ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The main energy on the NAM definitely digs further south this run, however, the leading vortmax that crosses the southeast US is still shunting the main baroclinic zone offshore...so we end up with a fairly disorganized mess over us. The height falls are pretty impressive so we still end up with some advisory type snows, but the potential of the whole setup is certainly more than the result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice look on NAM. Widespread 3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The Nam will need more time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I think the whitening thats' taking place here this afternoon is going to be better than Sunday. 33.8/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I thought it looked great:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM looks like a potential NORLUN setting up over NYC area? .25+ for far southwest CT and drawing a line east of the RI/CT border up into MA, under .25 for everyone else as of 84 hours. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I think the whitening thats' taking place here this afternoon is going to be better than Sunday. 33.8/19 Those streamers are making it pretty far east off the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I thought it looked great:) Amen! -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Yeah NAM is almost there with a heavy precip producer. Let's see the track of the lows become refined before we say that its there to stay for certain. This is not going to be a big precip producer with immature midlevel lows as modeled. We need an earlier negative tilting of the trough to get those closed contours at 700mb and 850mb to our south. A few SREF and GEFS members have done this, but the vast majority are poorly alligned and or too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Congrats PWM. Good thing we had this torch, or I'd have an uphill battle trying to pile the new stuff on top of the imaginary 8-10 that I got from the last Norlun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The main energy on the NAM definitely digs further south this run, however, the leading vortmax that crosses the southeast US is still shunting the main baroclinic zone offshore...so we end up with a fairly disorganized mess over us. The height falls are pretty impressive so we still end up with some advisory type snows, but the potential of the whole setup is certainly more than the result. Perfectly stated. The s/w trough digging down from Canada has looked better each of the past two runs on the NAM, but a small change in the weak preceeding s/w nudges the baroclinic zone too far southeast and kind of spoilts the party. Jumble the features and try again next cycle and the result might be more favorable. Probably something like a 1/4 chance of warning snows somewhere in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 That lead upper level impulse is becoming better defined within the NAM guidance, could be a sign of things to come especially tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Well, the ensembles are sort of exciting for the next 8-10 days or so anyways. What about this threat? I'm guessing no talk means they looked no better or same as the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm liking GYX's take on this. Hot off the presses. CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING FOR THE SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHTHROUGH THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NEW GFS AND EUROGUIDANCE BOTH FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN ACLASSIC COASTAL LOW TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAYMORNING. WITH THE LOW OFF SHORE... THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING THERETURN OF SNOW TO THE REGION. WHILE THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHAPINGUP.. THE QPF AND THUS SNOWFALL STILL HAS A LARGE SPREAD. THE EUROIS MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH 3-5 IN OF SNOW INTO PWM WHILE THE GFSHAS MUCH MORE MOISTURE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARNING EVENT. ASWITH MOST COASTAL SYSTEMS, THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME STILL FOR ARIGHT TURN OUT TO SEA, AND WITH THE INITIATING SHORT WAVE JUSTBARELY ONSHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA, HAVE TRENDED THE FORECASTTOWARDS A NICE SNOW EVENT BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS AND WINDS SLIGHTLYFROM GFS GUIDANCE. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILLIN QUESTION, GALE WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS AS THEREIS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS TO REACH AT LEAST GALE, WITHSTORM FORCE WINDS STILL A CONSIDERATION AS WELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 What about this threat? I'm guessing no talk means they looked no better or same as the OP 2/5-6 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Perfectly stated. The s/w trough digging down from Canada has looked better each of the past two runs on the NAM, but a small change in the weak preceeding s/w nudges the baroclinic zone too far southeast and kind of spoilts the party. Jumble the features and try again next cycle and the result might be more favorable. Probably something like a 1/4 chance of warning snows somewhere in SNE. Yeah my hope is that the lead s/w that treks across the south either slows down to let the main energy catch it or it just weakens on future runs as to make it easier for the main northern stream energy to wrap the baroclinic zone to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 2/5-6 ? Nah for the threat being discussed in this thread (2/3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 no whitening here but weenie flakes every once in awhile I think the whitening thats' taking place here this afternoon is going to be better than Sunday. 