yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Where are you getting that? Cant find 12z. Meteocentre Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 UKMET 12z precip at 72: Like this is a FWIW kind of map? Totally sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 H5 looks decent enough on 12z UKIE at 72... looks to be a bit faster than the GFS in placement as UKIE is in W TN and GFS is in W AR. Northern energy on UKIE is weak and back in W ND/E MT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 H5 looks decent enough on 12z UKIE at 72... looks to be a bit faster than the GFS in placement as UKIE is in W TN and GFS is in W AR. Northern energy on UKIE is weak and back in W ND/E MT here's a weather post, in general glancing at the UKMET, and seeing the low track from h72 to h96 looks a bit north of last night's evolution. As many have been focusing on, I was studying the position of the northern stream potential kicker, and I agree with you, its definitely well to the north and wouldn't lower the heights along the east in a flattening out in front of the storm. Therefore, I could see the UK with a favorable track to just south of ORF, as the heights might be able to build just a little and there being enough precip on the western flank to provide an improved solution in comparison to 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The 12Z Nogaps is a little more amped up than it has been and now gets precip into DC Metro... The Euro will be north on the 12Z run then... The Nogaps has a severe supression bias outside of 3 days, so when that model comes a bit north with its solution, then others will soon follow. Also, the GGEM and Ukie are followers, not leaders Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Sterling discussion in case you missed it: .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... A POTENT UPPER JET WILL POWER THE MONDAY SYSTEM OFF THE COAST - ESPECIALLY THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM W/ UPPER ZONAL FLOW LEFT BEHIND. STILL A COLD UPPER LOW OFF TO OUR NORTH WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER TO MAKE ITS WAY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. THE LOW'S RELATIVE PROXIMITY TO OUR AREA WILL DRAG SOME COOLER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY...DESPITE DRY WX AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. THE OTHER LEFTOVER PORTION OF THE MONDAY STORM SYSTEM WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WITH A LARGE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...A LOT OF MOISTURE WILL GET SANDWICHED BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND THE FAST-MOVING ZONAL FLOW OVER THE OHIO VLY. A SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEK WILL THEN PICK THIS SOUTHEAST MOISTURE AND CARRY IT OFF THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS REMAINS THE POINT AT WHICH MED RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERGENT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN TERMS OF A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPMENT. THE EURO CONTINUES TO KEEP THE SYSTEM FROM MAKING ANY GREAT STRIDES IN TERMS OF THE INTENSIFYING OR AFFECTING OUR REGION...AND THE END OF THE CURRENT NAM RUN IS INDICATING AN EVEN MORE WEST SOLUTION THAN EITHER OF THE OTHER LARGE-SCALE MODELS. KEEPING A MED-RANGE POP FOR THIS TIME PERIOD FROM WED AFTN INTO EARLY THU...W/ LARGE RAIN/SNOW MIX SWATCH ACROSS THE SERN HALF OF THE AREA AND BETTER CHANCES FOR ALL SNOW ACROSS THE MTNS/SHEN VLY AND PORTIONS OF THE FOOTHILLS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TRENDS IN THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS TO SEE HOW THE SHORTWAVE WILL INTERACT W/ THE SOUTHEAST MOISTURE IN THE COMING DAYS. THU/FRI WILL BE THE HIGH PRESSURE DAYS GIVEN THE CURRENT LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AS CONDITIONS INCH BACK TOWARD NORMAL...BUT THEN A DEEP AND SHARP UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG DOWN ALL THE WAY TO THE SRN ATLC STATES POTENTIALLY BRINGING US ANOTHER COLD WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 if you don't have anything past 72 hrs. on the Ukie and wonder if precip will make it north, here's the map for you...72 hr. 700mb RH and winds usually a pretty good predictor http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=700&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest here's the 850 RH and winds too http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=rhum&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest it could go either way with the Ukie getting anything decent to us past 72 hrs 850 temps look OK on the Ukie too, but that may just be because it is surpressed http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=h72&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ukmet≤=850&va=strm&in=4&pl=ln&ft=h72&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro through 42 is digging the s stream s/w more than 0z and its past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro through 42 is digging the s stream s/w more than 0z and its past runs. it better do something because I just looked at the GFS text in 3-hr intervals for BWI and much of that is rain or mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 it better do something because I just looked at the GFS text in 3-hr intervals for BWI and much of that is rain or mix Not really looking into temps, but judging by what I see through 54 euro isn't gonna do it. Gotta see more. Edit to mention I do think it will be a trend in the right direction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Not really looking into temps, but judging by what I see through 54 euro isn't gonna do it. Gotta see more. Edit to mention I do think it will be a trend in the right direction though. Honestly...you are all over the place....let it run a bit before commenting...don't be a mind reader...or model predictor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Honestly...you are all over the place....let it run a bit before commenting...don't be a mind reader...or model predictor +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The euro looks horrible, and that doesn't take predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS is going to start caving soon. Was fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Bob, What's the house penalty for changing bets? Let's see...NAM is amped up. Shocker GFS is toasty Euro laughs at us. Going to stay positive. Tuesday 0z is make or break for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Euro this run looked more like GFS at h5, but its just not a good solution. Surface sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The euro looks horrible, and that doesn't take predicting. Thought it trended in the right direction...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 JMA looks like it has joined CAMP GFS through 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 A middle ground between all of the models could go in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Bob,What's the house penalty for changing bets?Let's see...NAM is amped up. ShockerGFS is toastyEuro laughs at us.Going to stay positive. Tuesday 0z is make or break for me. I'm out all afternoon with no interest on models. Euro didn't happen so we're good. Euro is a terrible model anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Thought it trended in the right direction...... he said "he thought it was heading in the right direction thru 54 hrs" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GFS usually dosnet lose storms at 72-84 hours out though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 While the EURO doesn't really show anything "good" it made a significant change from its 00z run which tells me not to put complete stock in it yet. Though, things aren't looking too great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 he said "he thought it was heading in the right direction thru 54 hrs" Let me clarify, because I'm speaking 2 different manners. at the surface, it is horrible. h5 looks better. one better, one worse, I guess h5 means more, overall you take what you want from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 While the EURO doesn't really show anything "good" it made a significant change from its 00z run which tells me not to put complete stock in it yet. Though, things aren't looking too great. What was the change? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 What was the change? it held a lot more energy back and H5 looks much better compared to 00z which was basically nada...I don't think it would take a big jump to get precip into DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 he said "he thought it was heading in the right direction thru 54 hrs" I was just joking....and making light of what leesburg said about letting it run.....back to watching people go overboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Pretty good beastly trough over the East Day 6-7 with energy hitting the Northwest. Could we get a snow threat around the 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 looks like we could miss out on the three or so threats before Feb 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 looks like we could miss out on the three or so threats before Feb 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.