Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 This thing is a mess on the NAM. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Its over NJ & LI soon to move north May work out this time we will see. Nam is okay for se ma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On the real weenie members we see, the main energy diving SE manages to catch up to the leading vortmax...that's the whole key in trying to get something more than a 1-3" event. Its a difficult task in this setup which is why people shouldn't set expectations to that type of solution. But for those who are still interested in the meteorology aspect of it, that is what you want to look for on the model guidance. When the two become close in proximity, then you end up with phasing which backs the flow in the upper levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Boy, that H5 setup on the NAM is awesome. This could be a monster storm if that lead shortwave weren't screwing the pooch. The baroclinic zone is too far east to get anything appreciable other than hoping for a Norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On the real weenie members we see, the main energy diving SE manages to catch up to the leading vortmax...that's the whole key in trying to get something more than a 1-3" event. Its a difficult task in this setup which is why people shouldn't set expectations to that type of solution. But for those who are still interested in the meteorology aspect of it, that is what you want to look for on the model guidance. When the two become close in proximity, then you end up with phasing which backs the flow in the upper levels. I just think the phasing is occurring too lat in the game for us. You can see the tug the E as they phase. They need to phase closer to the NC coast as opposed to off the NJ coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ugh totally possible many of us won't see an inch from any storm in the next 10 days. I'm ready for spring this winter sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ugh totally possible many of us won't see an inch from any storm in the next 10 days. I'm ready for spring this winter sucks. Stop whining....sun dimly visible while it snows is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ugh totally possible many of us won't see an inch from any storm in the next 10 days. I'm ready for spring this winter sucks. stop looking at models, it's all about pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Stop whining....sun dimly visible while it snows is awesome. Awesome. Cirrus and flurries. Sign me up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Awesome. Cirrus and flurries. Sign me up.can we get some whine with the cheese Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Ugh totally possible many of us won't see an inch from any storm in the next 10 days. I'm ready for spring this winter sucks. Anything is possible. But how likely do you think that is? I think very unlikely for most of SNE CNE. Models are all over the place. On the other hand I wouldn't complain about an early spring.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well hopefully we get cloudy and 27F instead...that's a whole lot better than 1.3" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 can we get some whine with the cheese Come Steve, roll with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Sometimes when I see Ryan join a thread in the morning it makes me cringe because you know it's gonna be something whiny and negative. Today was one of those days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Come Steve, roll with it.Sally hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well hopefully we get cloudy and 27F instead...that's a whole lot better than 1.3" of snow. I don't want 1.3" 3" is OK.. but still we need a nice 12-15" snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I don't want 1.3" 3" is OK.. but still we need a nice 12-15" snowfall Would you rather have cloudy and 30F? I would rather have 3 feet of snow than any of this weather...but I'll take what I can get when the options for what I'd rather have are not realistc. If we don't pull off a minor miracle and get 6-8" from this event, I'm not going around canceling the winter. We knew literally 3 or 4 days ago, this system didn't have a lot of room to amplify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Sometimes when I see Ryan join a thread in the morning it makes me cringe because you know it's gonna be something whiny and negative. Today wax one of those days Well I don't have unreasonable expectations. It's totally possibly we go through the next 10 days without even approaching advisory level snows. This winter just hasn't been good to us. A lot of bad luck when the pattern has been good and long stretches with an unfavorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well I don't have unreasonable expectations. It's totally possibly we go through the next 10 days without even approaching advisory level snows. This winter just hasn't been good to us. A lot of bad luck when the pattern has been good and long stretches with an unfavorable pattern. It blows, period. At least the interior had a few decent storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Would you rather have cloudy and 30F? I would rather have 3 feet of snow than any of this weather...but I'll take what I can get when the options for what I'd rather have are not realistc. If we don't pull off a minor miracle and get 6-8" from this event, I'm not going around canceling the winter. We knew literally 3 or 4 days ago, this system didn't have a lot of room to amplify. I never thought we would get more than 1-3" but it would be nice to get something better, that is all I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 0.2" per the NAM and it's likely exaggerated by a 1/3. Knock that down to 0.15" with 10:1 ratios, Woohoo. 