CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 virtually none. that run was OK for BOS but was mainly liquid SE of you. i'm not too worried about it going west though. No I think the risk is SE. This is a progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GGEM has almost nothing. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 I don't buy into the CMC nature of the low, if its too flat or progressive I don't buy into it when the NCEP models show otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 YupI had 11 inches of snow Dec 29. How about you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 No I think the risk is bridge jumpers. This is a shiat pattern fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 lol What....I think its a legit risk. Though the GFS coming in more and more amped and having it actually agree with some of the mesoscale models is starting to make me more optimistic. There isn't a lot of room, but there's enough ala 12/29 to get a little nuke to fire SE of us. Hopefully it keeps trending deeper to get a more defined commahead over the region. Lets get this to tomorrow night's runs and see where we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I don't buy into the CMC nature of the low, if its too flat or progressive I don't buy into it when the NCEP models show otherwise. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I don't buy into the CMC nature of the low, if its too flat or progressive I don't buy into it when the NCEP models show otherwise. cmc in general is amped, i think it's a red flag that it's not, but not sure what to make of this sunday deal. hopefully 12z euro looks more gfs than cmc like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Sure looks perty to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 cmc in general is amped, i think it's a red flag that it's not, but not sure what to make of this sunday deal. hopefully 12z euro looks more gfs than cmc like Red flag only if the euro isn't on board. Based on what was said about the ukmet it's in board. If euro looks good...... Ggem.... We toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 GEFS has >0.25 east of the CT River. Doesn't look like it gets the >0.50 anywhere into New England except near Eastport, ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 wow the gfs takes this thing almost due NNE from hatteras to eastport, maine. i know my understanding is limited, but is this a realistic track in such a progressive pattern. i would think not so much -S to N track motion, and greater risk of way out to sea....? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 How the EURO goes is going to be huge, if the EURO picks up on the trend, we can start to think about some snow. the EURO/GFS combo, even in this winter, is something that I would not want to bet against. However, if the EURO goes with the CMC and the GGEM, then we start to worry a bit. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 it's too bad the flow is so progressive, otherwise that thing would go quite far to restoring the fan's faith in winter - wow anything subtle showing up on the models that could slow it down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 wow the gfs takes this thing almost due NNE from hatteras to eastport, maine. i know my understanding is limited, but is this a realistic track in such a progressive pattern. i would think not so much -S to N track motion, and greater risk of way out to sea....? The trough is rapidly going very negative...the progressiveness of the pattern is what keeps the storm from riding up the CT River or Hudson River and instead it goes east of NE because the whole trough is also being pushed east at a decent clip. We need the trough to really wrap up negative to keep the storm close in this progressive pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 What....I think its a legit risk. Though the GFS coming in more and more amped and having it actually agree with some of the mesoscale models is starting to make me more optimistic. There isn't a lot of room, but there's enough ala 12/29 to get a little nuke to fire SE of us. Hopefully it keeps trending deeper to get a more defined commahead over the region. Lets get this to tomorrow night's runs and see where we are. That's not i was lol ing about, I just thought it was funny it had nothing at all, RGEM was basically the same to I think its legit as well, And if your on board thats even better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I don't buy into the CMC nature of the low, if its too flat or progressive I don't buy into it when the NCEP models show otherwise. This is probably premature, but I think if this continues to develop it should be named "The Gulf Stream Storm" in you honor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I had 11 inches of snow Dec 29. How about you? About 10 ....give or take. But this storm could look a lot like Dec 29 and miss you east. that's what we are collectively rooting for. I just got texted by Kev and Will and Phil - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 i would worry a bit more if the cmc and ggem weren't on the same page ahhaha - oh man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 anything subtle showing up on the models that could slow it down? Not really no. This thing is wholly reliant on it's own native jet power - if that careens down with more than the system blows up, cores and slows.. sure, but that happening is anyone's guess here. It would go against seasonal trend. Although, Dec 29 was weakling/outside flier and one almost had to go on faith and sure enough, the sucker's CCB head plowed almost due N to get much of the area. It's possible it's own native dynamics are strong sure, and that it comes up similarly but east of Tolland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Sad our best mets have zero faith inside 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 What....I think its a legit risk. Though the GFS coming in more and more amped and having it actually agree with some of the mesoscale models is starting to make me more optimistic. There isn't a lot of room, but there's enough ala 12/29 to get a little nuke to fire SE of us. Hopefully it keeps trending deeper to get a more defined commahead over the region. Lets get this to tomorrow night's runs and see where we are. I am not sure how telling this is (or worth much...) but having the GFS, with its progressive bias. Sometimes when a model overcomes its own bias it's wise to sit up and take notice. Have noted the "GONAPS" model be the most amped of all guidance on 126 hour panel, only to have the Euro join in ...meanwhile, we are posting over here how the Euro is signaling, when the GONADs should have gotten credit. Anyway, lots of time with just 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Sad our best mets have zero faith inside 84 hours That's what it has come down to, Can't trust the models outside of 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 That's what it has come down to, Can't trust the models outside of 48 hrs Bring back the NGM ,LFM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 We've had a lot of "movement" inside 84 hrs. With a general progressive pattern like we are in, models will always have changing solutions 3+ days out. I;m not saying no snow Sunday, but it isn't a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Eh, I don't think we should just say the GGEM had nothing and walk away from the solution - it did "trend" a bit more toward development, now actually having a low at all around Ge. Bank is a step in the more amplified direction. It's coming back with that deal for the 6th btw - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I do not know who maintains the Ewall site but cripes they still have NGM links. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Speaking of nogaps it's bigger for us vs CMC. Flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Somewhat similar to GFS actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The GEFS members are pretty meh. One super amped member and the op and the rest are lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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