Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 dosent have the GFS Ohio Valley/Lakes cutter? 12z has a lakes low but not really a cutter this might be good http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 12z has a lakes low but not really a cutter this might be good http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/12/gfs_namer_360_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif If it's not at 384 hours I'm not buying it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 True especially when looking at the pattern beyond the clipperfest, it's back to being a bad one. Almost time to wrap this baby up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 it's gotta give at some point. i've mostly surrendered. There are signs it is breaking down. For the first time all year the guidance is hinting at some STJ energy getting involved as well as a more favorable trough axis to allow something to develop past the Feb 10th period. I know its way out there but there are positive signs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 it's gotta give at some point. i've mostly surrendered. Every time I look, it seems like I'm looking at the same picture, over and over. Even in the same pattern, I'd think you'd still have some variation on what actually happens. But, trying to be optimistic, I'm still hoping to see a little tonight and Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 There are signs it is breaking down. For the first time all year the guidance is hinting at some STJ energy getting involved as well as a more favorable trough axis to allow something to develop past the Feb 10th period. I know its way out there but there are positive signs. God, I hope so. The only way it could be a worse trough axis is for it to have been a ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The PV displacement, albeit brief, occurs from the clipper parade 2/2-6. At the same time, the models are shooting in a couple of s/w in both streams and completely mishandling the entire situation. The meandering E PAC / CA low suddenly comes east for the 2/8-10 threat. This whole thing is a major timing headache and no solution is accurate (easy to say I know). Throw in that the models have no clue how to handle the Tropical Pacific headache and ...well you get the picture. The southern stream's influence will arrive in a few days and slowly get partially involved with each clipper system, esp. the last one on 2/5-6. At this point, we have to get lucky with southern stream wave timing and the PV displacement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The PV displacement, albeit brief, occurs from the clipper parade 2/2-6. At the same time, the models are shooting in a couple of s/w in both streams and completely mishandling the entire situation. The meandering E PAC / CA low suddenly comes east for the 2/8-10 threat. This whole thing is a major timing headache and no solution is accurate (easy to say I know). Throw in that the models have no clue how to handle the Tropical Pacific headache and ...well you get the picture. The southern stream's influence will arrive in a few days and slowly get partially involved with each clipper system, esp. the last one on 2/5-6. At this point, we have to get lucky with southern stream wave timing and the PV displacement. I'm less optimistic than you about the pattern though I do think the last clipper could give us our biggest snow of the year (that's not saying much) providing the vort digs as far south as the Euro is taking it. I agree that this will be a tough period for the models to handle but still wonder how quickly real southern stream energy gets to the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The over-warning of the NWS and the oversalting/sanding of local municipalities has to be related to the gov't peeps not wanting to tick-off the ruling class, ah-hem, politicians in our area. Its rather interesting you say that , as I agree with you and think things have gotten rather tempetous over the last 4 years and seem to be continuing. The ruling class(politicians) seems to have changed a bit . Maybe more sensitive . We havent had a good storm for a while. I saw snow plows recently with nothing forecast. It didnt make any sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 The PV displacement, albeit brief, occurs from the clipper parade 2/2-6. At the same time, the models are shooting in a couple of s/w in both streams and completely mishandling the entire situation. The meandering E PAC / CA low suddenly comes east for the 2/8-10 threat. This whole thing is a major timing headache and no solution is accurate (easy to say I know). Throw in that the models have no clue how to handle the Tropical Pacific headache and ...well you get the picture. The southern stream's influence will arrive in a few days and slowly get partially involved with each clipper system, esp. the last one on 2/5-6. At this point, we have to get lucky with southern stream wave timing and the PV displacement. so the 8-10 day threat is very much alive, although a headache to forecast. Very interesting. Guess someone else has a least a feeling for this possibility. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 NAM looks like someone might see an inch out of this thing tonight. I guess it doesn't hurt to see the glass half full. It does look a touch wetter. Doesn't mean it'll happen. Seems like they've been turning out a bit wetter than modeled. