Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 lol...or looks good at "next year". all kidding aside...the reality is that we're in a rut and it's hard to break out of ruts. it takes work. we're gonna need a bigtime pattern changer, and i'm not experienced enough to know when that will be. i do appreciate weather like this, though...if it's not gonna snow at least i don't have to be outside freezing my ass off. persistence really is a b**ch....hopefully we have a nino next winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 euro has 2 separate .05 stuff snow events in the 7 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 euro has a nice vort south of us this weekend....maybe that one can produce an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 euro has 2 separate .05 stuff snow events in the 7 day one is saturday night and the other is tuesday afternoon/evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I see some hope. After Feb 10, the GFS ensembles are petty wet and cold. Nothing like the OP mean. HM and Zwyts may be on to something but not until feb 10-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I see some hope. After Feb 10, the GFS ensembles are petty wet and cold. Nothing like the OP mean. HM and Zwyts may be on to something but not until feb 10-15 The euro run is a lot more promising than the GFS run...Lots of model mayhem...I wouldnt write off the 8-10th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 DT said something about next weekend, I believe the 10th, possibly a coastal. Showed above precip on graph up the coast Dont know exactly what graphs he was using but it showed precip to just inland including the main I-95 cities.Also , I think he said snow too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 The euro run is a lot more promising than the GFS run...Lots of model mayhem...I wouldnt write off the 8-10th I did a CWg article that got waylaid by comcast e-mail server problems and then the incoming line of convection. I don't like the 8th- 10th at all unless the mean 7 day pattern is really way off. The mean by the 9th is a warmer than normal pattern so you'd have to be extremely lucky to get anything. The southern stream getting going is nice if we can get a storm to go to our south. Initially, I don't think they will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 DT said something about next weekend, I believe the 10th, possibly a coastal. Showed above precip on graph up the coast Dont know exactly what graphs he was using but it showed precip to just inland including the main I-95 cities.Also , I think he said snow too. Now that is what I call a definitive forecast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I was just sitting in my den with my eyes closed listening to the wind gust outside. If someone told me that it was 74 degrees on January 30th or 27 degrees with a coastal low redeveloping at Cape Hatteras I would have guessed that the latter what's happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Now that is what I call a definitive forecast lol. DT said something about next weekend, I believe the 10th Well if you cant read next weekend, I dont know what to tell you.. I,m only trying to accurrately repeat what I heard and saw. He tied it to the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 DT said something about next weekend, I believe the 10th Well if you cant read next weekend, I dont know what to tell you.. I,m only trying to accurrately repeat what I heard and saw. He tied it to the MJO. Did you read what you wrote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I did a CWg article that got waylaid by comcast e-mail server problems and then the incoming line of convection. I don't like the 8th- 10th at all unless the mean 7 day pattern is really way off. The mean by the 9th is a warmer than normal pattern so you'd have to be extremely lucky to get anything. The southern stream getting going is nice if we can get a storm to go to our south. Initially, I don't think they will. I was thinking more about day 10....the euro doesnt look great but it isnt awful either and it has a storm and one behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Did you read what you wrote? DT said something about next weekend, I believe the 10th, possibly a coastal. Showed above precip on graph up the coast Dont know exactly what graphs he was using but it showed precip to just inland including the main I-95 cities.Also , I think he said snow too. that is what I wrote, I,m simply telling you what he said. and you replied Now that is what I call a definitive forecast lol. If you dont call that a definitive forecast with day, date precip type and type of storm , then I dont know what to tell you!! I,m a newbie but read and listen to all points of views To me that is definitive. If not you so be it!!I,m done posting. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 NAM, bless its heart, nams us on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 NAM, bless its heart, nams us on Friday Yeah, would be an inch ish for DC. Can't rule it out, but NAM nam-ing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If u get enough clippers, one is bound to be a mild surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 If u get enough clippers, one is bound to be a mild surprise. yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Yeah, would be an inch ish for DC. Can't rule it out, but NAM nam-ing. 850 vort is south just north of RIC and the 500 looks just north of EZF.....that seems to get us extreme flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 850 vort is south just north of RIC and the 500 looks just north of EZF.....that seems to get us extreme flurries I mean its not bad placement, all a matter of what we can muster up at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 NAM is the same that we've seen so far with the highest qpf to the south of DCA/BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 NAM, bless its heart, nams us on Friday Thursday 18z nam will .01 us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Nam will go from wettest to dryest model in 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Thursday 18z nam will .01 us Would be surprised if its that good...we can't score with good vort pass and nice 850s...your call on winter is really beginning to stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 Thursday 18z nam will .01 us St Mary's county got 4-6" from the last clipper...sometimes you just need to get under a band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I've seen a lot worse patterns than the 18z GFS at day 10...rex block/split flow so we get a southern stream and systems move across the south.....it is not an otherwise great pattern but it could deliver something small-medium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 All the usual caveats apply but this shows you how we can still get a storm with a mediocre Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 the 18z gfs run is a cwg dream run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I've seen a lot worse patterns than the 18z GFS at day 10...rex block/split flow so we get a southern stream and systems move across the south.....it is not an otherwise great pattern but it could deliver something small-medium I've never though the last couple lr runs were "terrible". Not showing snow is one thing but it's not like there isn't cold air available and the ridge west keeps re-establishing itself over and over. The pv isn't static so it flexes and wanes its influence in the ml's over and over. I've conceded that a nice -nao prob wasn't happening. All things considered we're looking pretty good. At least imo anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 30, 2013 Share Posted January 30, 2013 I've never though the last couple lr runs were "terrible". Not showing snow is one thing but it's not like there isn't cold air available and the ridge west keeps re-establishing itself over and over. The pv isn't static so it flexes and wanes its influence in the ml's over and over. I've conceded that a nice -nao prob wasn't happening. All things considered we're looking pretty good. At least imo anyways. All I've watched for all winter is getting enough of a W coast ridge to usher the clippers down our way. We have seen that happen some and I would like to think we will cash in on one with some STJ assistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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