Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM doesn't want to give up it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks like the NAMis holding firm. If anything looks to be maybe more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM doesn't want to give up it seems... cuts it off at 42 hrs and the vort misses its train Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Was trying to say to all the it's over people that the people who actually do know aren't even ready to say something like that. I knew what u were saying. We all know the storm is problematic. Nobody ever said it was a lock. But it takes an intellectual genius to cancel it 3-4 days out because the 18z gfs looked worse and there is no verbatim solution that requires a shovel yet. I've changed my mind why I want this one. Not to break the streak. I want bump troll material so some people can see over and over again how bad of a poster they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 there are some differences up north around the Great Lakes and Canada too almost, and I say almost, looking to drop some colder air into the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 there are some differences up north around the Great Lakes and Canada too almost, and I say almost, looking to drop some colder air into the country we'll know in 3 hours when the next NAM panel comes out. Looks like it's not only going to hold serve, but probably be more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 This whole setup makes me question everything. You have the NAM showing significant precip breaking out over OKC and as Mitchnick pointed out having the energy cutoff and then the GFS has this puny little ripple so to speak. Curious to see if the GFS changes course at Oz it was absolutely atrocious with Nemo never did catch on with that storm. This is a completely different setup however so I can't really compare apples to oranges lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You can't discount the nam through 48. If the front of the vort is sharp like that in 2 days then the euro can get off the throne and start cleaning the bathroom. Not saying anything is a lock but you guys know what I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You can't discount the nam through 48. If the front of the vort is sharp like that in 2 days then the euro can get off the throne and start cleaning the bathroom. Not saying anything is a lock but you guys know what I'm saying. Yeah, but I still don't trust the NAM, especially with the GFS not as enthused with that vort. Also, looks like the nrn stream vort is less defined on this run vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM looks pretty @ 54 hrs, wish it was the EURO showing this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Looks warmer to me at this stage compared to 18z at 57 but as Bob said earlier temps aren't the entire concern here it's getting the setup correct first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Yeah, but I still don't trust the NAM, especially with the GFS not as enthused with that vort. Also, looks like the nrn stream vort is less defined on this run vs 18z. Such a subtle setup. We seem really prone to those this year. It can totally whiff. I just get ticked at bandwagon cancelers who can't read a model beyond surface and precip. Plus, I hate the trendy "no euro no go". If we were talking about an amped coastal I would be 3 in line behind zwyts and Ji to say that. There is far from a small chance here even if it's not pretty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Precip shield definitely weaker this run compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM is rain, plain and simple, if we get into qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM is rain, plain and simple, if we get into qpf Yeah, it's not pretty. But I'm hanging tight. Hope we can at least get another storm set up in the bank just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Very close to 18Z. Sucks for us but at least it isn't OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM is rain, plain and simple, if we get into qpf Vort is a bad pass. 850 low is a bad pass. Just a couple of miles between those features and the globals earlier today. I'll go on between ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Phew, tries to save itself later. Dumps on us. NAM certainly doesn't see this as a milquetoast OTS wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Golly then it pops a 1000mb low right off the Delmarva at 78 and the 850 line crashes from hours 78-81 you guys would be sitting pretty more than my neck of the woods as you can see it goes to town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Vort is a bad pass. 850 low is a bad pass. Just a couple of miles between those features and the globals earlier today. I'll go on between ftw. Yeah, once again the best thing to take from the long range NAM is that it doesn't agree with the Euro. Otherwise, time to move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 And of course it absolutely plasters southern new England again with a .75 QPF max right over them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM is a hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 LOL look at the sim radar at 84. Still, it wouldn't take much to get this much better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Phew, tries to save itself later. Dumps on us. NAM certainly doesn't see this as a milquetoast OTS wave. even though we'll try (me included), we shouldn't fool ourselves into thinking that this will do anything other than nailing you know who if it's going to nail anyone I don't care who claims it to be a neutral ENSO, every event I've seen this year says it's a NINA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Nemo II at 84. DT will not be pleased Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Can't hold a hat on nams tendency to over amp especially as an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You know, what Ian, Randy, and WxUSA should do is take every person who enters a long range thread with these winters over, winter sucks, punt this storm (long range mind you like punting on second down), etc. posts and restrict their privileges so that they can't post in the MA forum until April. Hey, simmer down. I was just giving an opinion of how this winter has been going and what I feel is coming (which I believe is the first time I ever did this). It's called discouragement. I don't think we need the thought police out patroling the posts because you don't like what someone posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Here's a question before I head off to bed. The NAM is warm with a crappy track, the GFS has a decent track but isn't as wet and still is not cold enough to snow. How do we get the cold air and precipitation? I don't know which set of models is correct. I'll leave that to people either smarter than me or more adventuresome. I will say no matter what the solution, I think snow is getting to be a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Can't hold a hat on nams tendency to over amp especially as an outlier well, it's not as bad as it used to be, but over amplifying is one thing, but this looks like a completely different system vs. any other model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Here's a question before I head off to bed. The NAM is warm with a crappy track, the GFS has a decent track but isn't as wet and still is not cold enough to snow. How do we get the cold air and precipitation? I don't know which set of models is correct. I'll leave that to people either smarter than me or more adventuresome. I will say no matter what the solution, I think snow is getting to be a long shot. and that's probably an understatement once I saw the 12z dropping the northern stream south and the southern vort stopping to wait, the writing was on the wall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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