yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 93 h5 pretty strong over Norfolk VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Positives: Not suppressed, not OTS and wet. Negative: Temps, but no reason to worry about temps at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I bet the NE forum just started hopping. Bring on the thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 while everybody trisects temps I'm going out for the afternoon with this in my head. GFS has been a total statue for almost 48 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm worried about the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 we have been worrying about the surface, but the 850 0-line is the furthest north it's been on any GFS run nrt vort is pretty strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 while everybody trisects temps I'm going out for the afternoon with this in my head. GFS has been a total statue for almost 48 hours. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?app=core&module=attach§ion=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=89250]12zvort.JPG[/url] So if I'm understanding you right your saying forget the temps? If we have an h5 like that the 850's wont matter with that much lift in the atmosphere and it will make the 850's crash correct? Or am I totally off basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 we have been worrying about the surface, but the 850 0-line is the furthest north it's been on any GFS run nrt vort is pretty strong we're still 36+/- hours from having to freak out about temps. congrats ian, leesburg, mitch, wes, ji..... jackpot n trend @ 18z tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 we're still 36+/- hours from having to freak out about temps. congrats ian, leesburg, mitch, wes, ji..... jackpot n trend @ 18z tho gfsprecip1.JPG if it blows up just a bit earlier, baltimore will be talking about 1" qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 So if I'm understanding you right your saying forget the temps? If we have an h5 like that the 850's wont matter with that much lift in the atmosphere and it will make the 850's crash correct? Or am I totally off basis. Temp have always been a worry. I've said that for a couple days. But temp problems with this 850 / 500 track is exponentially easier on the nerves than overhead or to the w. That's a kiss of death. This setup in mid Feb is probably all snow for the cities n-w at least 75% of the time. Now isn't the time to freak. We can do that tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 850s may be around zero yes, but this is at night and some decent UVVs... should hold on to a very wet snow IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 how about we worry about warm when the euro actually shows a storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Positives: Not suppressed, not OTS and wet. No cold, there s a reason to worry about temps at this time. Fixed it for you. Having no high or even decent cold air to start with makes it tough to get snow with a weakening upper system. We need mega lifting. I'm not ready to punt but think our chances of breaking our 2 inch famine is not that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 how about we worry about warm when the euro actually shows a storm euro has blown this one. it sux. sorry. And when it caves I don't want to hear anymore euro is the best sh!t until we have an amped up miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Wes is throwing rocks because he lives s&e. just kiddin wes. It's a crawl walk run and fraught with problems. But still the best shot @ knocking down the streak all year (that's not saying much though.lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Wes is throwing rocks because he lives s&e. just kiddin wes. It's a crawl walk run and fraught with problems. But still the best shot @ knocking down the streak all year (that's not saying much though.lol). Can't argue with that! It sure is about the best shot we've had for a long time, but it's going to be tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think wes just said he like the 90 hr nam better than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think wes just said he like the 90 hr nam better than the gfs. Not with it's track unless the 850 low goes south of us. I don't thinnk it ipmpossible to gt a snowstorm out of this but think it is a uphill battle. especially for folks inside the bletway or east of I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Well it gets cold and dry after a midweek rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Not with it's track unless the 850 low goes south of us. I don't thinnk it ipmpossible to gt a snowstorm out of this but think it is a uphill battle. especially for folks inside the bletway or east of I95. Uphill is the only way we know how to go. 5 runs in a row of improving vort pass for us. We need more dig or God forbid it closes off...... I'm optimistic because these usually give us snow as shown but if it's the exception it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 We knew we were going to have temp issues this period so no surprise we are talking about a hail mary here. they are already talking about another hit for NE on tv. Sigh. Little Nemo redux? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Optimistic the 850 low will pass just south, south enough to make a snow event permissible. I'm gonna follow climo (no ian not average temp climo), in addition to vv's and lift being nice. Thing we should trend colder, its hard for a model to implement evap and dynamics into its temp analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Temps are of course a concern but there really is no sense digging into every possible outcome until 24-36 hours out. We've all seen these models look colder at that range. ANy event in this awful winter will be gross and terrible and highly flawed at best. Yeah, some folks in the area are going to get totally screwed with cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GGEM barely gets precip into VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 UKMET 12z precip at 72: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 GGEM barely gets precip into VA Where are you getting that? Cant find 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 72 UKIE SLP is located over ATL at 1005 mb... with the isobars kinking toward ILM... looks like a good track as it moves ENE I surmise as a crude ruler track usage suggests it would come off near HSE... wish we had an 84 panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Where are you getting that? Cant find 12z. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 72 UKIE SLP is located over ATL at 1005 mb... with the isobars kinking toward ILM... looks like a good track as it moves ENE I surmise as a crude ruler track usage suggests it would come off near HSE... wish we had an 84 panel Here's the 2M temps yoda at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Clueless the precip type maps come out early http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html I honestly don't even look at the GGEM it's useless. The RGEM, not so much (though it did miss the snowfall in CT for past storm) While this week's storm could be hit or miss, anyone not excited for the upcoming pattern is blind...NAO could tank, would be surprised if there is not at least 1 big storm till the end of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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