showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Yea, good thing the gfs has owned the euro this year with weak ns waves. While I agree that the GFS has owned the Euro quite often this year I don't know how you can basically discount it. At this point in time we should already be seeing adjustments with the Euro as it plays catchup as we have seen time and again this year. The fact that we have really yet to see that should give some pause on buying wholeheartedly with the GFS solution. And yes I agree with you that if we see the vort pass as modeled verify we will probably be good for some snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The Euro ENS mean is wetter than the Op, roughy .25-.3" for DCA. The Euro did blow for weak waves that hit NC in mid-Jan, really bad. The GFS was the best at this range and as we got closer the short range higher res models were the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 That latest GFS vort image that Bob showed is just about perfect for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 While I agree that the GFS has owned the Euro quite often this year I don't know how you can basically discount it. At this point in time we should already be seeing adjustments with the Euro as it plays catchup as we have seen time and again this year. The fact that we have really yet to see that should give some pause on buying wholeheartedly with the GFS solution. And yes I agree with you that if we see the vort pass as modeled verify we will probably be good for some snow here. The euro shows it pretty clear between 78-84 @ 500. GFS holds the dig and the euro opens it up. And I don't discount the euro either. But the 2 models aren't far apart at all. It's a small and subtle system. Little things mean everything. I think the real comedy comes when the nam is right and it cuts, transfers, and dryslots us while NE gets a foot on top of 30 feet on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I'm sure it could mess things up. Really seems to have little influence right now. Our vort is digging far enough south that the one up north won't have an easy time flattening it out. Do I wish the ns one wasn't there? Yep, but so far no biggie. I said last night that it was actually a good thing imho because it kept it from cutting on us by pushing it along whether it pushes it too hard or fast is the big issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 That latest GFS vort image that Bob showed is just about perfect for DC. Thank you for a small dose of optimism while I sit on a tiny weenie island with a school of sharks named deb trying to eat my feet. I've been banking on it all the way and so no reason to back down. It's hard to believe because we haven't had a pass like that since cell phones were invented but that doesn't mean it's impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 anyone know when the deadly accurate period is for gfs? if gfs even has one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The writing is on the wall...DCA does not break the streak this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The writing is on the wall...DCA does not break the streak this week. break what streak? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The writing is on the wall...DCA does not break the streak this week. I love when you post this stuff. Your record is worse than the 76 Buccaneers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Thank you for a small dose of optimism while I sit on a tiny weenie island with a school of sharks named deb trying to eat my feet. I've been banking on it all the way and so no reason to back down. It's hard to believe because we haven't had a pass like that since cell phones were invented but that doesn't mean it's impossible. I'm on the island. I feel pretty good about this one. Not a blockbuster, but like Ian called it last night, this looks like an old fashioned DC, MD snow storm.But if SNO is not on board, maybe I should jump in with the sharks. Edit: to be clear, Ian did not say it was going to happen, but was describing the model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 How sad and screwed up would it be if this storm turns out to be suppressed, and gives North Carolina and southern/central Virginia another major snowfall Link To this major snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The writing is on the wall...DCA does not break the streak this week. Despite what you'd read on DT's facebook page, the GFS is pretty good. Did the Euro nail Nemo? Most definitely. But I also have about 84" of Day 7-10 forecasted snow from the Euro this winter and I've also -5F on the season. If I recall, the GFS was much better with the Euro with the storm that central VA had last month (and gave DT snow). This scenario is comparable. Doesn't mean the GFS will score the coup, but it's not as if we're relying on the DGEX here. GFS ensembles are also quite supportive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 The euro shows it pretty clear between 78-84 @ 500. GFS holds the dig and the euro opens it up. And I don't discount the euro either. But the 2 models aren't far apart at all. It's a small and subtle system. Little things mean everything. I think the real comedy comes when the nam is right and it cuts, transfers, and dryslots us while NE gets a foot on top of 30 feet on the ground. It's a pain in the a** having limited access to the Euro. Between having only 24 hour panels and limited maps it is hard to see exactly what the Euro is doing and have to depend on extrapolation and commentary from these threads to fill in the missing information. From what I was looking at and reading from last night I was under the impression our area was being left high and dry but then someone just mentioned that the Euro ensembles now have the .25+ into the DC region so maybe the Euro is starting to play catch up and I hadn't realized it. Funny you mention the NAM. I was thinking the same thing when I mentioned the NAM's solution earlier this morning. This whole time I have been looking at suppression as the major concern and it would be a real kick in the pants if what does happen is a cutter and another NE HEC. Think if that were to happen I would just call it quits for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Chill I know your confident on this one...but by 3pm today your tune may change. Hope for your rep you verify...maybe they will name a storm for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Despite what you'd read on DT's facebook page, the GFS is pretty good. Did the Euro nail Nemo? Most definitely. But I also have about 84" of Day 7-10 forecasted snow from the Euro this winter and I've also -5F on the season. If I recall, the GFS was much better with the Euro with the storm that central VA had last month (and gave DT snow). This scenario is comparable. Doesn't mean the GFS will score the coup, but it's not as if we're relying on the DGEX here. GFS ensembles are also quite supportive. It's deaf ears man. GFS is a great model with it's flaws just like all of them. If someone doesn't know what they are they should stick to dt's page or accuwx boards. I've looked at more