WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Here's a question before I head off to bed. The NAM is warm with a crappy track, the GFS has a decent track but isn't as wet and still is not cold enough to snow. How do we get the cold air and precipitation? I don't know which set of models is correct. I'll leave that to people either smarter than me or more adventuresome. I will say no matter what the solution, I think snow is getting to be a long shot. My weenie guess is that the only shot is to get a strong sw to stay a bit more south than the NAM and get a low that bombs on the coast south of us. All of which seems difficult so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 now this is juicy from the hi-res NAM! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=00ℑ=nam-hires%2F00%2Fnam-hires_namer_060_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 My weenie guess is that the only shot is to get a strong sw to stay a bit more south than the NAM and get a low that bombs on the coast south of us. All of which seems difficult so far. That is the only way, we need dynamic cooling and if the upper low strengthens too soon the primary will still track to far north which will screw us. Anyway, time for bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 My weenie guess is that the only shot is to get a strong sw to stay a bit more south than the NAM and get a low that bombs on the coast south of us. All of which seems difficult so far. yep, one of those earlier GFS runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Can anyone explain what we need to happen from the NAM's perspective to get this thing to be more south and then blow up as it hits the coast is it just the position of h5? Just trying to understand better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Never mind Usedtobe just answered it for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 My weenie guess is that the only shot is to get a strong sw to stay a bit more south than the NAM and get a low that bombs on the coast south of us. All of which seems difficult so far. We could also use a high to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ha...I gave up on the NAM at 72 hours and then i come back and see it does some funny business after. Encouraging...no, not where we want it, but shows us soclose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM looks like cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Ha...I gave up on the NAM at 72 hours and then i come back and see it does some funny business after. Encouraging...no, not where we want it, but shows us soclose. It seems there is no model agreement at 500mb. The NAM breaks off vorticity up the Appalachians to PA while the remainder of the system redevelops off NC all of which gives a weak negative tilt system with a warm nose aloft. This puts the GFS between the NAM and the EURO. I guess folks are staying up for GFS to keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 yeah...I'm going to be all naughty and daring and stay up until 11:15 on a school night Lol- last night i made back to back 0z euros for the first time since Feb 2010. This is a weird hobby. Only way I do 3 in a row is to set an alarm. But am I that twisted? Maybe..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Maybe Im a weenie, but the GFS looks like its going to be more amplified already at 42 hr to me....eh *weenie* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Maybe Im a weenie, but the GFS looks like its going to be more amplified already at 42 hr to me.... Yes, at 54 barely cuts off, much stronger than 18z, hopefully it translates better later on in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 00z GFS faster than the 18z GFS with the h5 vort strength and positioning... 00z is in extreme W TN and stronger at 60 when compared to 18z at 66 which is in W AR... looks like this should be a better run for us one would hope... and a very nice s/w in M TN at 66 moving ENE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks great at 72, I would bet at 75 it should be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Well, GFS is definitely more sharp/amped than 18z. Still have crap thermals tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 its back!! euro has to fold tonight. chill wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Near perfect vort pass on h5 at 75... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 At75 it's a heavy rain to heavy snow type ordeal down this way anyway I think our guys up north are sitting pretty with this one if it'll just cooperate for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Goes boom at 75..marked improvement over 18z..looks like dare I say...the NAM (or trended toward it)....temps not ideal...but we got time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 we still all get thumped at the end...I think this is about as good a run as we can expect Perhaps a lil better in the thermal dept... but i think this is best we get in the atmospheric dept Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This should keep people tuned in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Holy eff, gfs isnt bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 we still all get thumped at the end...I think this is about as good a run as we can expect Indeed. It sharply moved into the amp'd NAM camp...so gotta give at least some credence to it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 nice hit for the JYO guys shocked that it showed this tonight after almost folding to euro at 18z. you usually don't see this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 we arent going to see a better run I dont think....my guess is 60/40 the euro folds but if it doesnt then I have no idea Should have listened to me this afternoon and you would not have had to stay up until 11:15 on a school night . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Pretty much a great h5 vort track as well from 72-81... unfortunately h85 goes right over us... move that SE 50-70 miles and we are in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 snow>model porn....I don't get a boner over model runs... Lol , crap now I have to stay up for the Euro and I have to wake up at 5:00 a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 thump is between midnight and 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 I heard the Ukie made a huge jump north, also has DC in the QPF bullseye .75-1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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