926 1927-1928 1931-1932 1936-1937 1941-1942 1943-1944 1957-1958 1968-1969 1972-1973 1974-1975 1979-1980 1985-1986 1991-1992 1994-1995 2006-2007 2011-2012 This was just using 8.8" as the cutoff...probably another half dozen years had between 8.8 and 10" at this point. this just re-inforces boston and cp of sne just isn't that snowy of a place, yes sometimes we get whacked and on ave we do a bit better. it is what it is. don't take this as a tobin jump just meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 good idea. the pattern is very progressive and supports offshore development that clips E areas with light snows. most should be expecting very light snow showers or flurries. Some areas should expect mixing as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Some areas should expect mixing as well i'm expecting mixing of flake size. probably a few small flakes and a few bigger flakes here and there. it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 good idea. the pattern is very progressive and supports offshore development that clips E areas with light snows. most should be expecting very light snow showers or flurries. yeah, anyone calling for more than a 1-2" has lost it at this point, things could change of course but not likely, hope we are all wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Some areas should expect mixing as well LOL, with 850s running at -10C. Using your -8C rule, the best snows will be SE MA and CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 this just re-inforces boston and cp of sne just isn't that snowy of a place, yes sometimes we get whacked and on ave we do a bit better. it is what it is. don't take this as a tobin jump just meh Depends on your definition fo snowy...BOS median snowfall is a bit over 40" per season...mean is about 44". That's pretty snowy for a big city. But if your definition of just a typical snowy place is Stow, VT or Rangely, ME, then its like Florida when it comes to snowfall in comparison to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 This winter honestly has sucked more than last...more c*ck teases, and it's been colder....at least last winter, I was resigned to it, and enjoyed the balmy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 i'm expecting mixing of flake size. probably a few small flakes and a few bigger flakes here and there. it is what it is. I could see western areas getting more than SE coast as coastal completely goes OTS. Food for thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 LOL, with 850s running at -10C. Using your -8C rule, the best snows will be SE MA and CC. i would welcome a mix at this point - would actually mean this thing is coming remotely close to the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I could see western areas getting more than SE coast as coastal completely goes OTS. Food for thought yeah that's possible. unfortunately the sucker zone would be central zones. food for thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 yeah that's possible. unfortunately the sucker zone would be central zones. food for thoughtIf I were you id plan on nothing and if you get a couple flurries consider it a W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 If I were you id plan on nothing and if you get a couple flurries consider it a W Winter burn FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Pickles, move to Stowe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 yeah that's possible. unfortunately the sucker zone would be central zones. food for thoughtIf I were you id plan on nothing and if you get a couple flurries consider it a W I think a couple inches is reasonable out here for now - But it could easily end up less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 There's many years that had that or less on this date. Its bad, but lets not pretend this is uncharted territory. I'll give you a list: 1899-1900 1900-1901 1925-1926 1927-1928 1931-1932 1936-1937 1941-1942 1943-1944 1957-1958 1968-1969 1972-1973 1974-1975 1979-1980 1985-1986 1991-1992 1994-1995 2006-2007 2011-2012 This was just using 8.8" as the cutoff...probably another half dozen years had between 8.8 and 10" at this point. Uh... I never said 8.8" is unchartered territory... I'm not sure what the debate is. You've listed winters that, like this one, were mostly terrible. Of those with 8.8" as the cutoff, almost all end up < 25", and 8 of 18 ended up < 20": 1900-1901 1936-1937 1972-1973 1979-1980 1985-1986 1994-1995 2006-2007 2011-2012 And with the exception of 1899-1901, none of those 8.8"-by-Feb-1st winters were back to back. My only point was that back to back ratters are rare, and a back to back winter < 20" total (which you can't deny is possible this year) would be unprecedented. Sure anything is possible. We may even get a Feb 1969, but I'm not holding my breath lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 i would welcome a mix at this point - would actually mean this thing is coming remotely close to the area. This whole system screams, MEH, to me. Too many cooks in the kitchen to get anything remotely well defined. I'd back off BOXs forecast by 1/2 based on what I see. Best chance for accumulating snows will be in SE MA and CC. General 1-3 with a T-1" for western areas of the CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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