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February 2013 mid-long range disco thread


Fozz

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we are in a good cartopper pattern for the next 5-6 days....hopefully we get something to look at

 We are through about Tuesday or Wed.   I could see someone getting a half inch tonight though most of us will see less.  The weekend is trickier because of the boundary layer issues assuming we even get something. 

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Pretty much the same here too. At least they've never teased us with anything "decent" leading up. Any flakes will be nice and it one of them drops an inch then it's a smashing success in my book. 

 

 

Looks like around the 15th we build the western ridge again which probably will put us back in clipper land.  This week of cold week of warm back and forth is very nina-ish.  So is the crappy storm track.

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Yea, no kidding. 4 distinct chances. Well, at least on the gfs anyways. Pattern is ripe for it. 

 

I guess the thing to watch is how each one evolves way up north. If the the flow gets carved properly we could have one of these take a nice rounded turn below us with some weak waa. I know it's a low prob situation but each approaching little system won't be fully resolved until the departing one is figured out. Makes for entertaining model watching if nothing else. 

 

That's what chaps me.  We seemingly get the same path every, single time.  When we do get one to pass below us, it's too far and we get partly cloudy.  I don't know if it's this year, or climo, but it seems like every time I look at a model for one of these little clipper type deals, I see exactly the same solution.

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That's what chaps me.  We seemingly get the same path every, single time.  When we do get one to pass below us, it's too far and we get partly cloudy.  I don't know if it's this year, or climo, but it seems like every time I look at a model for one of these little clipper type deals, I see exactly the same solution.

I like the way your GFS looks in the longer range with a lot of moisture to our south and cold air just to our north. It seems that we haven't seen that this year.

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I looked at gfs nam. It seems to suggest weenie flakes for the area. Nice burst of fronto on nam banding page for metros on east to delmarva suggests maybe a steady band for a small area somewhere. Gets a nice boost just as it gets close to the water with a boost of omega. Id forecast t-1" with great possibility of no flakes at all. Best chance of flakes is over Delmarva.

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shows nothing (or sub .05" again) for the weekend but it looks better at 500 and the sfc than 0z  .. some potential there maybe... sfc low right across area or even south of dc

what's that definition of being crazy....doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result?

this pattern won't break until the end of FEB or early MAR and then it will likely be too warm

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what's that definition of being crazy....doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result?

this pattern won't break until the end of FEB or early MAR and then it will likely be too warm

 

it's gotta give at some point.

 

i've mostly surrendered.

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