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm less optimistic than you about the pattern though I do think the last clipper could give us our biggest snow of the year (that's not saying much) providing the vort digs as far south as the Euro is taking it. I agree that this will be a tough period for the models to handle but still wonder how quickly real southern stream energy gets to the east coast. We both agree that, especially leading up to the threat window, the flow is progressive, warm and lacks North Atlantic blocking. The whole basis of this threat window (original call of 2/5-10 but it really doesn't matter at this point) was the timing of certain waves to allow for a PV displacement to time while southern stream influence gets involved. Initiatlly, the involvment will be minimal; but, it will gradually increase with each passing northern stream s/w. The lucky timing could come with either the 2/5-6 or 2/8-10 events. I think the modeling is having trouble because of the complicated forcing setup (head to philly subforum for more in the medium range thread) in the Tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jonjon Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I know this current pattern is frustrating for most of you, but its a perfect pattern for out here -- looks to be a very snowy week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Flurries here at the Steven F. Udvar-Hazy Center in Chantilly. Looks like a decent snow shower around Dulles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro still has the day 8.5-9 day storm that doesn't look half bad......as in, if it verified we might get 3-4" EDIT: on second thought, it's not for for sure snow event....meh again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 so the 8-10 day threat is very much alive, although a headache to forecast. Very interesting. Guess someone else has a least a feeling for this possibility. Thanks I say enjoy this period, starting tonight/tomorrow morning, because you never know if it will be your last wintry period of the season in DC-MD-VA corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Euro still has the day 8.5-9 day storm that doesn't look half bad......as in, if it verified we might get 3-4" EDIT: on second thought, it's not for for sure snow event....meh again huh? it has like .1" qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I say enjoy this period, starting tonight/tomorrow morning, because you never know if it will be your last wintry period of the season in DC-MD-VA corridor. In all seriousness, I have felt that way since Dec., 1973, when I pulled my first all-nighter....I kid you not my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 huh? it has like .1" qpf ughhh, Crappu-wx had the old run even though the first map was the 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 lol...it is January 31st And? It's not like this has been a normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 People post like there's some huge difference between a 2" winter at DCA vs. a 7" winter at DCA. There's really not. Both require not-good patterns for almost the entire 3.5 month snow season. Both are way below average and both would be remembered as a terrible winter. Pretty much everyone's thrown in the towel for a 10+" winter at DCA, but why would there be strong feelings at this point either way for 2" vs. 7"? Neither is anywhere close to average, and we certainly don't have the long-range forecasting ability to nail down terrible vs. a bit more terrible with 1.5 months to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 i split off the clipper talk since it's not really mid-long range http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39119-feb-1-clipper-obs-and-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 this weather is crazy. i went to lunch with a friend of mine today from india and he said it snowed where he's from the other day. i think he's from somewhere near hyderabad. after reading several news sources, it sounds like it may have been hail, but either way, they don't get it often. was it snow: http://www.deccanchronicle.com/130131/news-current-affairs/gallery/snowfall-andhra-pradesh or was it hail (looks like hail to me...love the title of this article): http://www.deccanchronicle.com/130131/news-current-affairs/article/chevella-andhra-pradesh-hails-snow in other news: i get the feeling if we can switch patterns, we might end up with a late season storm...just a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 No posts???? Looks like light snow chances every few days. Have no idea what the Euro showed. I assume nothing since there are no posts. LR at least had a stormy look to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looks like the late Mon-Wed time frame has some promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Looks like the late Mon-Wed time frame has some promise Agree euro has nice qpf just to our north. Plenty of time to get that south like clippers usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 euro looks interesting day 7-8 before warm up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 euro looks interesting day 7-8 before warm up Its ensemble mean is much different. Looks to be an outlier to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 CFS is looking colder for 2nd half of Feb...opposite from what alot of Mets predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 here is march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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