MJO812 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Congrats Boston on the ARW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 These seem off, it has probably about .3" in QPF for my area yet only 60% chance of 1"? Must either be some weenie members messing with the mean or they calculate in different ways. Does anyone know how it calculates the probabilities? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 2:07 AM, skisheep said: These seem off, it has probably about .3" in QPF for my area yet only 60% chance of 1"? Must either be some weenie members messing with the mean or they calculate in different ways. Does anyone know how it calculates the probabilities? -skisheep You're micro managing here I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I don't say this much, but it's as close to useless as I can see regarding the SREFs at this stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 2:07 AM, skisheep said: These seem off, it has probably about .3" in QPF for my area yet only 60% chance of 1"? Must either be some weenie members messing with the mean or they calculate in different ways. Does anyone know how it calculates the probabilities? -skisheep 60% for 1" is really really really good for 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 2:09 AM, weathafella said: You're micro managing here I think. Not micromanaging, just curious about how it works. 60% for 1" is nice, and I would take 1" in a heartbeat. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 2:14 AM, weatherMA said: 60% for 1" is really really really good for 3 days out.Not so sure about that this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 2:14 AM, weatherMA said: 60% for 1" is really really really good for 3 days out. Not this year on the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 2:11 AM, CoastalWx said: I don't say this much, but it's as close to useless as I can see regarding the SREFs at this stage. ARW3 on ewall will go in my weenie map folder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 2:19 AM, dendrite said: ARW3 on ewall will go in my weenie map folder though. Given where this low develops, I expect some weenie members lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 2:17 AM, HubbDave said: Not so sure about that this year On 2/1/2013 at 2:18 AM, dendrite said: Not this year on the SREFs. Agree. It was more referring to the fact that skisheep thought 60% for an inch was low with .3 qpf. It isn't. But I agree the SREFs being good don't give much confidence this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 1, 2013 Author Share Posted February 1, 2013 This storm has really decent potential to give widespread advisory snows and some warning snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 2:19 AM, dendrite said: ARW3 on ewall will go in my weenie map folder though. oh yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 NAM is more negatively tilted this run. Probably doesn't mean much since the model sucks. Looks a little more GFSish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Nam....meh. Winter trends may be winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Inverted carp on the 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 1:43 AM, moneypitmike said: Think we're in need of a refresher??? Pathetic indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 boston to the seacoast of nh looks good On 2/1/2013 at 2:46 AM, ETauntonMA said: Inverted carp on the 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 2:33 AM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: This storm has really decent potential to give widespread advisory snows and some warning snows. Hits the Gulf Stream and goes boom? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What? Nobody buying the POS Nam, It needs more time on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looking at the SREF plumes most give 2-4", and a few extreme members with 15-20" skewed the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 3:02 AM, dryslot said: What? Nobody buying the POS Nam, It needs more time on this one Charlie Brown winter. Models may have hit their extreme left points, let's see what the rest of the suite has to offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 3:09 AM, Rollo Tomasi said: Charlie Brown winter. Models may have hit their extreme left points, let's see what the rest of the suite has to offer. But are we now into a regime change where the swing right is no longer the heavily favored default option? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 3:09 AM, Rollo Tomasi said: Charlie Brown winter. Models may have hit their extreme left points, let's see what the rest of the suite has to offer. Progressive flow never bodes well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Like where we are sitting here......just want a taste of the white...just a taste. Studying all the angles hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Yuck,Weak and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Gfs is a whiff. Lol. This winter sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 3:49 AM, dryslot said: Yuck, East We roll on...and on.....and in a few months we put it behind us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 3:51 AM, weathafella said: We roll on...and on.....and in a few months we put it behind us. Ggem probably wins again. Gfs will probably show 2/6 as a hit just to bust our balls for a day or two. Chutes and ladders pattern sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 On 2/1/2013 at 3:52 AM, Rollo Tomasi said: Ggem probably wins again. Gfs will probably show 2/6 as a hit just to bust our balls for a day or two. Chutes and ladders pattern sucks Awesome analogy. It may never snow again. By 12z tomorrow, we can call this dead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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