PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Phew, tries to save itself later. Dumps on us. NAM certainly doesn't see this as a milquetoast OTS wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Golly then it pops a 1000mb low right off the Delmarva at 78 and the 850 line crashes from hours 78-81 you guys would be sitting pretty more than my neck of the woods as you can see it goes to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Vort is a bad pass. 850 low is a bad pass. Just a couple of miles between those features and the globals earlier today. I'll go on between ftw. Yeah, once again the best thing to take from the long range NAM is that it doesn't agree with the Euro. Otherwise, time to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 And of course it absolutely plasters southern new England again with a .75 QPF max right over them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM is a hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 LOL look at the sim radar at 84. Still, it wouldn't take much to get this much better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Phew, tries to save itself later. Dumps on us. NAM certainly doesn't see this as a milquetoast OTS wave. even though we'll try (me included), we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking that this will do anything other than nailing you know who if it's going to nail anyone I don't care who claims it to be a neutral ENSO, every event I've seen this year says it's a NINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nemo II at 84. DT will not be pleased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Can't hold a hat on nams tendency to over amp especially as an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You know, what Ian, Randy, and WxUSA should do is take every person who enters a long range thread with these winters over, winter sucks, punt this storm (long range mind you like punting on second down), etc. posts and restrict their privileges so that they can't post in the MA forum until April. Hey, simmer down. I was just giving an opinion of how this winter has been going and what I feel is coming (which I believe is the first time I ever did this). It's called discouragement. I don't think we need the thought police out patroling the posts because you don't like what someone posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Here's a question before I head off to bed. The NAM is warm with a crappy track, the GFS has a decent track but isn't as wet and still is not cold enough to snow. How do we get the cold air and precipitation? I don't know which set of models is correct. I'll leave that to people either smarter than me or more adventuresome. I will say no matter what the solution, I think snow is getting to be a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Can't hold a hat on nams tendency to over amp especially as an outlier well, it's not as bad as it used to be, but over amplifying is one thing, but this looks like a completely different system vs. any other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Here's a question before I head off to bed. The NAM is warm with a crappy track, the GFS has a decent track but isn't as wet and still is not cold enough to snow. How do we get the cold air and precipitation? I don't know which set of models is correct. I'll leave that to people either smarter than me or more adventuresome. I will say no matter what the solution, I think snow is getting to be a long shot. and that's probably an understatement once I saw the 12z dropping the northern stream south and the southern vort stopping to wait, the writing was on the wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Here's a question before I head off to bed. The NAM is warm with a crappy track, the GFS has a decent track but isn't as wet and still is not cold enough to snow. How do we get the cold air and precipitation? I don't know which set of models is correct. I'll leave that to people either smarter than me or more adventuresome. I will say no matter what the solution, I think snow is getting to be a long shot. My weenie guess is that the only shot is to get a strong sw to stay a bit more south than the NAM and get a low that bombs on the coast south of us. All of which seems difficult so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 now this is juicy from the hi-res NAM! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=00ℑ=nam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_060_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 My weenie guess is that the only shot is to get a strong sw to stay a bit more south than the NAM and get a low that bombs on the coast south of us. All of which seems difficult so far. That is the only way, we need dynamic cooling and if the upper low strengthens too soon the primary will still track to far north which will screw us. Anyway, time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 My weenie guess is that the only shot is to get a strong sw to stay a bit more south than the NAM and get a low that bombs on the coast south of us. All of which seems difficult so far. yep, one of those earlier GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Can anyone explain what we need to happen from the NAM's perspective to get this thing to be more south and then blow up as it hits the coast is it just the position of h5? Just trying to understand better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Never mind Usedtobe just answered it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 My weenie guess is that the only shot is to get a strong sw to stay a bit more south than the NAM and get a low that bombs on the coast south of us. All of which seems difficult so far. We could also use a high to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ha...I gave up on the NAM at 72 hours and then i come back and see it does some funny business after. Encouraging...no, not where we want it, but shows us soclose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM looks like cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ha...I gave up on the NAM at 72 hours and then i come back and see it does some funny business after. Encouraging...no, not where we want it, but shows us soclose. It seems there is no model agreement at 500mb. The NAM breaks off vorticity up the Appalachians to PA while the remainder of the system redevelops off NC all of which gives a weak negative tilt system with a warm nose aloft. This puts the GFS between the NAM and the EURO. I guess folks are staying up for GFS to keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It seems there is no model agreement at 500mb. The NAM breaks off vorticity up the Appalachians to PA while the remainder of the system redevelops off NC all of which gives a weak negative tilt system with a warm nose aloft. This puts the GFS between the NAM and the EURO. I guess folks are staying up for GFS to keep hope alive. yeah...I'm going to be all naughty and daring and stay up until 11:15 on a school night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yeah...I'm going to be all naughty and daring and stay up until 11:15 on a school night Lol- last night i made back to back 0z euros for the first time since Feb 2010. This is a weird hobby. Only way I do 3 in a row is to set an alarm. But am I that twisted? Maybe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Maybe Im a weenie, but the GFS looks like its going to be more amplified already at 42 hr to me....eh *weenie* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Maybe Im a weenie, but the GFS looks like its going to be more amplified already at 42 hr to me.... Yes, at 54 barely cuts off, much stronger than 18z, hopefully it translates better later on in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 00z GFS faster than the 18z GFS with the h5 vort strength and positioning... 00z is in extreme W TN and stronger at 60 when compared to 18z at 66 which is in W AR... looks like this should be a better run for us one would hope... and a very nice s/w in M TN at 66 moving ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks great at 72, I would bet at 75 it should be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well, GFS is definitely more sharp/amped than 18z. Still have crap thermals tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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