Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 pd3 might be back too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 If the Euro shows a hit it will be time to start a thread for this one, Chill if you are up you deserve the honor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 looks like something is trying to form off the carolina coast over the weekend as well, with temps definitely supporting snow. turns into a fish storm for now, but that could be something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 For Yoda GGEM is coming further north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I know I'm tagged an eternal optimist and that's totally cool because it's pretty much true. But I'm not an idiot. I'm not baseless about it and I will wave the flag at the right time. But I will never punt multiple runs showing such a nice vort pass until it is off the table. Sure a better airmass would go a long way but it can snow in this setup if things evolve correctly even though it's marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I think its hard to discount the GFS overall consistency here...I guess one could say that the EURO is being consistent too but Id say its wiggled around a little more...its nice to see other models (even if they are not the best) more so in the GFS camp though...if the EURO doesnt at least make a minute shift tonight, then I give up on model reading all together., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I know I'm tagged an eternal optimist and that's totally cool because it's pretty much true. But I'm not an idiot. I'm not baseless about it and I will wave the flag at the right time. But I will never punt multiple runs showing such a nice vort pass until it is off the table. Sure a better airmass would go a long way but it can snow in this setup if things evolve correctly even though it's marginal. after the Euro beat the GFS 56-3 last weekend...it was hard to believe the GFS would come back and beat the Euro. And it still hasnt happened yet. Ive seen scenarios where every model had snow except for Euro and euro eventually won Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 after the Euro beat the GFS 56-3 last weekend...it was hard to believe the GFS would come back and beat the Euro. And it still hasnt happened yet. Ive seen scenarios where every model had snow except for Euro and euro eventually won Well that's where we are right now, so let's hope this is not that time. I would be shocked if it did not come north tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks like a cold President's Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 We need better temps. But what a difference a few hours make. Next weekend looks like no temp issues. We just need the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 ryan mahue tweeted that he worried about an ice storm for DC more than a snowstorm #sticktoatlantaclimatedummy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Rates can overcome the temps. And don't forget how models always undermodel the CAD. Sure we may get a rain/mix at the start, but once the sun goes down and the heavier precip moves in, it's game time. Time to un-punt this one and start trying to figure out how much snow we actually get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 after the Euro beat the GFS 56-3 last weekend...it was hard to believe the GFS would come back and beat the Euro. And it still hasnt happened yet. Ive seen scenarios where every model had snow except for Euro and euro eventually won I know you know this but just to point it out again, the euro and gfs are better at different things. We remember the euro more because it is better at the big ones. This system is probably better with the gfs. But otoh, they really aren't all that far apart in their solutions. Subtle change in vort strength and dig = big changes down the line. The nam/gfs combo has been steadfast but it wouldn't take much or be a surprise if it ends up sheared and crappy. If I has to bet even odds I would go with the gfs here but very nervous until late in the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 this thread is long.. here's a v-day thread.: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39300-v-day-storm/ someone start a new LR thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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