February 2013 mid-long range disco thread

[clueless]

We need better temps. But what a difference a few hours make. Next weekend looks like no temp issues. We just need the right track.

[Ji]

ryan mahue tweeted that he worried about an ice storm for DC more than a snowstorm #sticktoatlantaclimatedummy

[NOVAForecaster]

Rates can overcome the temps. And don't forget how models always undermodel the CAD. Sure we may get a rain/mix at the start, but once the sun goes down and the heavier precip moves in, it's game time. Time to un-punt this one and start trying to figure out how much snow we actually get.

[Bob Chill]

after the Euro beat the GFS 56-3 last weekend...it was hard to believe the GFS would come back and beat the Euro. And it still hasnt happened yet.

Ive seen scenarios where every model had snow except for Euro and euro eventually won

I know you know this but just to point it out again, the euro and gfs are better at different things. We remember the euro more because it is better at the big ones. This system is probably better with the gfs.

But otoh, they really aren't all that far apart in their solutions. Subtle change in vort strength and dig = big changes down the line. The nam/gfs combo has been steadfast but it wouldn't take much or be a surprise if it ends up sheared and crappy.

If I has to bet even odds I would go with the gfs here but very nervous until late in the 4th.

[Ian]

this thread is long.. here's a v-day thread.: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39300-v-day-storm/

 

someone start a new LR thread.