1.5". La, la, lock it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm not totally sold on the NAM's handling of shortwaves. I think the second shortwave catches up to the first shortwave and we get phasing over NC instead of NJ or further northward. I think the lead shortwave slows down some and the arctic shortwave speeds up some so they phase. We still have 60 hours before anything is set in stone, anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Well I don't have unreasonable expectations. It's totally possibly we go through the next 10 days without even approaching advisory level snows. This winter just hasn't been good to us. A lot of bad luck when the pattern has been good and long stretches with an unfavorable pattern. Its been good to most of us in CT. I'm above avg in snowfall as is most of CT east of the river and even you in the valley have about 2 feet. We have nothing to whine or complain about . I had snowcover until Wednesday since Xmas Day. Has it been great? Certainly not, but its been good for many of us up to ORH. Farther east in Mass it hasn't so if they need to they can whine which they have.I'm looking forward to a couple fluffy inches on Sunday and we'll see how Tuesday shakes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Sally hour Lets meet, Toss a few back, And discuss what could have been...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Its been good to most of us in CT. I'm above avg in snowfall as is most of CT east of the river and even you in the valley have about 2 feet. We have nothing to whine or complain about . I had snowcover until Wednesday since Xmas Day. Has it been great? Certainly not, but its been good for many of us up to ORH. Farther east in Mass it hasn't so if they need to they can whine which they have. I'm looking forward to a course fluffy inches on Sunday and we'll see how Tuesday shakes out Winter could have been worse for sure but we've managed to nickel and dime our way to normal the most boring way possible. Virtually every "storm" has been a snoozer. While the early November and late December storms were OK... January was just horrendous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I'm not totally sold on the NAM's handling of shortwaves. I think the second shortwave catches up to the first shortwave and we get phasing over NC instead of NJ or further northward. I think the lead shortwave slows down some and the arctic shortwave speeds up some so they phase. We still have 60 hours before anything is set in stone, anything can happen. I would love this....but can you say why you think this, beyond the normal weenie fantasizing? I remember before you went to basic training you did some fantasizing about anafrontals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Winter could have been worse for sure but we've managed to nickel and dime our way to normal the most boring way possible. Virtually every "storm" has been a snoozer. While the early November and late December storms were OK... January was just horrendous.Better to have had and lost than to not have had at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Respectfully disagree for the most part. Yes on climo, I agree with you in certain micro events. But they issued at 2am. I find they often do meteorology not modelology for example in late Dec when many models were showing cutters they stayed with a coastal storm (one of the late Dec storms). When there is a threat they mention it. The biggest reason I have been cautious and holding back the last couple of weeks is that HPC never seemed excited about anything. Check out the traffic cams in my old town Dover DE this am. They are getting great clipper snow. Lol ....they're getting an inch or less. Give up on this. What reason is hpc giving? You'd take them over our own? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Love the posts this morning. Entertaining if not therapeutic. I intentionally sat this one out. Not that anyone gives a s***. And not that I'm claiming to be any more prescient than anyone here. The "chutes and ladders" analogy is right on, and the multiple vortmaxes shooting down are overshooting and messing up a clean phase. But I'm not gonna delude myself: this winter has been terrible for Boston, and unlike last winter's ratter we don't even have spring-like weather to enjoy. And we won't get the futility record out of this. The first dusting-2" back in November was exciting. Doesn't do anything for me anymore. Give me a classic KU MECS or give me Spring. And don't give me the "1980s were terrible" as consolation... show me 2 back to back winters in Boston with < 15" of snow. That's never happened once for over 100 years. Looking at last night GFS ensembles, SNE Meltdown Vix will be shooting up. We're now looking at a Valentine's Day potential...? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 back home in Shrewsbury I have 5.4" NOV 14.5" DEC 6.7" JAN 26.6 total (tied for last winters total) 1 warning event (9.4" 12/29) and 3 advisory events (5.2" 11/7 4.7" 12/26, an 3.3" 1/16). Below avg (should be at maybe 32-34", but not terrible.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.