Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 maybe this will humble Bob chill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Oh. Surface temps and low rates = bah humbug. don't forget that nice Mid-Feb sun angle.. .5" QPF could easily add up to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 exactly europe sucks they'll never let us get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 don't forget that nice Mid-Feb sun angle.. .5" QPF could easily add up to nothing with temps around freezing ratios would probably be maybe 8 to 1 if its a wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Not paying attention until the Euro gives us a storm. Scratch that... Not paying attention until everything gives us a storm because until now whatever model gave us nothing has been correct. How is severe season looking Ian? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 don't forget that nice Mid-Feb sun angle.. .5" QPF could easily add up to nothing it looks like this could be an overnight event though, if it happens...which might help...maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 00z GFS will officially bury this POS. Is the grave for PD3 being dug as we speak or is it showing signs of life? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 supposedly euro ensembles bullish on pdpunt3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowloverchris Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Still time for things to get its act together! As usual the ones always throwing the towel in early will be back for the new model runs. If you given up why come back, you already said its over why waste your time. but I do enjoy the comical relief. I aint saying it is going to happen or not but i am not giving in yet.Wait until next runs might be a differnt story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 00z GFS will officially bury this POS. Is the grave for PD3 being dug as we speak or is it showing signs of life? euro has been the one that has had it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 supposedly euro ensembles bullish on pdpunt3 looks better than the op but not sure if it's just because of smoothing. low develops a bit quicker so we might get more than a what looks like a frontal squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 looks better than the op but not sure if it's just because of smoothing. low develops a bit quicker so we might get more than a what looks like a frontal squall. At least there will be a legit trough with cold air, although the way it looks to evolve favors areas to the north. Still, I am more interested in this period and beyond than the Wed night chance of a couple inches of sloppy wet snow followed by two days with highs around 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSquid Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 nevermind, your missing my point. they are one of many tools mets use. the modeling shows them different possibilitys, its up to the met to use their knowlegde to examine the data, and use the best solution. so models are a tool I spent 20 years trying to teach my junior forecasters this very thing ... Only excuse I never tolerated was "the models blew it." Models can't forecast - they are mathematical representations of the atmosphere. The forecaster should use it with all available data, especially satellites and actually looking at the sky to make sure everything makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Anyone here look at the SREF? Sure, it has a low near the coast for the 14th. It also shows rather light precipitation and it shows 2 meter temperatures of 32 and below being confined to well north of the MD Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Phil the groundhog looks like genius for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 At least there will be a legit trough with cold air, although the way it looks to evolve favors areas to the north. Still, I am more interested in this period and beyond than the Wed night chance of a couple inches of sloppy wet snow followed by two days with highs around 50. How long can we say this though? I feel like all winter we are always looking ahead being "more interested in this period and beyond" in reference to PD3. We are kind of running out of time. The period needs to be now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 How long can we say this though? I feel like all winter we are always looking ahead being "more interested in this period and beyond" in reference to PD3. We are kind of running out of time. The period needs to be now. Lol but the NOW period sucks. A fairly zonal flow..and no cold air source. Favors weakish storms sliding off the coast, and no mechanism to feed cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Lol but the NOW period sucks. A fairly zonal flow..and no cold air source. Favors weakish storms sliding off the coast, and no mechanism to feed cold air in. actually a huge trough is coming for weekend, with very cold air so all hope is not lost yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 actually a huge trough is coming for weekend, with very cold air so all hope is not lost yet. Yes we were discussing that, if you read up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yes we were discussing that, if you read up a bit oops sry i see that now sry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 How long can we say this though? I feel like all winter we are always looking ahead being "more interested in this period and beyond" in reference to PD3. We are kind of running out of time. The period needs to be now. another month or so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 How long can we say this though? I feel like all winter we are always looking ahead being "more interested in this period and beyond" in reference to PD3. We are kind of running out of time. The period needs to be now. To quote Klaus Wolter, For now, the MEI remains as solidly neutral as it has ever been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Since early this morning I've been noticing the trend of the GFS to hold the ss sw back. It's 18z run has it about 400 miles or so back to the west at 06z Thurs vs its 6z run. Meanwhile the ns sw isn't slowing. I wonder if the NAM solution is really that preposterous considering that if that sw is held back enough the ns sw starts to interact with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Also, this might end up causing more model swings. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 101734 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EST SUN 10 FEBRUARY 2013 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-072 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49-- A. P10/ DROP 6 (45.0N 159.0W)/ 12/0000Z B NOAA9 08WSC TRACK10 C. 11/1900Z D. 13 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 12/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE A. P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 13/0000Z $$ JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 maybe this will humble Bob chill Says the man who 100% guaranteed PD3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I've never said this about anybody, but I don't see how you're allowed more than 5 posts per day. You've unleashed a few doozies today. I like SNO because I think last year he gave me more snow than the long range GFS and Euro combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 How long can we say this though? I feel like all winter we are always looking ahead being "more interested in this period and beyond" in reference to PD3. We are kind of running out of time. The period needs to be now. Lol but the NOW period sucks. A fairly zonal flow..and no cold air source. Favors weakish storms sliding off the coast, and no mechanism to feed cold air in. I'm starting to resign myself in a Ji-like fashion that spring is on our doorstep. Mentally, I'm ready to stick a fork in this sad, mostly snowless winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Also, this might end up causing more model swings. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 101734 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS You can always tell when a storm is probably on its last legs when people begin placing their hope on extra recons. For the life of me I can not remember a single time over many years where these extra missions made any significant difference. Not knocking you whatsoever winterwxlvr I am just wondering if maybe we should start considering calling the time of death on this puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You can always tell when a storm is probably on its last legs when people begin placing their hope on extra recons. For the life of me I can not remember a single time over many years where these extra missions made any significant difference. Not knocking you whatsoever winterwxlvr I am just wondering if maybe we should start considering calling the time of death on this puppy. I wasnt posting it for hope. In fact, I agree with you. Seems like every time this happens, the models trend worse for us. However, the fact remains that there's quite a bit of model disagreement, the ns sw is sitting out over the north pacific, and I don't think they would order a flight were it not deemed important. I'm just curious where the models go after this. Might not make a bit of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 18z gfs ensembles drier obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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