WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 More interesting reading material while we wait. ...SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER... PREFERENCE: 06Z GFS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEST STORM...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ENERGY CONCENTRATED BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF OUTPUT NOW MARK THE SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ALOFT...BUT 06Z AND 12Z GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HAS TRENDED SLOWER. THIS INCLUDES THE UKMET WHICH SUPPORTS OUR CHOICE OF THE 06Z GFS AS A MIDDLE GROUND. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE GREATEST RUN TO RUN CHANGE...AS IT HAD BEEN MARKING THE FAST END OF THE SPECTRUM AND THE 12Z RUN NOW JOINS THE NAM/SREF AT THE SLOW END. IT IS THE SURFACE WHERE THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER...IN PRODUCING A LOW TRACK THAT STAYS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. EVEN THE CANADIAN AND RECENT GFS RUNS...WHICH SUPPORT THE NAM IN OTHER RESPECTS...KEEP LOW PRESSURE CONFINED TO THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE GFS IS THOUGHT TO BE DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHAT PREMATURELY...WITH DEEPENING MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON DAY 4. BUT THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS BETTER REPRESENT THE OVERALL TREND WITH RESPECT TO TRACK. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THE UKMET SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF SHARES THIS TREND ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BEYOND DAY 3. IT IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT CLOSELY FIT OUR CONCEPTUAL MODEL...BUT IN COORDINATION WITH THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE PRESSURE DESK...WE FAVOR THE 06Z GFS SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH/EAST AND WITH DELAYED STRENGTHENING UNTIL REACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 More interesting reading material while we wait. ...SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER... PREFERENCE: 06Z GFS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEST STORM...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ENERGY CONCENTRATED BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF OUTPUT NOW MARK THE SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ALOFT...BUT 06Z AND 12Z GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HAS TRENDED SLOWER. THIS INCLUDES THE UKMET WHICH SUPPORTS OUR CHOICE OF THE 06Z GFS AS A MIDDLE GROUND. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE GREATEST RUN TO RUN CHANGE...AS IT HAD BEEN MARKING THE FAST END OF THE SPECTRUM AND THE 12Z RUN NOW JOINS THE NAM/SREF AT THE SLOW END. IT IS THE SURFACE WHERE THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER...IN PRODUCING A LOW TRACK THAT STAYS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. EVEN THE CANADIAN AND RECENT GFS RUNS...WHICH SUPPORT THE NAM IN OTHER RESPECTS...KEEP LOW PRESSURE CONFINED TO THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE GFS IS THOUGHT TO BE DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHAT PREMATURELY...WITH DEEPENING MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON DAY 4. BUT THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS BETTER REPRESENT THE OVERALL TREND WITH RESPECT TO TRACK. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THE UKMET SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF SHARES THIS TREND ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BEYOND DAY 3. IT IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT CLOSELY FIT OUR CONCEPTUAL MODEL...BUT IN COORDINATION WITH THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE PRESSURE DESK...WE FAVOR THE 06Z GFS SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH/EAST AND WITH DELAYED STRENGTHENING UNTIL REACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. Wonder what the preference is after seeing the sheared out POS on the 18z GFS, with torchy BL temps. Might be punting time on the VD storm after the 0z runs. Hard to get excited anyway when the best outcome is sloppy wet snow that is long gone by noon on Thursday. Just no cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Wonder what the preference is after seeing the sheared out POS on the 18z GFS, with torchy BL temps. Might be punting time on the VD storm after the 0z runs. Hard to get excited anyway when the best outcome is sloppy wet snow that is long gone by noon on Thursday. Just no cold air. My take is that the best in the business are unsure. So...... ......why are we so sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Never had too much hope pinned on the vday system. Too much against it needed to thread a needle. Still might but I'm still focused on the feb 18-28 period. But we need the northern jet to dig not just split flow. There are too many sw flying west to east across the lakes running interference. It's cutting off our cold air supply and inhibiting the development of the stj systems. Preventing rapid development of Ccb gotta hope as wavelengths shorten the pj digs more and we have a shot. The ghost signal for a storm is still there early next week. Just need something the trough can amp. Just our luck if finally the jet is just right and then suddenly no sw comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 My take is that the best in the business are unsure. So...... ......why are we so sure? I haven't read any AFDs from local offices that I would characterize as bullish on this potential. Only the GFS has had anything resembling an advisory criteria event(not considering the NAM as it is clearly an outlier), and it has backed off at 18z. By 0z we may not have a single model showing precip as far north as DC. It seems a low probability, low impact event, at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Have no idea of any implications, but the srefs are a little wetter with the precip pattern showing a more "up the coast" look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It does seem that it only looks better one to two weeks away for the MA after we get within a few days of our "best chance". Just not in the cards this year. Wonderdog punts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Have no idea of any implications, but the srefs are a little wetter with the precip pattern showing a more "up the coast" look. It can't be a bad thing. First thing we need is a stronger system. This has no true cold air to work with and won't. But it is mid feb and that's when these things can work out. Bug it has to be a dynamic system not a strung out suppressed pos. so first hope for a stronger system then worry about thermal structure second. Either