stormtracker Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Maybe somebody wants to make a "Modelology Thread" ??? - This is getting absurd. Every single model cycle we do this for like 2-4 hours My bad. You're right though, maybe we can make a thread for the model debate/discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 My bad. You're right though, maybe we can make a thread for the model debate/discussion. yeah then we'd argue about whether they are a tool or not lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 My bad. You're right though, maybe we can make a thread for the model debate/discussion. Not really directed at you - more at the people who are literally hyper-analyzing the models as tools every single cycle. You've only chimed in which I think is fine. Plus, I'm not the rule maker here It just seems like the same people want to bring up the exact same points at 00z, 06z, 12z, 18z - we come to the same conclusions about the models and then the same people are back like they completely forgot the previous discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS won't look like the NAM, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 nevermind, your missing my point. they are one of many tools mets use. the modeling shows them different possibilitys, its up to the met to use their knowlegde to examine the data, and use the best solution. so models are a tool no, i got your point. obviously i know you need skills to interpret large amounts of data, but without that data there'd be nothing to interpret. all i'm saying is that i would gladly take the nam over nothing at all. that's all i'm saying. i know past 48 hrs it's not as accurate as the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 entertaining and passed time at least. exactly! it's just discussion. i'm not flustered in anyway. i thought it was quite civil. on to the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS through 48 is no change from the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 no, i got your point. obviously i know you need skills to interpret large amounts of data, but without that data there'd be nothing to interpret. all i'm saying is that i would gladly take the nam over nothing at all. that's all i'm saying. i know past 48 hrs it's not as accurate as the others. oh ok.. its all good man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Hmmm.. GFS might be going in the direction of the Euro this run so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 here comes suppression...depression lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I didn't say it wasn't civil. But we literally have the same discussion multiple times per day it seems. one thing that never bothered me is the chitter chatter during a model thread. i never understood why others get upset about that, but that's another debate. personal attacks are the only thing i don't tolerate. anything else i can sift through, but that's just me. anyway, it's model run time so i'm gonna focus on that now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 we survive till 0z run I think but writing on the wall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The shortwave is more sheared like the Euro. The track of the shortwave is pretty decent, but we'd need to see it trend back to less sheared for a solid system in DC. Its still better than the Euro though. Hopefully the Euro comes back a little more amped tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 that northern stream sw chill wasn't worried about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 next there is no next. were about out of time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 0.25 to maybe 0.3 QPF... impressive... cartopper it is again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 looks like a cartopper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Still a decent event verbatim for DC. Colder than previous runs? More of the QPF might be snow than previous runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I like the orientation of the trough for the 2nd storm...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's ugly, but I'm gonna hang in there until tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 it is the 18z punt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This winter really makes me wonder how the heck parts of NYC and SNE were able to pull off a miracle HECS and we can't get accum snow worth sh*t down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's ugly, but I'm gonna hang in there until tomorrow night. yeah me too, maybe its just a hiccup on an off run, now if it continues that trend at 00z then maybe euro was onto something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This track seems ideal 72 hours out or so in my opinion. It gives room for slight shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Still a decent event verbatim for DC. Colder than previous runs? More of the QPF might be snow than previous runs? Oh. Surface temps and low rates = bah humbug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Still a decent event verbatim for DC. Colder than previous runs? More of the QPF might be snow than previous runs? that's how i see it. i'd actually rather be on the far northern side of this if it means cooler temps. maybe this is the solution the models settle in on for now. if so, i'd take that over the .05 qpf we had with the clippers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This winter really makes me wonder how the heck parts of NYC and SNE were able to pull off a miracle HECS and we can't get accum snow worth sh*t down here new england getting a huge snowstorm isnt that big of deal lol they always get it, im not mad about it, i just with theyd share lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 it is the 18z punt it 18z usually best run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This winter really makes me wonder how the heck parts of NYC and SNE were able to pull off a miracle HECS and we can't get accum snow worth sh*t down herePhasing is the bomb Get it? Hahahahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Tried to warn Chill Will this morning the writing was on the wall. Thanks for playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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