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February 2-3rd 2013 Clipper/Redeveloper


USCAPEWEATHERAF

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Holy crap just read the BOX discussion.  Not very optimistic....

 

THESE SYSTEMS COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR REGION
THAT THERE COLD BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...
SO INDICATING BEST CHANCES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND THE
BERKSHIRES. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN BOTH
EVENTS...AND SHOULD NOT REQUIRE SNOW HEADLINES SINCE THE STORMS
SHOULD BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE UNTIL THEY RAPIDLY HEAD OFFSHORE AND
WELL EAST OF OUR REGION.
 

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Holy crap just read the BOX discussion.  Not very optimistic....

 

THESE SYSTEMS COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR REGION

THAT THERE COLD BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...

SO INDICATING BEST CHANCES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND THE

BERKSHIRES. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN BOTH

EVENTS...AND SHOULD NOT REQUIRE SNOW HEADLINES SINCE THE STORMS

SHOULD BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE UNTIL THEY RAPIDLY HEAD OFFSHORE AND

WELL EAST OF OUR REGION.

 

 

That sounds like an ALB discussion... why would BOX talk about the mid-Hudson Valley?

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Holy crap just read the BOX discussion. Not very optimistic....

THESE SYSTEMS COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH OF OUR REGION

THAT THERE COLD BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW IN MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...

SO INDICATING BEST CHANCES IN THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...NW CT AND THE

BERKSHIRES. ANY PRECIPITATION WOULD BE RELATIVELY LIGHT IN BOTH

EVENTS...AND SHOULD NOT REQUIRE SNOW HEADLINES SINCE THE STORMS

SHOULD BE STARVED FOR MOISTURE UNTIL THEY RAPIDLY HEAD OFFSHORE AND

WELL EAST OF OUR REGION.

Albany

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Nice 6-9 hour upslope signal on some of these runs that blow the storm up a bit... like the last two of the GFS.

 

Composite surface low pressure for 25 upslope events... that low in the Maritimes sets up a perfect cross barrier wind flow for a time.  Only issue is the storm doesn't really stall or slow down too much.  A stall in the Maritimes would be preferred, lol.

 

Figure3.png

 

18z GFS...

 

gfs_namer_093_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

We will certainly miss the synoptic snows, but it looks like orographics would make up for that.

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it's the SREFS, but they have .25+ for entire area to well west of the CT/NY line, .5 from about the CT/RI border east. Advisory for all of CT and MA west of RI line, RI and Eastern MA see warning snows. Then again, it's the SREF's, so this is about as useful as me saying that I think it's going to snow because I said so.

 

-skisheep

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it's the SREFS, but they have .25+ for entire area to well west of the CT/NY line, .5 from about the CT/RI border east. Advisory for all of CT and MA west of RI line, RI and Eastern MA see warning snows. Then again, it's the SREF's, so this is about as useful as me saying that I think it's going to snow because I said so.

 

-skisheep

 

Wow! The mean looks awesome.  Must be some weenie members in there.

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Baggy isobars when it nears ACK suggest variable solutions.  You can notice the NW hook though, even in the mean.  

Yup, atleast for me right now, it's the general trend that is important, the actual solution can be figured out as we get closer. Nice trend though!

 

-skisheep

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