ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Love the posts this morning. Entertaining if not therapeutic. I intentionally sat this one out. Not that anyone gives a s***. And not that I'm claiming to be any more prescient than anyone here. The "chutes and ladders" analogy is right on, and the multiple vortmaxes shooting down are overshooting and messing up a clean phase. But I'm not gonna delude myself: this winter has been terrible for Boston, and unlike last winter's ratter we don't even have spring-like weather to enjoy. And we won't get the futility record out of this. The first dusting-2" back in November was exciting. Doesn't do anything for me anymore. Give me a classic KU MECS or give me Spring. And don't give me the "1980s were terrible" as consolation... show me 2 back to back winters in Boston with < 15" of snow. That's never happened once for over 100 years. Looking at last night GFS ensembles, SNE Meltdown Vix will be shooting up. We're now looking at a Valentine's Day potential...? lol I doubt BOS finishes below 15" this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 And then we have the 12z GFS................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 LOL enjoy the cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 And then we have the 12z GFS................ ?? On phone tia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I doubt BOS finishes below 15" this winter. I would say I doubt they finish below 25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 And then we have the 12z GFS................ Does not look as compact at 5h as compared to 06z or 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 ?? On phone tia It sucks, Develops the low to late and east of 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 lol...Dusting here if that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I doubt BOS finishes below 15" this winter. Actually, looking back: 2 back to back winters with < 20" of snow in Boston has never happened... If we go based on climo averages, Boston should have roughly 13" in Feb, 7.5" in March... but I do think there is validity to a persistent pattern, whether it's a good one or a bad one. Unless we get better ridging out West and a better block, I'm not going to get optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Does not look as compact at 5h as compared to 06z or 00z. Yeah, May have to move to Eastport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Fast and Furious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Enjoy your snowy afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Its a BOMB Over Labrador Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Actually, looking back: 2 back to back winters with < 20" of snow in Boston has never happened... If we go based on climo averages, Boston should have roughly 13" in Feb, 7.5" in March... but I do think there is validity to a persistent pattern, whether it's a good one or a bad one. Unless we get better ridging out West and a better block, I'm not going to get optimistic. There's a good reason for that. Its tough to get. Even during crappy periods like the 1980s. They came close in 1979-1980 and 1980-1981...but still didn't do it. Same with '90-'91 and '91-'92...failed in '92 courtesy of 10.8" in March and 1.0" in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Dover DE had 6 inches this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Dover DE had 6 inches this morning Wow. NWS had 1-2" I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Enjoy the dusting! GFS below .1 for everyone except SE CT and SE MA. Oh well, off to Hunter on sunday, they should have snow, although not of the natrual variety. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Dover DE had 6 inches this morning That was a pretty massive bust over S NJ...a lot of spots got 6" actually. Not that it will help us any though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 People should take Scott's lead today. Realize we are hosed until the pattern changes. The Canadian models are kicking a$s when it comes to sensible weather. It's not even close really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Probably would have helped if today's s/w down south did not exist at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 That was a pretty massive bust over S NJ...a lot of spots got 6" actually. Not that it will help us any though. My 2/1 storm I just live in the state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 There's a good reason for that. Its tough to get. Even during crappy periods like the 1980s. They came close in 1979-1980 and 1980-1981...but still didn't do it. Same with '90-'91 and '91-'92...failed in '92 courtesy of 10.8" in March and 1.0" in April. That's why I pointed it out... but I'll believe the "it should snow based on climo" when I see it. We've been defying winter climo since February 2011... what's 2 more months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 People should take Scott's lead today. Realize we are hosed until the pattern changes. The Canadian models are kicking a$s when it comes to sensible weather. It's not even close really. I'm not saying every threat is hosed, it's just a very fast flow with zero time for amplification unless the location is just right. I don't have confidence in any threat for now until either the s/w is further north, or we get the flow to buckle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Probably would have helped if today's s/w down south did not exist at all Yeah probably...but its reallythe one after today that is the biggest problem. It tracks over the northern lakes and into NNE prior to the 2/3 wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 That was a pretty massive bust over S NJ...a lot of spots got 6" actually. Not that it will help us any though.You still thinking 1 or 2 inches Sunday? I don't see anything that says we can't grab that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 That's why I pointed it out... but I'll believe the "it should snow based on climo" when I see it. We've been defying winter climo since February 2011... what's 2 more months. Oh, well I don't see it snowing less than 15" in BOS, and probably not 20". If we make it to March with under 15" then I'll start to get interested. Its Feb 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Lol ....they're getting an inch or less. Give up on this. What reason is hpc giving? You'd take them over our own? They are getting/have gotten more than an inch I think. They had a nice clipper snow. I didn't read HPC reasoning....but I will when I get off a conf call. It is not that I dont' trust us on here, but HPC is good and I read them all the time. We'll see...hoppin on a call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm not saying every threat is hosed, it's just a very fast flow with zero time for amplification unless the location is just right. I don't have confidence in any threat for now until either the s/w is further north, or we get the flow to buckle. IMHO until the pattern changes Sunday is about the best we can hope for. No blocking no storms in this pattern. Bring on messy events that at least have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 You still thinking 1 or 2 inches Sunday? I don't see anything that says we can't grab that I do, lol. We could easily just end up with disorganized flurries or snow showers that don't give that much. We also may get more than that. I'd keep expectations pretty low though. The 12z suite thus far is fairly uninspiring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 This winter always finds a way to pork Boston. BOS sitting at 8.8 on 2/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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