WxSquid Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 nevermind, your missing my point. they are one of many tools mets use. the modeling shows them different possibilitys, its up to the met to use their knowlegde to examine the data, and use the best solution. so models are a tool I spent 20 years trying to teach my junior forecasters this very thing ... Only excuse I never tolerated was "the models blew it." Models can't forecast - they are mathematical representations of the atmosphere. The forecaster should use it with all available data, especially satellites and actually looking at the sky to make sure everything makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Anyone here look at the SREF? Sure, it has a low near the coast for the 14th. It also shows rather light precipitation and it shows 2 meter temperatures of 32 and below being confined to well north of the MD Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Phil the groundhog looks like genius for the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 At least there will be a legit trough with cold air, although the way it looks to evolve favors areas to the north. Still, I am more interested in this period and beyond than the Wed night chance of a couple inches of sloppy wet snow followed by two days with highs around 50. How long can we say this though? I feel like all winter we are always looking ahead being "more interested in this period and beyond" in reference to PD3. We are kind of running out of time. The period needs to be now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 How long can we say this though? I feel like all winter we are always looking ahead being "more interested in this period and beyond" in reference to PD3. We are kind of running out of time. The period needs to be now. Lol but the NOW period sucks. A fairly zonal flow..and no cold air source. Favors weakish storms sliding off the coast, and no mechanism to feed cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Lol but the NOW period sucks. A fairly zonal flow..and no cold air source. Favors weakish storms sliding off the coast, and no mechanism to feed cold air in. actually a huge trough is coming for weekend, with very cold air so all hope is not lost yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 actually a huge trough is coming for weekend, with very cold air so all hope is not lost yet. Yes we were discussing that, if you read up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yes we were discussing that, if you read up a bit oops sry i see that now sry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 How long can we say this though? I feel like all winter we are always looking ahead being "more interested in this period and beyond" in reference to PD3. We are kind of running out of time. The period needs to be now. To quote Klaus Wolter, For now, the MEI remains as solidly neutral as it has ever been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Since early this morning I've been noticing the trend of the GFS to hold the ss sw back. It's 18z run has it about 400 miles or so back to the west at 06z Thurs vs its 6z run. Meanwhile the ns sw isn't slowing. I wonder if the NAM solution is really that preposterous considering that if that sw is held back enough the ns sw starts to interact with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Also, this might end up causing more model swings. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 101734 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1230 PM EST SUN 10 FEBRUARY 2013 SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 11/1100Z TO 12/1100Z FEBRUARY 2013 WSPOD NUMBER.....12-072 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE --NOAA 49-- A. P10/ DROP 6 (45.0N 159.0W)/ 12/0000Z B NOAA9 08WSC TRACK10 C. 11/1900Z D. 13 DROPS ON TRACK AS PUBLISHED E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 12/0600Z 2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE A. P23/ DROP 8 (47.0N 175.0W)/ 13/0000Z $$ JWP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 maybe this will humble Bob chill Says the man who 100% guaranteed PD3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I've never said this about anybody, but I don't see how you're allowed more than 5 posts per day. You've unleashed a few doozies today. I like SNO because I think last year he gave me more snow than the long range GFS and Euro combined Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 How long can we say this though? I feel like all winter we are always looking ahead being "more interested in this period and beyond" in reference to PD3. We are kind of running out of time. The period needs to be now. Lol but the NOW period sucks. A fairly zonal flow..and no cold air source. Favors weakish storms sliding off the coast, and no mechanism to feed cold air in. I'm starting to resign myself in a Ji-like fashion that spring is on our doorstep. Mentally, I'm ready to stick a fork in this sad, mostly snowless winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Also, this might end up causing more model swings. 