USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 12z NAM, 6z GFS, 0z GFS, 0z EURO, 00z CMC and 00z UKMET models all showed a potential clipper system impacting the region come Saturday night into Sunday morning. That is the way timing looks right now, but this along with the details could change with each passing run. NAM is most robust at hour 84 as it shows a well compact low pressure system just southeast of the BM track. The storm is so compact that even with a track just southeast of the BM will not bring any accumulating snows to SNE. Temperatures will be quite chilly in this time frame and mixing should not be of concern, even with the GFS showing some mixing as the low hits Nantucket, MA. Believe the NAM and GFS are too robust and are the northwest side of guidance while the rest are further east. 00z EURO is least robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Talk to me when it's inside 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Send it south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'm extremely disappointed, no mention of the GS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 If it's still here 12z thursday i'll start to get intrested. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 12z GFS has the s/w traverse the area but throws back little moisture into the area. Usually can't go wrong with a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 GFS has 2/3 as a little 1-3" event for most as the pretty potent vortmax tries to spawn a sfc low over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Lets get it further south around LI and we would be in biness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 The key is the trend, 6z GFS was so far out to sea it was hilarious, the 12z run was much farther west with the low intensifying, more so towards 70w instead of 65w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 We 'll take 1-4 to replenish the pack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 We 'll take 1-4 to replenish the pack What pack? After tomorrow I doubt you will have anymore than a few patches here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 29, 2013 Author Share Posted January 29, 2013 12z GFS was a little too far southeast for a nice hit. 1-3" seems best bet for now. GGEM showed the same scenario, perhaps more bullish then the 12z GFS. 12z EURO will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 What pack? After tomorrow I doubt you will have anymore than a few patches here and there. Hence the word "replace" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 i'll bet flurries to an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The GFS/Ukie/GGEM all are in pretty close agreement right now for a 1-3" type event...GGEM and especially Ukie might be a tad more bullish...perhaps minimum advisory snowfall. Still 5 days out, but kind of nice to see agreement from the globals. Of course, the Euro might come in with a coating again like last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 2-4 on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Euro def joined the party. A bit more bullish than GFS...kind of like a Ukie look almost. Pretty nice trend on the 12z suite today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 2-4 on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 2/3 should do okay. GEFS/UK/EURO all in decent agreement. GGEM not terribly far off either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 At least this one is getting inside of 5 days and starting to trend better. Still a lot of time though for it to turn to crap. Its a delicate setup with no blocking. Positives are a pretty high amplitude ridge out west in Canada and certainly no shortage of cold air in place ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 What's the euro like for back here for sunday? GFS has about .1 so 1-2" looks like the EURO is a little better? or is that only for eastern areas? -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Get a load of some of the 15z SREF members today for this. LOL-tastic solutions in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Get a load of some of the 15z SREF members today for this. LOL-tastic solutions in there. The SREFs are actually blowing up the system in front of the 2/3 clipper. SREFs are weenieing out over the 2/1 system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The SREFs are actually blowing up the system in front of the 2/3 clipper. SREFs are weenieing out over the 2/1 system. Oops. Even better than. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Euro ensembles pretty bullish for 2/3 similar to the OP run. Fairly good agreement for 5 days out on the global models. Been rare this season to see that. Still quite a ways to go though on this threat. If we can get to tomorrow night with it looking even a bit better, then I'll become a lot more interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The SREFs are actually blowing up the system in front of the 2/3 clipper. SREFs are weenieing out over the 2/1 system. I think this is what we don't want, its gonna F up the 2/3 system and hence no big system in SERN Canada to suppress the 2/6-2/7 one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 This could well turn into a warning event as we enjoy the Super Bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 and hence no big system in SERN Canada to suppress the 2/6-2/7 one. so your actually worried the big system for mid next week could cut if this happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 so your actually worried the big system for mid next week could cut if this happened? Yeah, because we'd likely have no system on 2/3 or a very weak one if the 2/1 "bombs", that one would be long out of the way by 2/5 or 2/6 which could cause limited confluence and hence a more north track for that system. I think the 2/3 system has more potential for SNE anyway than the 2/1 clipper does so everyone should probably be pulling for the 2/1 clipper to fall flat on its face, remember just last week a clipper that bombed off Delaware ruined the phasing of the next system and as a result we only had the light snowfall across E PA/NJ/NYC instead of the likelihood the northern/southern waves may have phased up if not for the predecessor flattening out the flow a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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