CT Rain Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 9:54 PM, CoastalWx said: ERN MA scraper, but a potent look. Nice hit for Phil. The whole thing is just sort of east. The shortwave is initially too progressive for us back here but I'd be cautiously optimistic along the east coast of SNE. Probably a NBD storm back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Congrats Vim Toot!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 9:56 PM, CT Blizz said: Sunday shaping up to be a snowy day for all of SNE. Love it It is? I could see this pretty easily turning into a ACK special and leaving us sniffing cirrus after a fluffy inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 9:57 PM, CT Rain said: The whole thing is just sort of east. The shortwave is initially too progressive for us back here but I'd be cautiously optimistic along the east coast of SNE. Probably a NBD storm back this way. Yeah I mentioned earlier that progression is a concern. I do think this could have potential for the coast and Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The lead vort drops 1-4 on inland areas and the coast gets the coastal. Everyone is happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Bombing low moving due North, nice, East/SE 850 inflow over a cold dome, this easily could be much better than the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 That's so close from something a lot more. Dam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 9:57 PM, dryslot said: Congrats Vim Toot!! You do well too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The main energy dug even further this run versus 12z but it didn't quite go gangbusters with the negative tilt like 12z did. I don't think we're done seeing some weenie solutions with the amoutn of energy diving in and the trend of digging it deeper. But just because we see some more weenie solutions doesn't mean we are going to get them...this one is going to be difficult on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 10:00 PM, weatherMA said: You do well too. Yes, I would sign off on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 9:59 PM, Ginxy said: Bombing low moving due North, nice, East/SE 850 inflow over a cold dome, this easily could be much better than the GFS shows. On the flip side, it could easily not be as promising, and either blow up a little further east missing a lot of people or simply not at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 That's actually a nice looking commahead on the mid-levels right over E MA/BOS area...that would probably do very nicely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 18z gfs stamp of approval here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 10:02 PM, dryslot said: Yes, I would sign off on this I would like 50-100 miles west but I'll take what I can get. This would cover up the ground at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 9:54 PM, Zeus said: Yeah... this isn't going to get hooked in as much, looks like. The hook has been a figment of model imagination for 2 weeks with these systems. Always pops up on the GFS at least a run or two. This track seems very reasonable, I still worry about more east with the GGEM hanging out that way. This puts it in concert with the Euro, UK and even the JMA. Phil gets it good...i'm on the fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 10:03 PM, Zeus said: On the flip side, it could easily not be as promising, and either blow up a little further east missing a lot of people or simply not at all. Of course, would like to see this dive further south and bomb out quicker, might taint the SE coast though if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 10:07 PM, Ginxy said: Of course, would like to see this dive further south and bomb out quicker, might taint the SE coast though if it does. Yes, That would be the concern for folks along the coast if it goes to town further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 10:07 PM, Ginxy said: Of course, would like to see this dive further south and bomb out quicker, might taint the SE coast though if it does. The thing to remember is that even the 18z GFS is among the more NW and intense outliers of recent runs. The overall consensus right now is still considerably paltry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Wonder of noyes will have this one tracking over Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 10:03 PM, Zeus said: On the flip side, it could easily not be as promising, and either blow up a little further east missing a lot of people or simply not at all. Definitely have to watch for that, we've been here before but there seems to be pretty good agreement between the major models at this point. Jerry's NOGAPS ticked east at 18z too. Not sure if it qualifies for the Will "3 is a trend" rule as I haven't been watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Certainly room for adjustments west. Stronger west if weaker its east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I still lean further SE / less intense until later in the game. But either...like the look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 10:14 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: I still lean further SE / less intense until later in the game. But either...like the look do you stay snow on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 10:13 PM, Rollo Tomasi said: Definitely have to watch for that, we've been here before but there seems to be pretty good agreement between the major models at this point. Jerry's NOGAPS ticked east at 18z too. Not sure if it qualifies for the Will "3 is a trend" rule as I haven't been watching. No need for insults...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 10:17 PM, SouthCoastMA said: I still lean further SE / less intense until later in the game. But either...like the look do you stay snow on this run? On the GFS? Probably not...though I'm on my phone. Doesn't matter though as I think that ultimately won't be a concern unless this thing goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 10:21 PM, weathafella said: No need for insults...lol. Just saw you mention it earlier. I don't remember what Will's rule of thumb was...I think it needs to shift for 3 runs.... No insult intended...poor Nogaps is the Rodney Dangerfield of models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I only expect 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 31, 2013 Author Share Posted January 31, 2013 GFS shows this thing going nuts, but has little to no other model support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 10:33 PM, Ginxy said: I only expect 2-4. Yeah I'm just looking forward to an event to cover the grass again...and with any luck, maybe we pull off solid advisory or even low end warning, but my expectations are below that scenario. There's a lot of things that have to go right to get a bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 On 1/31/2013 at 10:33 PM, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: GFS shows this thing going nuts, but has little to no other model support. It needs to go nuts earlier if you want a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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