000 NOUS42 KNHC 101734 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS You can always tell when a storm is probably on its last legs when people begin placing their hope on extra recons. For the life of me I can not remember a single time over many years where these extra missions made any significant difference. Not knocking you whatsoever winterwxlvr I am just wondering if maybe we should start considering calling the time of death on this puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You can always tell when a storm is probably on its last legs when people begin placing their hope on extra recons. For the life of me I can not remember a single time over many years where these extra missions made any significant difference. Not knocking you whatsoever winterwxlvr I am just wondering if maybe we should start considering calling the time of death on this puppy. I wasnt posting it for hope. In fact, I agree with you. Seems like every time this happens, the models trend worse for us. However, the fact remains that there's quite a bit of model disagreement, the ns sw is sitting out over the north pacific, and I don't think they would order a flight were it not deemed important. I'm just curious where the models go after this. Might not make a bit of difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 18z gfs ensembles drier obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 More interesting reading material while we wait. ...SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER... PREFERENCE: 06Z GFS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEST STORM...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ENERGY CONCENTRATED BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF OUTPUT NOW MARK THE SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ALOFT...BUT 06Z AND 12Z GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HAS TRENDED SLOWER. THIS INCLUDES THE UKMET WHICH SUPPORTS OUR CHOICE OF THE 06Z GFS AS A MIDDLE GROUND. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE GREATEST RUN TO RUN CHANGE...AS IT HAD BEEN MARKING THE FAST END OF THE SPECTRUM AND THE 12Z RUN NOW JOINS THE NAM/SREF AT THE SLOW END. IT IS THE SURFACE WHERE THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER...IN PRODUCING A LOW TRACK THAT STAYS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. EVEN THE CANADIAN AND RECENT GFS RUNS...WHICH SUPPORT THE NAM IN OTHER RESPECTS...KEEP LOW PRESSURE CONFINED TO THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE GFS IS THOUGHT TO BE DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHAT PREMATURELY...WITH DEEPENING MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON DAY 4. BUT THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS BETTER REPRESENT THE OVERALL TREND WITH RESPECT TO TRACK. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THE UKMET SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF SHARES THIS TREND ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BEYOND DAY 3. IT IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT CLOSELY FIT OUR CONCEPTUAL MODEL...BUT IN COORDINATION WITH THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE PRESSURE DESK...WE FAVOR THE 06Z GFS SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH/EAST AND WITH DELAYED STRENGTHENING UNTIL REACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 More interesting reading material while we wait. ...SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TIER... PREFERENCE: 06Z GFS CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE IN THE WAKE OF THE MIDWEST STORM...A LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ENERGY CONCENTRATED BACK TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST STATES. THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL SWING EASTWARD...INDUCING A SURFACE LOW THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS TRACK FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO THE CAROLINAS. THE NAM AND RELATED SREF OUTPUT NOW MARK THE SLOW EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ALOFT...BUT 06Z AND 12Z GUIDANCE CERTAINLY HAS TRENDED SLOWER. THIS INCLUDES THE UKMET WHICH SUPPORTS OUR CHOICE OF THE 06Z GFS AS A MIDDLE GROUND. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE GREATEST RUN TO RUN CHANGE...AS IT HAD BEEN MARKING THE FAST END OF THE SPECTRUM AND THE 12Z RUN NOW JOINS THE NAM/SREF AT THE SLOW END. IT IS THE SURFACE WHERE THE NAM IS A STRONG OUTLIER...IN PRODUCING A LOW TRACK THAT STAYS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MUCH FARTHER INLAND THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS. EVEN THE CANADIAN AND RECENT GFS RUNS...WHICH SUPPORT THE NAM IN OTHER RESPECTS...KEEP LOW PRESSURE CONFINED TO THE PRE-EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE GFS IS THOUGHT TO BE DEEPENING THE SURFACE LOW SOMEWHAT PREMATURELY...WITH DEEPENING MORE LIKELY TO WAIT UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON DAY 4. BUT THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS BETTER REPRESENT THE OVERALL TREND WITH RESPECT TO TRACK. OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS...THE UKMET SURFACE LOW TRACK HAS TRENDED CLOSER TO THE GFS AND GEFS MEAN...AND NOW THE 12Z ECMWF SHARES THIS TREND ALTHOUGH SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST BEYOND DAY 3. IT IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO FIND ANY OPERATIONAL MODELS THAT CLOSELY FIT OUR CONCEPTUAL MODEL...BUT IN COORDINATION WITH THE HPC MEDIUM RANGE PRESSURE DESK...WE FAVOR THE 06Z GFS SURFACE LOW TRACK WITH JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH/EAST AND WITH DELAYED STRENGTHENING UNTIL REACHING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. Wonder