yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 UKIE QPF at 72 overlayed with SLP. h5 energy is following GFS almost to a T in path and strength on the 00z UKIE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 big shift. ggem next? I would bet. I am in Reston this week, what airport code should I use to look at thermals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 How are the puntcancelforkers feeling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 big shift. ggem next? Who cares it is like the 6th best model out of the top 5. At least the Ukie has high verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 looks close for dc but this is probably one of the best runs of the gfs for many. peculiar. euro oh euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 700 looking pretty prime for some good rates through the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I had a snow depth of almost 60" on Feb 10th and they had to hire front loaders to move all the snow out of my street so cars could move.Going to need that. This was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I would bet. I am in Reston this week, what airport code should I use to look at thermals? KIAD you will cry if you look at KDCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 How are the puntcancelforkers feeling right now. We should hold off on the celebrations yet. THere are kids' college funds at stake here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Gfs has only had one bad run out of the last 10-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I would bet. I am in Reston this week, what airport code should I use to look at thermals? Use Dulles (IAD). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Is there a reason sbos_wx is posting about SNE snow in the MA model discussion thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Going to need that. This was yesterday. Nice picture, boy does that bring back some good memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That potential next "thing" looks better at h5 vs 18z. Probably will still end up being nothing tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 That potential next "thing" looks better at h5 vs 18z. Probably will still end up being nothing tho Boy you are greedy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 FWIW, UKIE at 72 is 34ish and -2c 850s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We should hold off on the celebrations yet. THere are kids' college funds at stake here. I'm not celebrating at all. This event currently is and always been fraught with problems. But I've seen like 10 great vort and 850 passes on the gfs in 3 days. I'm just a little sick of some of the prolific posts from the usual suspects. Maybe this run keeps them quiet for more than 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Best part of the run might be the max for DC is from 0-3z. .5" in three hours.. I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 AT least it shows something for PD3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 FWIW, UKIE at 72 is 34ish and -2c 850s So, that coupled with the maps you posted above, would translate to snow, verbatim? Seems that the heavy precip at that time would translate into snow? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 So, that coupled with the maps you posted above, would translate to snow, verbatim? Seems that the heavy precip at that time would translate into snow? Thanks. Kind of hard to surmise without soundings... but would be IMO a heavy wet snow... like really wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 pd3 might be back too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If the Euro shows a hit it will be time to start a thread for this one, Chill if you are up you deserve the honor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 looks like something is trying to form off the carolina coast over the weekend as well, with temps definitely supporting snow. turns into a fish storm for now, but that could be something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 For Yoda GGEM is coming further north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I know I'm tagged an eternal optimist and that's totally cool because it's pretty much true. But I'm not an idiot. I'm not baseless about it and I will wave the flag at the right time. But I will never punt multiple runs showing such a nice vort pass until it is off the table. Sure a better airmass would go a long way but it can snow in this setup if things evolve correctly even though it's marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think its hard to discount the GFS overall consistency here...I guess one could say that the EURO is being consistent too but Id say its wiggled around a little more...its nice to see other models (even if they are not the best) more so in the GFS camp though...if the EURO doesnt at least make a minute shift tonight, then I give up on model reading all together., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I know I'm tagged an eternal optimist and that's totally cool because it's pretty much true. But I'm not an idiot. I'm not baseless about it and I will wave the flag at the right time. But I will never punt multiple runs showing such a nice vort pass until it is off the table. Sure a better airmass would go a long way but it can snow in this setup if things evolve correctly even though it's marginal. after the Euro beat the GFS 56-3 last weekend...it was hard to believe the GFS would come back and beat the Euro. And it still hasnt happened yet. Ive seen scenarios where every model had snow except for Euro and euro eventually won Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 after the Euro beat the GFS 56-3 last weekend...it was hard to believe the GFS would come back and beat the Euro. And it still hasnt happened yet. Ive seen scenarios where every model had snow except for Euro and euro eventually won Well that's where we are right now, so let's hope this is not that time. I would be shocked if it did not come north tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks like a cold President's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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