Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro comparison from 00z to 12z. Look at the difference in the Hudson Bay area. Trough is a lot sharper as well. 00z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'd favor the NCEP model group over the foreign model group at this time, especially with the foreign models making good trends today.Would you agree they tend to handle the Gulf Stream the best? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 what? Cape Cod, MA gets 1.25" of QPF from the GFS as of the 12z run, buy 00z tonight runs GFS will show 2.0" of QPF in the jackpot zone. Its slowly increasing QPF within the storm's comma head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Cape Cod, MA gets 1.25" of QPF from the GFS as of the 12z run, buy 00z tonight runs GFS will show 2.0" of QPF in the jackpot zone. Its slowly increasing QPF within the storm's comma head. ah. well nearly 90% of that is rain on the GFS so that would be a crappy jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm forecasting the models to show higher QPF as we get closer to the event, especially if the stronger solution verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 ah. well nearly 90% of that is rain on the GFS so that would be a crappy jackpot. I don't believe the GFS is right with the track, it will shift to the southeast a bit and get a bit more in line with the 12z EURO track. QPF will increase and intensity will as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm forecasting the models to show higher QPF as we get closer to the event, especially if the stronger solution verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 1.5" QPF of catpaws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 forecasting the models, wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 Doubt all you want, this will be a big snowstorm for New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I don't believe the GFS is right with the track, it will shift to the southeast a bit and get a bit more in line with the 12z EURO track. QPF will increase and intensity will as well. national guard is on standby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Well at least you spelled out your thoughts in a roundabout way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I don't believe the GFS is right with the track, it will shift to the southeast a bit and get a bit more in line with the 12z EURO track. QPF will increase and intensity will as well. Weenie tag this individual at once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Well at least you spelled out your thoughts in a roundabout way. true. that's better than some of us regulars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 true. that's better than some of us regulars. warning criteria snows for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Some funny posts...lol. Ot but the wind is whistling through the ac unit even though its covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Some funny posts...lol. Ot but the wind is whistling through the ac unit even though its covered. Some weenies should be tossed for sure, Heat......ftl around the AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice spring cutoff to our se on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 this could easily change, but as modeled right now the one thing we actually have for the first time with any of these systems is some semblance of an E or NE flow at 850 for a time. that would help out coastal peeps further up the coast and maybe a bit further inland as we would actually have a mechanism to transport some moisture westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Nice spring cutoff to our se on the euro. LOL - that's actually what i was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 this could easily change, but as modeled right now the one thing we actually have for the first time with any of these systems is some semblance of an E or NE flow at 850 for a time. that would help out coastal peeps further up the coast and maybe a bit further inland as we would actually have a mechanism to transport some moisture westward. Yeah, if we can make it through this next set of runs without that vanishing...1 or 2 runs with previous systems at least a model or two had some decent NE flow only to lose it...we should be in good shape. -- My concern with the GFS is it's overshot left with almost every one of these systems while the Euro and GGEM have tended to be too far right until the end. I think the last 2 even the Euro eventually overshot left for a run or two. Much stronger features this time which may be able to offset the flow which wants to move the trough east as it's digging. If I had to forecast it'd probably be along the lines of the Euro with an eye to a more easterly solution at 3 days out. Not sure how much I can buy the GFS with the GFS most left, Euro middle, UK a bit right of the Euro and the GGEM flat. Plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Bob is getting a blister from hitting delete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I don't believe the GFS is right with the track, it will shift to the southeast a bit and get a bit more in line with the 12z EURO track. QPF will increase and intensity will as well. Despite the fact that it is trending NW, and the Euro is trending NW, you expect it to now trend SE and give you a 2ft blizzard? Well let me just say that I expect it to continue to trend NW, stall for a bit over Ptown, move north into GOM slowly then rot out slowly to the NE. There will be an initial weenie band of waa snow that should lay down about 6 inches over Dendrite-land. Then the CCB will slowly rotate over me, stalling and rotting and leaving somewhere close to 2.5 of qpf with high ratios. This is what I expect to see at 0Z or maybe 12z. So there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 the euro gives me a norlun event, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 the euro gives me a norlun event, lol Good luck with that. All show and no go on those muthahs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 the euro gives me a norlun event, lol Congrats PWM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Congrats PWM. i've noticed the euro likes to dig these s/w's too far SE at this time range. we saw that in mid dec 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 15z SREFs bring 24h 1/4" mean QPF from about West Haven, CT NE to PVD and back NW towards ORH. Indicative, to me, of a late-bloomer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I know we joked with USCAPEWEENIEWX....but I will say that low pressure position is prime for explosive cyclogenesis...IIIFFFFFF we can get strong enough upper level support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 15z SREFs bring 24h 1/4" mean QPF from about West Haven, CT NE to PVD and back NW towards ORH. Indicative, to me, of a late-bloomer. At this range for 2/1 they were burying us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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