what the preference is after seeing the sheared out POS on the 18z GFS, with torchy BL temps. Might be punting time on the VD storm after the 0z runs. Hard to get excited anyway when the best outcome is sloppy wet snow that is long gone by noon on Thursday. Just no cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Wonder what the preference is after seeing the sheared out POS on the 18z GFS, with torchy BL temps. Might be punting time on the VD storm after the 0z runs. Hard to get excited anyway when the best outcome is sloppy wet snow that is long gone by noon on Thursday. Just no cold air. My take is that the best in the business are unsure. So...... ......why are we so sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Never had too much hope pinned on the vday system. Too much against it needed to thread a needle. Still might but I'm still focused on the feb 18-28 period. But we need the northern jet to dig not just split flow. There are too many sw flying west to east across the lakes running interference. It's cutting off our cold air supply and inhibiting the development of the stj systems. Preventing rapid development of Ccb gotta hope as wavelengths shorten the pj digs more and we have a shot. The ghost signal for a storm is still there early next week. Just need something the trough can amp. Just our luck if finally the jet is just right and then suddenly no sw comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 My take is that the best in the business are unsure. So...... ......why are we so sure? I haven't read any AFDs from local offices that I would characterize as bullish on this potential. Only the GFS has had anything resembling an advisory criteria event(not considering the NAM as it is clearly an outlier), and it has backed off at 18z. By 0z we may not have a single model showing precip as far north as DC. It seems a low probability, low impact event, at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Have no idea of any implications, but the srefs are a little wetter with the precip pattern showing a more "up the coast" look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 It does seem that it only looks better one to two weeks away for the MA after we get within a few days of our "best chance". Just not in the cards this year. Wonderdog punts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 Have no idea of any implications, but the srefs are a little wetter with the precip pattern showing a more "up the coast" look. It can't be a bad thing. First thing we need is a stronger system. This has no true cold air to work with and won't. But it is mid feb and that's when these things can work out. Bug it has to be a dynamic system not a strung out suppressed pos. so first hope for a stronger system then worry about thermal structure second. Either way its a thread the needle but so was feb 2006. It can happen and punting 3+ days out us silly. So is giving up on the threat next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 See ya in Dec! You know, what Ian, Randy, and WxUSA should do is take every person who enters a long range thread with these winters over, winter sucks, punt this storm (long range mind you like punting on second down), etc. posts and restrict their privileges so that they can't post in the MA forum until April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 You know, what Ian, Randy, and WxUSA should do is take every person who enters a long range thread with these winters over, winter sucks, punt this storm (long range mind you like punting on second down), etc. posts and restrict their privileges so that they can't post in the MA forum until April. Is that even technologically possible? I haven't punted winter yet. I just am not oblivious to the fact we have about a month left, if that, to get something of substance. Heck, I think I got a sunburn today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 OK, we get it. You have a history of beating the negative drum until our eardrums bleed. There is enough angst around here already. LOL yeah and a lot of it is from you. I've seen your posts. No one here is more cynical, sarcastic, and hypocritical than you. You seriously come across like an ill tempered old fart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 this is from joe bastardi on why he thinks gfs and euro will correct north.. take it for what its worth ..... Why GFS/ECMFW Should Correct North February 10 08:11 PM by Joe Bastardi The JMA, NAM are models that are the furthest north with the midweek system for the mid atlantic states. I believe the GFS and ECMWF will correct north, and here is why The GFS "problem" is feedback and trying to hand off energy to the northern branch and by doing so it loses the focus in the southern branch. When it does that there is no ridging in front of the system and so it simply moves more east than north. The model at 66 hours ( valid 12z Wed) is stringing the max out. This may be classic error in the model,for it is a global model and this is a relaitvely small scale system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2013 Share Posted February 11, 2013 NAM holding the southern energy back a little more than even 18z at 36hrs v. 42 hrs it's as if it is waiting for the northern energy to come down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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