33.8/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm liking GYX's take on this. Hot off the presses. CONFIDENCE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING FOR THE SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHTHROUGH THE TROUGH ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. NEW GFS AND EUROGUIDANCE BOTH FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY DEVELOPMENT RESULTING IN ACLASSIC COASTAL LOW TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF MAINE MONDAYMORNING. WITH THE LOW OFF SHORE... THIS SCENARIO WILL BRING THERETURN OF SNOW TO THE REGION. WHILE THE TRACK FORECAST IS SHAPINGUP.. THE QPF AND THUS SNOWFALL STILL HAS A LARGE SPREAD. THE EUROIS MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH 3-5 IN OF SNOW INTO PWM WHILE THE GFSHAS MUCH MORE MOISTURE WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A WARNING EVENT. ASWITH MOST COASTAL SYSTEMS, THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME STILL FOR ARIGHT TURN OUT TO SEA, AND WITH THE INITIATING SHORT WAVE JUSTBARELY ONSHORE INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA, HAVE TRENDED THE FORECASTTOWARDS A NICE SNOW EVENT BUT HAVE LOWERED POPS AND WINDS SLIGHTLYFROM GFS GUIDANCE. WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILLIN QUESTION, GALE WARNINGS WILL BE NEEDED FOR THE WATERS AS THEREIS NOW HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WINDS TO REACH AT LEAST GALE, WITHSTORM FORCE WINDS STILL A CONSIDERATION AS WELL. I don't know about a warning event for us and Dendrite though. Even on the gfs, while it has close to 1" qpf for dryslot, it has like .25 for us. The EC was less. Still time though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nah for the threat being discussed in this thread (2/3) Not far off from the op, just to the SE which is not a surprise from an ensemble, but wraps up very quick once it gets north of CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Not far off from the op, just to the SE which is not a surprise from an ensemble, but wraps up very quick once it gets north of CC. Cool thx. Glad the OP has some support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I don't about a warning event for us and Dendrite though. Even on the gfs, while it has close to 1" qpf for dryslot, it has like .25 for us. The EC was less. Still time though. It is a little early to worry too much about qpf when there is a trend like this perhaps. The trend just might be our friend and mightn't the deformation band get a bit further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Upton being conservative as usual: H5 TROF DIGS INTO THE NERN CONUS SAT NGT AND SUN. WEAK WAA AND MOISTLLVL FLOW OVERSPREAD THE CWA BEGINNING SAT NGT. TIME HEIGHTS SHOWBROAD LIFT AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR LGT SNOW TO DEVELOP ACROSSTHE CWA. AT THE SAME TIME...PACIFIC ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THETROF ATTEMPTS TO DEEPEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC BEFORE TRACKING NEWD ONSUN. 12Z GFS AND ECMWF RUNS ARE TRENDING THIS LOW CLOSER TO THECOAST...BUT NOT YET CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MDT SNOWACCUMS.FCST INDICATES LIKELY PCPN BEGINNING LATE SAT NGT AND LASTING INTOSUN. ATTM...THE LGT PCPN SCENARIO IS FAVORED. THIS INTRODUCES ACHANCE OF MIXING OR CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTS DURINGTHE DAY ON SUN AS THE BL WARMS. OTHERWISE PCPN ALL SNOW ELSEWHERE.IF THE LOW DOES DEEPEN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST...PCPN SHOULD BEALL SNOW AT THE COASTS AS COLDER AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE MOREAMPLIFIED SYSTEM. THIS WOULD ALSO INTRODUCE HEAVIER SNOWFALLTOTALS...ESPECIALLY ERN ZONES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Well at least we've got solid agreement now on widespread snow on Sunday. Starts in western areas pre dawn and spreads east during morning and snows for most into the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS adjusting for it's earlier lefthandness towards the consensus it seems through 70ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS adjusting for it's earlier lefthandness towards the consensus it seems through 70ish. Yeah... this isn't going to get hooked in as much, looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 ERN MA scraper, but a potent look. Nice hit for Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Looks like Kevin flirts with 0.1" of QPF... Congrats (again) ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Sunday shaping up to be a snowy day for all of SNE. Love it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 All snow lovers should move to the cape I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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