way its a thread the needle but so was feb 2006. It can happen and punting 3+ days out us silly. So is giving up on the threat next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 See ya in Dec! You know, what Ian, Randy, and WxUSA should do is take every person who enters a long range thread with these winters over, winter sucks, punt this storm (long range mind you like punting on second down), etc. posts and restrict their privileges so that they can't post in the MA forum until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You know, what Ian, Randy, and WxUSA should do is take every person who enters a long range thread with these winters over, winter sucks, punt this storm (long range mind you like punting on second down), etc. posts and restrict their privileges so that they can't post in the MA forum until April. Is that even technologically possible? I haven't punted winter yet. I just am not oblivious to the fact we have about a month left, if that, to get something of substance. Heck, I think I got a sunburn today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 OK, we get it. You have a history of beating the negative drum until our eardrums bleed. There is enough angst around here already. LOL yeah and a lot of it is from you. I've seen your posts. No one here is more cynical, sarcastic, and hypocritical than you. You seriously come across like an ill tempered old fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 this is from joe bastardi on why he thinks gfs and euro will correct north.. take it for what its worth ..... Why GFS/ECMFW Should Correct North February 10 08:11 PM by Joe Bastardi The JMA, NAM are models that are the furthest north with the midweek system for the mid atlantic states. I believe the GFS and ECMWF will correct north, and here is why The GFS "problem" is feedback and trying to hand off energy to the northern branch and by doing so it loses the focus in the southern branch. When it does that there is no ridging in front of the system and so it simply moves more east than north. The model at 66 hours ( valid 12z Wed) is stringing the max out. This may be classic error in the model,for it is a global model and this is a relaitvely small scale system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM holding the southern energy back a little more than even 18z at 36hrs v. 42 hrs it's as if it is waiting for the northern energy to come down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM doesn't want to give up it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks like the NAMis holding firm. If anything looks to be maybe more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM doesn't want to give up it seems... cuts it off at 42 hrs and the vort misses its train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Was trying to say to all the it's over people that the people who actually do know aren't even ready to say something like that. I knew what u were saying. We all know the storm is problematic. Nobody ever said it was a lock. But it takes an intellectual genius to cancel it 3-4 days out because the 18z gfs looked worse and there is no verbatim solution that requires a shovel yet. I've changed my mind why I want this one. Not to break the streak. I want bump troll material so some people can see over and over again how bad of a poster they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 there are some differences up north around the Great Lakes and Canada too almost, and I say almost, looking to drop some colder air into the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 there are some differences up north around the Great Lakes and Canada too almost, and I say almost, looking to drop some colder air into the country we'll know in 3 hours when the next NAM panel comes out. Looks like it's not only going to hold serve, but probably be more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This whole setup makes me question everything. You have the NAM showing significant precip breaking out over OKC and as Mitchnick pointed out having the energy cutoff and then the GFS has this puny little ripple so to speak. Curious to see if the GFS changes course at Oz it was absolutely atrocious with Nemo never did catch on with that storm. This is a completely different setup however so I can't really compare apples to oranges lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You can't discount the nam through 48. If the front of the vort is sharp like that in 2 days then the euro can get off the throne and start cleaning the bathroom. Not saying anything is a lock but you guys know what I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You can't discount the nam through 48. If the front of the vort is sharp like that in 2 days then the euro can get off the throne and start cleaning the bathroom. Not saying anything is a lock but you guys know what I'm saying. Yeah, but I still don't trust the NAM, especially with the GFS not as enthused with that vort. Also, looks like the nrn stream vort is less defined on this run vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM looks pretty @ 54 hrs, wish it was the EURO showing this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks warmer to me at this stage compared to 18z at 57 but as Bob said earlier temps aren't the entire concern here it's getting the setup correct first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah, but I still don't trust the NAM, especially with the GFS not as enthused with that vort. Also, looks like the nrn stream vort is less defined on this run vs 18z. Such a subtle setup. We seem really prone to those this year. It can totally whiff. I just get ticked at bandwagon cancelers who can't read a model beyond surface and precip. Plus, I hate the trendy "no euro no go". If we were talking about an amped coastal I would be 3 in line behind zwyts and Ji to say that. There is far from a small chance here even if it's not pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Precip shield definitely weaker this run compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM is rain, plain and simple, if we get into qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM is rain, plain and simple, if we get into qpf Yeah, it's not pretty. But I'm hanging tight. Hope we can at least get another storm set up in the bank just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Very close to 18Z. Sucks for us but at least it isn't OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM is rain, plain and simple, if we get into qpf Vort is a bad pass. 850 low is a bad pass. Just a couple of miles between those features and the globals earlier today. I'll go on between ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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