FrederickWX Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Link To this major snowfall? Not major in the traditional sense, but the 1/17/13 southern storm dropped more in a number of southern locations than DCA has had all winter. http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-storm-iago-20130116 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The writing is on the wall...DCA does not break the streak this week. I'm still waiting on your multiple SNOstorms you called for last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Sounds better, I guess Nemo does no harm and since people seem to want to use names even dumb ones, It's OK. TWC it seems has a winner despite what I think. Personally, I prefer the snow monster of 2013. The whole naming of storms is really getting old. When it started a few years ago it was novel, even fun. The first time. Now it's getting ridiculous where everything has to have a name. How long before corporations start to buy the rights to name weather events? Their contemplating doing it to highways now. It's gotta stop. Why not just "The NE Blizzard of 2013"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Why use the name Nemo, it just feeds TWC. Nemo is either a fish or some guy in sub. Not sure how to answer your question. Over us I think the GFS QPF was actually better than the last euro I saw. The GFS did phase the low a little slower than the other models. Agree 100%. Sick and tired of hearing about Nemo. It is nothing more then an attempt by TWC to become relevant once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 i think the nameing of winter storms is a weather channel hype thing... lol and we all know how terribly inaccurate they are, so i guess the nameing of winterstorms is all they have lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'd be more into the naming thing if twc used pornstar names. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'd be more into the naming thing if twc used pornstar names. Winter Storm Hedgehog? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'd be more into the naming thing if twc used pornstar names. Looks like the NAM is going to hold served, it's a little slower with the southern stream vort/upper trough but has it really jazzy looking at 48hrs. Looks like the low would track to at least TN maybe KY before reforming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Looks like the NAM is going to hold served, it's a little slower with the southern stream vort/upper trough but has it really jazzy looking at 48hrs. Looks like the low would track to at least TN maybe KY before reforming. This is where my skill stops. Is this good or bad? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This is where my skill stops. Is this good or bad? I think it is OK as long as the whole thing gets shunted out south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think it is OK as long as the whole thing gets shunted out south of us. It should w/ the flow above us. Decent wall. Ull is closed @ 66 over ok/tx border. But it's the nam. And it looks really juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This is where my skill stops. Is this good or bad? I think neutral, its colder at 60hrs but also slower but still has a well defined 850 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The NAM seems ready to go all nuts with the blues and purples over someone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I think neutral, its colder at 60hrs but also slower but still has a well defined 850 low. "reform" is a 4 letter word...most of the time. But with the compressed flat flow above us it keeps it from doing damage by getting too far north right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Closed h5 vort in W AR at 72... again looks like NAM is cooking something big in its la la land Re-opens at 75 in AR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 This should be an epic run at 84, but I'm just happy it looks greater in the early panels. Do I sound like Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 "reform" is a 4 letter word...most of the time. But with the compressed flat flow above us it keeps it from doing damage by getting too far north right? Good question. There also is a vort coming across in the northern stream and at 72 hrs is near the MT/Dks border. Not sure what it's impact might have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 With the pattern being fairly zonal and not much of a PNA ridge, that would seem to strongly favor a flatter system sliding east or ENE off the coast. GFS solution isnt out of the question, but it just seems less likely given the west to east flow and no real ridging in the west. The Euro needs to trend a bit north and colder and that would work to give much of the area a light to moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The NAM seems ready to go all nuts with the blues and purples over someone. i dont think NAM is very accurrate till it gets inside 48 hrs, just my opinion, but still fun to look at sometimes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 i dont think NAM is very accurrate till it gets inside 48 hrs, just my opinion, but still fun to look at sometimes agreed but the slower speed of the vort inside of 48 is what is making the solution possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 So um... still hasn't transferred yet in N KY at 84... vort is close by SLP and weakening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 there's going to be more radar extrapolations on tuesday than rednecks at a monster truck show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Good question. There also is a vort coming across in the northern stream and at 72 hrs is near the MT/Dks border. Not sure what it's impact might have. Only worth talking about for another hour or so...but the vort in the dakotas amps the flow in front just enough to scare the crap out of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Only worth talking about for another hour or so...but the vort in the dakotas amps the flow in front just enough to scare the crap out of us. It's definitely a rainy run if you look at the torching booundary layer temps on Alan's site. Thank goodness it's the NAM but the lack of a high and the fact that the air mass isn't very cold is a concern even with the colder looking GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Only worth talking about for another hour or so...but the vort in the dakotas amps the flow in front just enough to scare the crap out of us. I saw that 81 and 84 hrs maps and thought "here we go again...it's ova'" if it's right, of course, but it's hard to think that a scenario that screws us won't be wrong since it hasn't been wrong in 2 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 If you add the nam and euro together and divide by 2....we get destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 We are getting close to those sw pieces phasing, no? Of course it could be wrong, as could my hypothesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 when I look at this map I think "no way this isn;t going right over us for a cold rain" http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&cycle=12ℑ=nam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_1000_500_thick.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's definitely a rainy run if you look at the torching booundary layer temps on Alan's site. Thank goodness it's the NAM but the lack of a high and the fact that the air mass isn't very cold is a concern even with the colder looking GFS run. There is plenty of moisture to work with if the temperatures can crash after the first few hours of precipitation, but no way of telling what happens afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I saw that 81 and 84 hrs maps and thought "here we go again...it's ova'" if it's right, of course, but it's hard to think that a scenario that screws us won't be wrong since it hasn't been wrong in 2 years in my opinion the NAM at 84 hrs is as accurate as the experts predicting the Ravens to lose the superbowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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