Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 All I've watched for all winter is getting enough of a W coast ridge to usher the clippers down our way. We have seen that happen some and I would like to think we will cash in on one with some STJ assistance. We sure have heard a lot of chatter from red tags around the board about how we are moving in that direction haven't we? But like Ian has said many times, the lr stuff is muddy at best. Too many moving parts to expect accuracy much over 50/50 for the most part. Some things are easier to see than others. I wouldn't rate the current progs as easy to see by any means. I wouldn't be surprised either way in Feb. A nice juicy ss low that actually dumps precip over cold air or a virtual shutout. You can't rule out either. Yea, the persistence thing goes a long ways but still. Every time I run the loops I see cold air nearby and/or getting pulled down by a departing low. The temps aren't the enemy as much as a quiet ss and neutral nao. We can overcome the neutral nao with good timing or a 50/50 but we can't overcome not having some juice work without the stj. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 00z NAM tries Friday morning for some SNSH... 8am to noon time period as the h5 energy goes right over us... looks like 0.05 to 0.10 QPF as temps are below freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 00z NAM tries Friday morning for some SNSH... 8am to noon time period as the h5 energy goes right over us... looks like 0.05 to 0.10 QPF as temps are below freezing Could be like Friday's totals. Might be a tight little band of snow where someone gets 1-1.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Maybe this rain tonight can break our no precip streak and translate that into snow later :| Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Still some snow chances showing up. Light events but nothing should be dismissed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 6z gfs would be nice on Sunday....if it were to happen...BL is a tad warm though. NAM is bone dry of course for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 0z euro has a storm on 2/8...far away of course and the set up is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 0z euro has a storm on 2/8...far away of course and the set up is meh jan 2005 type storm again. Someone in New England would see 40 inches. We would see 3. Ill take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 jan 2005 type storm again. Someone in New England would see 40 inches. We would see 3. Ill take it! I think we can sneak something in that period ..perhaps wishful thinking...I know Wes doesn't like the pattern quite yet, so he'll probably be right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 jan 2005 type storm again. Someone in New England would see 40 inches. We would see 3. Ill take it! I think we can sneak something in that period ..perhaps wishful thinking...I know Wes doesn't like the pattern quite yet, so he'll probably be right If we can get the split flow the GFS keeps advertising, we have a small window to get something even with a bad Atlantic...it might be into a rotting air mass, but that could be serviceable in early February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 we get GFS'ed overnight...1/2"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 we get GFS'ed overnight...1/2"? Beggars can't be choosy, i will take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 we get GFS'ed overnight...1/2"? Looks about right. Could be some lollies to .75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 we get GFS'ed overnight...1/2"? Moon angle and road temps will ensure a dusting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Moon angle and road temps will ensure a dusting Overnight tonight, some light snow is probable. Unfortunately will mostly fall when we are sleeping. See percentages below for immediate DC metro. - No Snow - 30% - Light snow/flurries fall but don't accumulate other than a very light coating on car tops, etc - 30% - Light snow, 1/4" to 1/2" - 25% - Light snow >1/2" - 15% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm long due for a car topper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Overnight tonight, some light snow is probable. Unfortunately will mostly fall when we are sleeping. You won't be up at 2am doing a Euro play by play for the flurries on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 You won't be up at 2am doing a Euro play by play for the flurries on Sunday? I don't think so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Cartopper is the new SECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 If we can get the split flow the GFS keeps advertising, we have a small window to get something even with a bad Atlantic...it might be into a rotting air mass, but that could be serviceable in early February Feb 2006 was into a stale marginal air mass with a crap atlantic, but I will take my chances with some STJ energy and a split flow over what we have had the last 2 years anyday. I can understand where the criticism saying that I only get excited when the stars align perfectly comes from but honestly, I can be interested in something that is only a marginal setup, sometimes they hit against the odds. The problem is the last two years we have not even had that. We have had non stop hostile conditions if you want to get a significant snowfall, even a 2-4" type event. While I am not in love with the pattern evolving, it is light years better then what we have had. The period from Feb 10-20th or so looks to have promise, especially if you look at the GEFS and what it is hinting at. Its not perfect, sure would love to see a -NAO pop up, but its a pattern that we can get something if we get a little luck. That is more then could be said for most of the last 2 years. I am interested in mid February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Sunday system is a little convoluted. We're in between lows again but who knows. Maybe something crazy happens. Not enthused but maybe we get hammered with an inch. Eastern mass is probably doing naked jumping jacks right now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Sunday system is a little convoluted. We're in between lows again but who knows. Maybe something crazy happens. Not enthused but maybe we get hammered with an inch. Eastern mass is probably doing naked jumping jacks right now though. I like seeing snow fall and have no expectations for these weekend events, so I will be pleased even if we see flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I like seeing snow fall and have no expectations for these weekend events, so I will be pleased even if we see flurries Pretty much the same here too. At least they've never teased us with anything "decent" leading up. Any flakes will be nice and it one of them drops an inch then it's a smashing success in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Pretty much the same here too. At least they've never teased us with anything "decent" leading up. Any flakes will be nice and it one of them drops an inch then it's a smashing success in my book. we are in a good cartopper pattern for the next 5-6 days....hopefully we get something to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 we are in a good cartopper pattern for the next 5-6 days....hopefully we get something to look at Yea, no kidding. 4 distinct chances. Well, at least on the gfs anyways. Pattern is ripe for it. I guess the thing to watch is how each one evolves way up north. If the the flow gets carved properly we could have one of these take a nice rounded turn below us with some weak waa. I know it's a low prob situation but each approaching little system won't be fully resolved until the departing one is figured out. Makes for entertaining model watching if nothing else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 we are in a good cartopper pattern for the next 5-6 days....hopefully we get something to look at We just gotta claw past last yr total at DCA for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 We just gotta claw past last yr total at DCA for now. That shouldnt be too hard though we might not get there over the next week...4" on the season won't exactly be a victory though....I dont think most people care about the total versus getting 1 or 2 proper storms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Yea, no kidding. 4 distinct chances. Well, at least on the gfs anyways. Pattern is ripe for it. I guess the thing to watch is how each one evolves way up north. If the the flow gets carved properly we could have one of these take a nice rounded turn below us with some weak waa. I know it's a low prob situation but each approaching little system won't be fully resolved until the departing one is figured out. Makes for entertaining model watching if nothing else. then the system on the 8th that keeps showing up is less than ideal unless the southern stream is stronger or we get a phase...rotting air mass....I know Wes doesn't like it and I don't think he has to change anything in his article...he will probably be right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 I'm long due for a car topper Don't you have to own a car for a car topper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 31, 2013 Share Posted January 31, 2013 Don't you have to own a car for a car topper? I live vicariously through other people's cars. Plus there are no trashcans super close anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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