gfs panels this year than oprah's lost and gained pounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Chill I know your confident on this one...but by 3pm today your tune may change. Hope for your rep you verify...maybe they will name a storm for you I'm not worried about my rep but if you were about yours you would tie your hands behind you back when sitting in front of a pc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It seems the NAM is on its own vs the other major models. The 06Z run followed through with what the 00Z hinted at with a primary running to our north and west with the suggestion of a secondary forming off the MD/VA coast. And we know how that goes with hoping that the precip arrives before the primary warms the BL and then hoping the secondary takes over quick enough to change the rain back to snow, that is if we aren't being dry slotted to begin with. Good thing it is the NAM at 84 and goes against the globals that argue we need to be more worried about a southern slider as opposed to a cutter. Some of the GFS ensemble members are showing the same double low scenario. But as Bob has been pointing out to us, the 500 vort is the key and as modeled by the GFS Operational I don't believe it supports such a scenario. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's deaf ears man. GFS is a great model with it's flaws just like all of them. If someone doesn't know what they are they should stick to dt's page or accuwx boards. I've looked at more gfs panels this year than oprah's lost and gained pounds. You could look through ten years worth of gfs panels and never come close to the number of idiotic posts by SNO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's deaf ears man. GFS is a great model with it's flaws just like all of them. If someone doesn't know what they are they should stick to dt's page or accuwx boards. I've looked at more gfs panels this year than oprah's lost and gained pounds. Honest question...did the gfs mess up everything about Nemo or just the heavy qpf? I know it was pretty dry on the backside and down towards Philly which verified...and it only gave Boston 18" or so...but was it way off on other features too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 It's a pain in the a** having limited access to the Euro. Between having only 24 hour panels and limited maps it is hard to see exactly what the Euro is doing and have to depend on extrapolation and commentary from these threads to fill in the missing information. From what I was looking at and reading from last night I was under the impression our area was being left high and dry but then someone just mentioned that the Euro ensembles now have the .25+ into the DC region so maybe the Euro is starting to play catch up and I hadn't realized it. Funny you mention the NAM. I was thinking the same thing when I mentioned the NAM's solution earlier this morning. This whole time I have been looking at suppression as the major concern and it would be a real kick in the pants if what does happen is a cutter and another NE HEC. Think if that were to happen I would just call it quits for this winter. Good comment. I don't think any solution is yet off the table including the much maligned NAM's. I think i'd be a little more surprised if we didn't get any precip from the event than if we did despite the euro solution. However, I could see either being right. The best forecast right now is just to say there isa chance of rain or snow though rain to snow seems more likely than pure snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Chill Will will lead us to victory...2 inches of snow can not be this difficult. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Chill Will will lead us to victory...2 inches of snow can not be this difficult. Good god man. Please. Bob, I'm not one of the sharks. Heaven knows I'm usually in the optimist camp. I haven't made any good vs bad judgements on this, only that it seems many parts aren't nailed down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Honest question...did the gfs mess up everything about Nemo or just the heavy qpf? I know it was pretty dry on the backside and down towards Philly which verified...and it only gave Boston 18" or so...but was it way off on other features too? like I posted in the NEMO thread, NEMO qpf for ORH was .68" and Boston was .5" so was the GFS wrong with its dry runs? seems not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Honest question...did the gfs mess up everything about Nemo or just the heavy qpf? I know it was pretty dry on the backside and down towards Philly which verified...and it only gave Boston 18" or so...but was it way off on other features too? Why use the name Nemo, it just feeds TWC. Nemo is either a fish or some guy in sub. Not sure how to answer your question. Over us I think the GFS QPF was actually better than the last euro I saw. The GFS did phase the low a little slower than the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Good god man. Please. Bob, I'm not one of the sharks. Heaven knows I'm usually in the optimist camp. I haven't made any good vs bad judgements on this, only that it seems many parts aren't nailed down. I'm quick to get bummed by a bad run but with all the uncertainty I still hope that the GFS is right on this. There is a lot to be determined yet. It is rare to get ALL the models to be in 100% agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 like I posted in the NEMO thread, NEMO qpf for ORH was .68" and Boston was .5" so was the GFS wrong with its dry runs? seems not That was final storm-total QPF? That can't be right. I'm sure the wind prevented an accurate measurement if that was true. I don't care what kind of dynamics you're getting, you don't get 25-30" of snow from .5-.7" of QPF with temps in the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 I don't think comparing euro/gfs with the blizzard and this setup is a good comparison at all. Compare the gfs/euro with all the ns sw's and the ull that got southern va. I don't know which one is better but I can say that the gfs did just fine. I looped 500 the 0z gfs / euro panels side by side and they are actually different early on. The sw starts similar but already looks pretty different irt amplification before getting to tx. Euro is just flatter overall. NAM and GFS are hell bent on having it basically neutralish by tx. Euro is open in the front and stays that way. NAM is looking good already @ 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Why use the name Nemo, it just feeds TWC. Nemo is either a fish or some guy in sub. Not sure how to answer your question. Over us I think the GFS QPF was actually better than the last euro I saw. The GFS did phase the low a little slower than the other models. Ok...the Ctblizz top ob snow bonanza? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2013 Share Posted February 10, 2013 Ok...the Ctblizz top ob snow bonanza? Sounds better, I guess Nemo does no harm and since people seem to want to use names even dumb ones, It's OK. TWC it seems has a winner despite what I think. Personally, I prefer the snow monster of 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.